@BudgetModel

@Penn @Wharton Budget Model provides nonpartisan, research-based estimates and analysis on the fiscal impact of public policy.

 Philadelphia, PA
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/
Joined June 2014
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⏳ Last chance! There’s still time to apply for the Wharton Public Policy Certificate Program. Designed for Congressional staffers & policy professionals, this 6-session online program (May 29–Sept 25, 2026) provides a powerful framework …
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… for understanding the economics of public policy and assessing legislative proposals. Led by @KentOnMoney with insights from Wharton faculty & policy experts. Apply by April 22: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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We estimate an effective tariff rate (ETR) of 8.9 percent through February 2026, based on the latest trade and tariff data. We project that replacing the IEEPA with a new 10% global tariff rate lowers the ETR to 8.1 percent in the near-term.
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Read the full report here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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For forward-looking analysis, including long-term revenue and effective tariff rate projections, see our tariff simulator: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed… For real-time data on daily tariff revenue collections, see our Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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The administration is considering a substantial increase in the prevailing wage thresholds for H-1B workers. The proposal would raise average pay of selected H-1Bs by $20,611 (+18.4%) over the prior random lottery, nearly doubling the compensation impact of the new wage-weighted lottery.
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Read the full analysis here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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#PWBM is excited to announce we are accepting applications for the Wharton Public Policy Certificate Program! Designed for Congressional staffers and other public policy professionals, this 6-session free online program (May 29 – September 25, 2026) provides participants …
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… with a powerful framework for understanding the economics of public policy and the skills to assess a wide range of legislative proposals. The program is led by @KentOnMoney. Apply by April 22. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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We project that Social Security's OASI Trust Fund will deplete in 2032. We consider five reform options that vary in the amount of tax increases and benefit cuts and show how traditional analysis yields very different — even opposite — implications from more comprehensive modeling.
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Read the full analysis here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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We estimate an effective tariff rate of 10.3 percent through January 2026. We project that replacing the IEEPA tariffs with a new 10% global tariff rate lowers the ETR to 7.7 percent on a bias-corrected basis.
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Read the full report here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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For forward-looking analysis, including long-term revenue and effective tariff rate projections, see our tariff simulator: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed… For real-time data on daily tariff revenue collections, see our Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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Two recent Senate proposals — Senator Booker's KYPA and Senator Van Hollen's WATCA — widen the zero tax bracket with two different approaches, illustrating how mechanism determines cost, targeting, and distortions. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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Also check out our analysis of each Senator's full proposal: KYPA: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed… WATCA: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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Senator Van Hollen's Working Americans' Tax Cut Act pairs a new alternative maximum tax for low- and middle-income filers with a graduated millionaire surtax, increasing federal revenue by $264 billion over a decade. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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