👻重度懶惰 合約自動交易實驗室 鏈上韭菜 10/11爆倉損失90%資金 回歸當農夫 poly自動賠錢機

Joined November 2022
實盤自動跑了三年 1000多天的實盤沒有一次爆倉,總績效約160% 現在看來後悔是自己為什麼沒有在這上面放更多錢自己跑就好 一個策略擁有明確執行的訊號 停損即停利 開始執行到現在0爆倉 這段時間唯一爆倉就是自我感動的手動單 直接把自己炸死了🫠
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Boo_tick_ retweeted
“Full access” 😂
Day 1 of vibecoding
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看了一下盤 poly 5m都在最後幾秒拉或砸 超屌 玩個屁
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very soon too
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Boo_tick_ retweeted
I have been playing on polymarket for almost 2 years. Today is the day I feel most angry about polymarket team. The ghost fill problem is getting much worse and those bastards are doing 50k resting orders both sides. I am getting 3% rewards on markets I suppose to get 50+%. The team said they would ban all those accounts but I think they are doing some lousy job. It is very easy to ban them. Just track big accounts like me or domah etc, check their backend you see failed transactions then you know which accounts are at fault. Check their ip and linked accounts and ban them all. It is easy. I was doing Amazon 20 years ago, Jeff Bezos know how to ban those Chinese cheaters. I don’t get it why poly is not doing things. The whole order book look like shit now. For 2 years I never requests anything from polymarket but I just think the did too bad this time the whole upgrade was not planned well. And as the #1 lp farmer by far. I suggest that poly should kinda compensate all lp farmer that are still doing lp after the upgrade till Monday’s permanent fix is deployed. (And I kinda skeptical if that upgrade really works) At least pay them a few times more based on their pro rata share of the rewards earned. And perhaps give me one polymarket necklace that identical to Paul Logan’s that sold to Pawn Star Rick’s at $30k (well this part is a joke but maybe Shayne should really consider it) This is so bad that even I as a lp farmer that keeps on farming for 650+ days thinking about quit farming. And it seems to me that if those bastards made like 100k accounts before Monday they might still can keep on doing that? I really hope the team can seriously address this issue. @shayne_coplan @_kanarazu_ @Polymarket @mustafap0ly
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幹這好像不是什麼好事
Vibe 了一个 Polymarket 当前禁用区域的可视化 基本上多半个地球都没法用了 🤡 数据参考⬇️ docs.polymarket.com/api-refe…
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真是謝了狗屎盤 都在最後破價 讚 @Polymarket
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Boo_tick_ retweeted
This is my 3rd week as VP of Engineering DeFi at @Polymarket , and I'm going to be straight: the traction @Polymarket has seen has massively outpaced our infrastructure, and we haven't done nearly enough to scale to keep up. I hear you, and fixing this is our entire focus. We're a major company now, and we need to engineer like one. Here's exactly what we're doing: - Onchain data latency. We're working on making this near-instant so the experience is incredible. - Chain migration. We need more block space, cheaper gas and much smaller block times so settlement is instant. - Transactions are getting cancelled. We understand this is one of the most frustrating issues right now, and we have a complete fix coming very soon. - Massive focus on the website to make it faster, more responsive, and with better UX. - We added observability everywhere. Proper alerting so we catch issues ourselves, market makers should not be the ones telling us something is down. That's been unacceptable, and we know it. - E2e tests throughout, starting with the CLOB, so issues get caught in CI before anything ships. - CLOBv2 is not a rewrite. It won't improve performance or stability on its own; it's an upgrade that unlocks us to move fast right after. We'll do better with communication next time. - We are rebuilding the CLOB from the ground up. Most important thing we're doing. Without it, we can't be the best DeFi exchange in the world. We know it, we're on it, it's mission critical. - Unified TypeScript SDK for all APIs, which is shipping soon. - Unified API. One WS connection for everything, with a schema that's actually readable. - New Polymarket contract in the works that unlocks things that are simply impossible on the current protocol. - New hires: Head of QA Automation, Head of Dev Tooling, Head of Internal Tooling, Head of Data Engineering. - Smaller, dedicated teams. Fewer focus points per person, clearer ownership. People do what they're good at and are accountable for it. - Working closely with customer support to give them real debugging tools so any user issue gets properly diagnosed, not lost. - Proper communication with marketing and market makers so everyone knows what's coming and when, and MM can submit feature requests with a clear path to get them into engineering and shipped. - Working with 4 security teams daily to ensure we're super secure and that funds are always safe. - Perps incoming. Brand new contracts and a backend built from scratch in Rust. We're proud of this one. - A lot of other fixes are running in parallel right now. Starting next Friday, I will be posting weekly engineering updates. I joined because I genuinely believe in what @Polymarket is trying to do. @shayne_coplan built this so the world has somewhere to go to find out what's actually going to happen, not what the media thinks, not what a pundit says, but what thousands of people are willing to put money on. But right now, our engineering isn't living up to that. We've let people down, and I'm not going to dress that up. I came here to fix it, and that's exactly what we're going to do. The next few months are going to speak for themselves. Stay with us.
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已经不止有多个项目找我测一测他们的AI trading架构了 我就简单说几点吧 1. 拿长期实盘出来,短期妖币这种没有 max dd 的不代表什么,幸存者偏差而已。随便挑一个已经归零的币倒着回测,曲线一样漂亮 2. 如果 Sharpe ratio > 5,基本上可以确定是过拟合、look-ahead bias 或者数据泄漏。Medallion 常年也就 2-3,你一个人在家跑出 7,自己心里要有b数 3. 你拿一段 crypto bull market 的数据去测,和你拿一段大类市场的数据回测是不一样的,完全的 overfitting,基本我不看。最起码 2018、2022 两轮熊市能走通,再跑一轮 walk-forward,才算一个策略 4. 手续费、滑点、funding rate 都得建进去。Binance 的 maker/taker、VIP 档位、BNB 折扣一层层算下来,模型不准的话 backtest 和实盘能差出一倍年化,这是常态 5. 策略容量比收益率更值得看。10 万刀跑得动,不代表 100 万刀还能跑。小币深度就那么点,你一进场自己就把自己的信号打掉,backtest 里完全 reflect 不出来 6. 确实 crypto quant 没那么卷,但套利机会一直在被蚕食——funding arb、现货期货 basis、跨所价差,基本已经被做市商和 HFT 吃干净了。高频做不了,纯因子也没空间,剩下能做的只有趋势和 mean reversion 这两条老路 7. Alpha 有半衰期。策略上线三个月还能跑,算及格;半年还在,算不错;一年还有,大概率是运气好或者你的规模还没到引起注意的量级。别把一次 bull run 的红利当永续 alpha,你还没有那么牛逼 8. Grid search 出来的"最优参数"99% 是过拟合。真正稳的参数,是你在一个区间里随便挑都能跑,而不是精确到小数点后两位才 work。参数稳健性比单点收益重要一百倍,这点做过的人都懂 9. 2017 ICO、2020 DeFi summer、2021 meme、2022 LUNA/FTX、2023 AI 叙事,每一段市场结构完全不同。你在上一段拟合出来的"规律",换个 regime 直接归零,还倒亏手续费 10. 交易所风险永远比你想的大。FTX 归零、API 限流、插针爆仓、小所跑路、币安突然下架,这些都是"一次就结束游戏"的事。你年化 50% 抵不过一次交易所暴雷,这跟策略多牛逼没关系,做山寨的就要考虑到流动性和“下架风险” 11. backtest 上曲线波动看着很美,真到自己账户里连续三周净值下跌,90% 的人会关掉程序手动调参 12. 分清楚你赚的是 alpha 还是 beta。牛市里所有人都是 quant 大师,熊市一来只剩 beta 的人全被冲走。把多头暴露剥离出来单独看 alpha 曲线,大多数所谓"策略"根本没 alpha,就是变相 long BTC 加一点波动率。 13. ML 在 quant 里有大量虚假繁荣。LSTM、Transformer、强化学习被吹上天,实际在 SNR 极低的金融时序上,一个朴素动量因子加合理风控,能打过你调一万次的 XGBoost 真JB学习起来,quant是真的难得一笔
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Polymarket's V2 exchange upgrades go live April 22nd. The upgraded exchange is now open to all for testing. 🚨 If you use our API or clients, there's migration work to do before then: → Upgrade your SDK/ API integration → New exchange contract addresses & order struct → Collateral moves to pUSD (wrap USDC.e via the Collateral Onramp) We expect ~1 hour of downtime on April 22nd at ~11am UTC. Open limit orders will be cancelled during the switch. Funds and positions are safe. Please note that the V1 exchange will stop working after the migration. Migration guide: docs.polymarket.com/v2-migra… Security: Our CTFv2 contracts are open sourced & audited by Cantina + Quantstamp. $5 million bug bounty program is live on Cantina: cantina.xyz/bounties/ff945ca… Changelog: docs.polymarket.com/changelo…
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來了 他們來了
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二月的時候剛入場 試過套利 yes no<1 自繪情緒均線 追幣安價格延遲 等等等總共五六個操作方式 整整一路虧一個月總共燒掉了800多🥹 本金剩下130u左右決定測試最後一個也是我一開始最看不起的策略 半個月時間加上一些手打的訊號單終於把洞填起來了 後半部分開始就全自動不手打了 之後就繼續觀察
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是可以這樣順利的嗎 @Polymarket
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I clearly placed the orders simultaneously, and everything else executed normally—so why is XRP still getting filled in an old, already closed market? Sometimes other assets like BNB or HYPE also have similar issues. @Polymarket
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我明明同步下單 其他都正常成交了為什麼Xrp 還會交易到舊的已關閉的市場 有時候其他幣種如Bnb hype也會有類似狀況 新市場都開始了還會吃到舊市場是怎麼回事🤨🤨🤨
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The new market has already started, so why is it still matching orders from the old market? 🤨🤨🤨
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絲滑 可以慢慢調整倉位放大一點了
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久違的龜TALK來了 (半年沒錄了) 幣圈雖然很熊,但還是有牛人 @jstin0502 從電競選手到球鞋轉售、轉向幣圈、最近又炒卡牌,他如何建構完整的交易系統的? 他曾經把資產做到7位數美金FTX 一夜歸零 大多數人在那之後就消失了 他選擇重新開始,他的交易頻率少但看準都是重壓! 重壓$60 的 Coinbase 和 $20 的 Hood 之後更創下無數戰功: ZEC $80 抱到 $700 銀從 $38 重倉至破百獲利了結 最近還有石油80重倉買入 (以上戰績部分都在他推特公開分享,且都是M級收益) 我們一起來聊聊這些重倉投資後面的思考邏輯 時間:4/1 21:00 主題 : 叫白淫交易員好了 xitter.cf/i/spaces/1NGaraE… (我很少找交易員聊,因為主觀認為幣圈99.9%的交易員都是人設,但這位是真高手)
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