CONFIRMED: Geolocated analysis confirms that the Saudi Aramco Refinery in Rabigh, Saudi Arabia is currently ablaze following strikes from Ansar Allah (Houthis).

SOURCE SAYS LARGE EXPLOSIONS HIT JEDDAH OIL REFINERY - NAYA

Yes, this conflict with the Islamic Republic is not going to be short, sharp, cheap, or easy. But that is a baked-in product of letting this threat fester and metastasize for so long. Trump may have sharpened the desire for this regime to have a nuke through direct attacks, but he (and Israel) have gutted their capacity to aggressively pursue it through the use of force. But here is where I respectfully disagree most, @NickKristof: the optics and politics surrounding saying the war has entrenched hardliners whereas they already occupied the commanding heights of the regime anyway. The last 5, not 1 or 2, Secretaries of the SNSC are IRGC and Iran-Iraq War veterans, for example. Worse, focusing on entrenching hardliners can make it sound like the pre-Feb 28 alternative in Iran was Switzerland, not Khamenei Sr.’s Islamic Republic which killed thousands of Iranian protestors on an absolutely unprecedented scale and manner not just in the 47-year history of the regime, but also in contemporary Iranian history.

Prices, since start of the year. European natural gas: +165% UK natural gas: +154% Heating oil: +112% Gasoline: +105% Brent crude: +68% US crude oil: +58% Coal: +38%

Reuters reports Saudi Arabia is preparing a new offensive against Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, potentially within weeks. Yemeni forces would lead the ground assault with Saudi air support, targeting Bab el-Mandeb or launching coordinated attacks on multiple fronts.

With the two tankers hit today in the southern corridor (1 inbound/Ambrey, 1 outbound/UKMTO), Iran struck *at least* seven tankers in five days.