This is everything I’ve wanted to say about consumer AI but couldn’t. Actually, since the beginning, when people have asked me “what are people really buying on x402 / with agents?”, the answer has always been “nothing.”
Travel has always been the in-bubble demo of choice from a very San Francisco crowd, but it’s all empty calories for the reasons quoted.
I have talked to hundreds of builders and customers, and I’ve seen all the data…
And if you read between the lines and cut through the fog, it’s clear that consumers are only interested in ‘agents with money’ insofar as they can MAKE MONEY FOR THEM.
Rant that no one asked for:
My general take about consumer AI is that 99% of the things we've seen so far are super far-removed from reality
Most people feel like they don't have money to spend right now, so the use-cases around agents booking flights or trips or booking reservations or shopping just don't appeal to the average American consumer
I would argue that things that consumers purchase or "do" frequently enough (like ordering on Amazon, or calling Ubers, etc.) were obvious/annoying enough/frequent enough use-cases where we built amazing software UI/UX over the last decade that's been optimized to near ultimate efficiency that adding AI or agents on top would actually be making it *less* efficient. Like really *worth-it* use cases are generally "one-clickable" by great consumer products/platforms already
There's a lot of magical moments/wow factors/sci-fi things with agents that come from super annoying workflows (like booking flights or wrangling personal errand stuff in gmail or etc.) but are just not frequent enough for the average person. They're actually the long-tail. For example, 20% of the world's population has flown on an airplane at least once in their lifetime, meaning 80% of people globally have never set foot on a plane. Only 11%-15% of the global population flies in any given year!
This is not me saying that consumer AI is dumb, I'm actually extremely excited and optimistic, but it kind of goes back to things we've always known about consumer, which is:
1. Save/make consumers money
2. Make consumers entertained or famous
(And, of course, vices)
Even like, regardless of your views on prediction markets/sports betting, I think you have to understand that comes from a place of the average person feeling like they 1) don't have enough so 2) they want to do what they can to jump the socioeconomic rungs
Anyway, there's an extremely *wide* space of opportunity and I'm very excited to see the absolutely insane new AI/innovative stuff that builders come up with, but also I really want to see things that aren't just dressed up versions of 2010s prosumer/productivity software (and the problems that came with it)
P.S. The 90/10/1 rule still applies to consumer: most consumers want to *consume* (and lurk) rather than create!