Noooooooo!!!!!!!

I can say with certainty that this Gartner claim is indeed nonsense. Dealing with compute availability challenges, and maximizing what we could get out of the capacity we had, took up a very large chunk of my time over my last year at Microsoft.

In 2010, Gartner predicted that Windows Phone would overtake iOS market share by 2015. I don’t know anyone who takes these analysts seriously at least for emerging tech.

Each of these is facing existential disruption right now. While it would be great to see some adapt, I wouldn’t be comfortable picking any to confidently predict will do it.

None of us knows what Anthropic’s future looks like, but I’d rather own their stock than any of the other companies here.

I hit my Claude Max 20x quota for the first time last Sunday, with it resetting on Monday night. I had a banked reset expiring so I made some effort to make good use of it this week, and thanks to that I’m using two weeks worth of quota in one week. Between Monday at 9pm and Thursday at 2pm I had used 53% of the week’s quota. I hit 100% yesterday afternoon. How did I do that? At 2:30pm I had Ultracode mode (multi-agent extra high effort) do a bunch of research and planning based on a brief I gave it about an architectural overhaul I wanted to do with my prototype. It spun up several sub-agents and went for 4.5 hours researching, making 4 independent proposals, and then having 3 judges review them to pick an approach. Then it created its first draft of a discussion doc and had 7 critics + a triage judge review it, then iterated on that a few times before providing it to me. When that process was done around 7pm, another 10% of my quota had been used (some smaller independent threads probably accounted for 1-2% of that). The Ultracode thread then iterated with me and on Codex feedback through the evening, and then at 9pm it had the project coordinator kickoff 4 top-level regular High effort threads that worked through the night on phase 0 investigations and spikes, and together with the Ultracode thread had the RFC draft ready at 4AM. It then began working on Codex feedback. I then spent Friday day refining that plan and having it test some more variations of a few pieces, and I hit my weekly quota in the afternoon. I immediately used the banked reset they gave us last month to reset it back to zero. It iterated on more Codex feedback until 12:40AM. I was up way too late with friends last night so before I went to bed at 3AM I answered its last questions and it committed the RFC and kicked off new project-level threads to start implementation. Initially two and now three of them, and they’re still working on the core track of the plan. It’ll be another couple days (hopefully not much more) before the RFC is fully implemented. Right now my post-reset quota is 37% used, but thankfully the banked reset didn’t change my weekly reset time so Monday night it will go back to zero again, probably just in time so I don’t get blocked.

It is hard to convey how harmful and self-destructive this is for the United states. The flattening that began at the end of 2023 was primarily caused by Musk torching the Tesla brand. In 2022, Tesla accounted for two-thirds or more of US EV sales, and their rapid growth trajectory showed no signs of stopping. On the bright side, other manufacturers were starting to grow EV sales so the EV market kept growing. It's easy to look at this chart and think that the tax credits were sustaining that growth. But that isn't true. The reversal after the tax credits expired was primarily NOT caused directly by the credits going away, but rather the reaction to that and the overall policies, incentives, and direction set by the Trump administration. The revocation of those tax credits was just one prong of their attack. In Q3 2025, Audi's best-selling vehicle in the US was an electric model, the Q6, for the first time ever. You might think this would mean Audi would double down on EVs. However, before that quarter even began, Audi leadership decided that because of the Trump administration, EV demand in the US would decline, so they paused producing the US variants and adjusted their plans to focus on fossil fuel variants of their flagship models for 2027 and 2028. In Q4 of 2025, you could not buy a new Q6 in the US, they were no longer selling them. Think about that. The best-selling model in one quarter was not offered for sale in the next one. Was this a screw-up on Audi's part? Yeah, probably. But they were not alone. Most of the industry retreated on EVs because the government of the US was saying they did not want them. And now, we're all worse off for it.

I truly love Community Notes.

I'm surprised how bad the best coding LLMs are at designing optimal tool APIs for themselves.

Apparently my Codex usage meter is running backward today? It said 76% remaining last night, 80% this morning, and is up to 83% now. Did someone mix up "% used" with "% left" in a recent change?

We need to end “Super PACs” yesterday.

This.

Smart feature.

Haha perfect.

More and more when I encounter something in one thread that I realize another thread should know about, I find that Claude's project coordinator is already on top of it. One of several reasons Claude is my preferred coding agent solution right now.

Completely agree with this.