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Speaking to @RewertHoffer for @NZZ, Bourse & Bazaar Foundation’s Director of Client Advisory Darius Barik explained that the depletion of Iran’s oil reserves at sea is significant, but it does not necessarily mean it will push Tehran to concede to U.S. demands. Barik noted that years of sanctions have accustomed Iran’s economy to sustained pressure. He also considered a popular uprising over economic conditions unlikely, as many Iranians are focused on getting by rather than joining mass protests. His assessment highlights the limits of assuming that greater economic hardship will translate into political concessions. Read the full article: nzz.ch/international/irans-s…

Our MENA - Financing the Green Transition session at the Rihla Summit examined how investment can reach underserved communities and respond to local priorities. The session was held in partnership with the @CarbounInst and moderated by Karim Elgendy, who joined Rihla MENA council members Mustafa Ansari, Dina Zayed, @ShadaElsharif, and Syed Husain Quadri to discuss adaptation, stronger project preparation, and the policies and coordination needed to turn investment interest into lasting benefits. Watch the full session to hear more about our participants perspectives on green investment in the MENA region: youtu.be/_66_2erK1Gs?si=OLY_…

In a new Bourse & Bazaar Foundation analysis, @khalidaljufairi examines why Saudi Arabia’s expanding security commitments have yet to translate into effective deterrence, and what is needed for lasting security. He argues that while the Mecca pact with Turkey and Pakistan signals a commitment to collective defence, the terms of military intervention remain unclear. Meanwhile, Trump’s refusal to engage militarily against the Houthis following Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s request highlights the limits of American support and raises questions about what Saudi Arabia can expect from its security partners. Al-Jufairi also emphasizes that the Houthis retain their own political and territorial ambitions, meaning reduced Iranian support would not necessarily lead to restraint or a settlement. Read the full analysis: bourseandbazaar.substack.com…

In “Economic Sanctions and the Politics of Humanitarianism,” published in the Journal of International Humanitarian Action, Bologna Initiative for Sanctions Relief member Sara Moussavi argues that aid withdrawal can function as an additional form of economic pressure, compounding the effects of sanctions and undermining humanitarian protections. She calls for clearer, more consistent exemptions and practical support to ensure aid can reach those who need it, otherwise, “sanctions and aid cuts risk becoming mutually reinforcing attacks on civilian survival.” Read the full article: link.springer.com/article/10…

At the Rihla Summit last month, Dr. Nicholas Howarth of Frontier25 and Nadim Abillama of the International Energy Agency joined moderator Imad Ahmed, Rihla Initiative Senior Fellow, to discuss practical steps to reduce methane emissions. Held in partnership with Frontier25 and @Gmethanehub, the spotlight session launched the UAE Methane Policy Review 2026. The review outlines six policy recommendations, including the integration of methane targets into national and investment strategies. The session also presented the Rihla Methane Declaration, aimed at supporting cooperation on methane reduction as part of the initiative’s wider mission to advance green economic growth across the Gulf and Global South. Watch the session: lnkd.in/gPEqkrax

Speaking on the @AlRaqibPodcast in September, Senior Fellow @KhalifaBushhab explains why Gulf states continue to pursue diplomacy with Iran, even amid hostile relations. He notes that while the United States can declare its military operations over, Gulf countries will have to deal with the aftermath of the war. Their response must therefore consider what best serves their long-term interests. He argues that “the diplomatic path is the best option. It reflects strength and foresight.” Watch the full podcast (in Arabic): youtu.be/kXKU99wHqag?si=h3mf…

In his Vision address at the Rihla Summit, H.E. Dr. Ali Hamed Al-Mulla of the Gulf Organization for Industrial Consulting called for a coordinated GCC approach to green industrial investment – one that moves beyond competing national projects towards joint financing, common standards, and coordinated project development. He argued that investment success should be measured by the lasting benefits it creates, including stronger local manufacturing, a skilled workforce, stronger suppliers, and improved infrastructure. Moderated by @dawud_ansari, the session explored how these partnerships can create lasting benefits for the Gulf and host countries across the Global South. Watch the full session: youtu.be/Pxr4S0PUW2U?si=1WHJ…

The war has exposed the limits of Gulf states’ existing security strategies, Senior Fellow @KhalifaBushhab argues in a new article for @Rutba_GCC. For four decades, GCC states operated on the assumption that bilateral ties with Washington, diplomatic channels to Tehran, and economic relationships with Iran could shield them from regional conflict. These arrangements, he writes, have failed to protect individual countries from the war’s consequences. Al Suwaidi also argues that Washington has treated the Gulf’s exposure to attacks as a bargaining chip, pointing to Trump’s August 30 remarks to Fox News describing Tehran’s attacks on its neighbors as “very good.” He concludes that Gulf states must have a direct voice in negotiations shaping their security, beyond their roles as mediators, hosts, or sources of financing. Read the full article: rutba.net/%D8%A2%D8%B1%D8%A7…

Hamid Bovard, CEO of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), has been appointed as Iran's acting oil minister. Reports suggest that a factor in his predecessor's departure were concerns about the management of mechanisms used to sell sanctioned oil and recover foreign currency proceeds. This brings the NIOC's role to the fore. As we highlighted in this recent Critical Questions piece, the trading of Iranian crude and its derivative products is where NIOC’s operations have evolved most in recent years as US secondary sanctions made Iranian oil harder to sell through conventional channels. NIOC has not ceded its core functions and remains a technically capable operating company. But authority over NIOC is distributed across the wider Iranian state, with the company embedded in the wider political system of decision-making. Get in touch with Darius Barik if you're interested in accessing the full piece or discussing any related matters. Link to the CQ piece: open.substack.com/pub/bourse…

In his introductory remarks at the inaugural Rihla Summit, Executive Director of the Rihla Initiative @MehranHaghirian reflected on the initiative’s work to date and outlined its next phase: translating research and dialogue into practical opportunities for green economic growth. Launching the Rihla Implementation Brief, he emphasised that promising investments require careful preparation – from identifying customers and securing infrastructure to understanding risks and ensuring projects benefit local firms, workers, and communities. Drawing on the work of Rihla’s regional councils and focus groups, his remarks set the context for the Summit’s discussions on how Gulf investment can support the economic priorities of partner countries. Watch his full remarks: youtu.be/4QRmTzC72QI?si=kD5q… Read the Rihla Implementation Brief: rihlainitiative.org/implemen…

On 29 September, policymakers, researchers, investors, and practitioners gathered in Abu Dhabi for the inaugural Rihla Summit for Green Economic Growth, convened by the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation in partnership with @AGDAUAE. Over the coming weeks, we will share session recordings and photo highlights, revisiting discussions on advancing green economic growth across the Gulf and Global South. The series will cover regional perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, Central Asia and the Caucasus, Sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and the Gulf, alongside focused discussions on hydrogen, green industrialization, sustainable agriculture, and green urban development. Follow along as we highlight the ideas, insights, and opportunities for cooperation explored throughout the Summit. View the Summit session recordings here: youtube.com/@rihlainitiative

More oil may be passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but this does not mean shipping has returned to normal or that the U.S. has won the war. Ships remain under attack, and moving oil through the region remains risky and expensive. In a recent article for @RStatecraft, the @QuincyInst's online publication, @KelleyBVlahos cited Bourse & Bazaar Foundation macroeconomic analyst @tedla_ezana on why increased oil shipments have not eased market uncertainty. Without a resolution to the war and an end to the threat of attacks on shipping, oil markets remain under pressure, making prices difficult to forecast. His comments highlight why recovering oil flows alone are not enough to resolve the crisis. Read the full article: responsiblestatecraft.org/ho…

In a recent article for @FortuneMagazine, Jason Ma quoted a post on X by @yarbatman warning that Iran still has the capacity to target regional oil infrastructure, including drilling and refining capacity, and may escalate the conflict if the current situation persists and diplomatic opportunities continue to be rejected. Although Persian Gulf oil flows have reached prewar levels, this comes at an extreme cost. Fortune’s citation of Esfandyar’s insight highlights why recovering flows should not be mistaken for normal shipping conditions or lasting security, and why diplomatic efforts remain critical to preventing further escalation. Read the full article: fortune.com/2026/10/10/ship-…

This weekend, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, warned that Tehran could target subsea cables and data centres if the U.S.-Iran war were to re-escalate. As we highlighted in our recent Critical Questions piece, by @yarbatman and @tedla_ezana it is important to disentangle the risks to cable and data centre infrastructure given the distinct capabilities required to target them and the likely impacts of successful strikes. In this note we examined why undersea cables have not yet been targeted and the circumstances in which it would be likely to change. Get in touch with Darius Barik [[email protected]] if you are interested in accessing the full piece or discussing any related matters. Link to the CQ piece: open.substack.com/pub/bourse…

While U.S. sanctions and the naval blockade continue to destabilize Iran’s economy, it remains unclear whether this pressure will push Tehran’s leadership towards renewed diplomatic talks or an end to the war. In a recent article, @TheEconomist examined the severe toll of collapsing oil exports, a weakening currency, and disrupted trade, citing Bourse & Bazaar Foundation’s analysis, “Aviation Sanctions Are Threatening Iran’s Medical Supply Chains,” by @yarbatman and Josefine Petrick. Our analysis estimates that around 60% of Iran’s medical imports arrive by air, highlighting how sanctions targeting the refueling or servicing of Iranian airlines threaten access to medical supplies and pharmaceuticals. The citation draws attention to the humanitarian consequences of aviation sanctions and the risks to medical supply chains that vulnerable people depend on. Read the full article: economist.com/middle-east-an… For the Bourse & Bazaar aviation sanctions analysis: open.substack.com/pub/bourse…