Glassnode’s On-chain Model has re-entered the market for the first time since August 2025, when BTC was around $113,000. The current read: • Unrealized Profit Holding: Bullish • Selling Volumes: Bullish • Wealth Concentration: Bullish • On-chain Volumes: Bearish, but trending towards bullish 3 of 4 signals are now firing. The model avoided 29% of the subsequent downturn and has now re-entered around $80,000. Average holding periods are 6–9 months. Let’s see how this plays out over the months ahead.

Altcoins in one chart. 🟢 Market cap is still up 421% since 2019 🔴 The average altcoin is down 94% from its peak Yes the cap has cooled since its late 2024 high, but nowhere near as much as the coins themselves. Old projects die and new ones replace them. There's over 10x more alts now than in 2019.

Step 3: Combine metrics to create a stronger strategy. You can test different combinations of signals and see how they perform together rather than evaluating each metric in isolation. Increases hit rate up to 66% Increases Sharpe to 1.96

Step 2: See which individual metrics have been most indicative of returns and how you can optimize the parameters. For example, historically, when the Glassnode Skew Index (30D) has an RSI above 50.6, markets have generally performed well. Hit rate of 60%. Portfolio sharpe of 1.61

Step 1: Select the metrics you want to test.

Polled Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Gemini on one question: What % of Americans will have jobs in the future? Not nearly as bearish as I expected.

Update on Glassnode signals: They continue to outperform. Despite the recent pump: • Top model is Short • All others are Out No chase. No FOMO. On-chain structure still leans defensive. The edge is patience. #Bitcoin #Crypto #OnChain

Crypto Insights Group (CIG) reports that the average blockchain directional fund was down –16.9% last year, while BTC fell –6.5% and ETH –11.5%. That’s clear underperformance. Many strategies still rely primarily on price and market data, missing the context provided by on-chain fundamentals and derivatives signals. A few years ago, Glassnode published a set of model portfolios demonstrating how on-chain data can be applied systematically. Those models, by contrast, outperformed. Averaging roughly +1% on the year. Better data → better decisions. If you’d like to explore these models further, feel free to reach out.

365-day change in balances across crypto entities: Exchanges, ETFs, futures & options markets, and government wallets have each grown or declined by roughly $10–30B over the past year. That may sound substantial until you realize corporate treasuries have increased by approximately $100B over the same period. #BTC #glassnode #MSTR

Glassnode's Chart of the Week is out, with analysis from yours truly. Catch the full breakdown here: youtube.com/watch?v=H4K6l_T_…