5 Key reasons why Bitcoin's total network hashrate is unlikely to repeat the persistent growth rate it experienced from 2021–2025: 1⃣ Bitcoin mining economics were VERY attractive in 2021. BTC hit $30k, $40k, $50k and $60k for the first time. China also largely banned Bitcoin mining, causing global hashrate to drop significantly. The miners that remained made boatloads of money, attracting large pools of capital and public companies into the industry. Even as BTC dropped significantly in 2022, these companies continued hashing and expanding because they had already committed so many resources to the effort. 2⃣ These same companies and pools of capital have shifted away en masse from Bitcoin mining over the past year or so in pursuit of more attractive AI/HPC economics. Even if Bitcoin rises 100% tomorrow, that doesn't necessarily mean this capital & capacity comes back to Bitcoin mining, as much of it is being committed to long-duration AI/HPC projects & contracts. 3⃣ ASIC efficiency improvements face diminishing returns. It's becoming harder to materially improve the machines themselves, especially as many of the semiconductor companies and supply chains involved increasingly prioritize the much larger AI/HPC opportunity. 4⃣ Power is increasingly the scarce resource. AI companies can sign extremely long-duration contracts with investment-grade counterparties, making AI infrastructure potentially more attractive and easier to finance than Bitcoin mining for large-scale players. This wasn't nearly as important a competitive dynamic during the 2021–2024 mining buildout. 5⃣ The network is now starting from a vastly larger base. Growing from 150 EH/s to 300 EH/s requires adding 150 EH/s. Growing from 1,000 EH/s to 2,000 EH/s requires adding 1,000 EH/s. Both represent 100% growth, but the latter requires roughly 6.7× more incremental hashpower—and therefore vastly more ASIC capacity, infrastructure and power, all of which are increasingly competing with AI/HPC workloads. TLDR: Hashrate may continue growing nominally, but the structural forces that drove extraordinary hashrate growth from 2021–2025 are weakening, increasing the possibility that Bitcoin price appreciation outpaces difficulty growth and creates a more favorable environment for hashprice (i.e. better economics for those who stay and mine).

My biggest realization regarding @Blockware's offering is that it is first and foremost a tax mitigation strategy. Many people have high ordinary income, but limited options to reduce their tax burden. While people may be inclined to compare buying Bitcoin miners vs buying Bitcoin... the more appropriate comparison is buying miners vs other strategies which aim to reduce taxes via investment in income generating assets — such as oil/natural gas drilling, aircraft leasing, real estate, or solar projects. High-net-worth individuals and businesses have a tax strategy *in addition to* their investment strategy. Starting thinking & acting like a HNWI or business!

I'm pumped to be joining the @Blockware team! It's clear to me that individuals can benefit tremendously from Blockware's offering — in terms of stacking more Bitcoin and minimizing taxes. I absolutely loved my 4+ years at Swan. I worked with so many great clients & coworkers, and I look forward to maintaining those relationships for years to come. I have tons of respect for Cory, Yan, Brady, Brandon and the whole team at Swan. You'll be hearing more from me about Blockware soon! xitter.cf/Blockware/status/20799…