七年之病当求三年之艾 || RT≈Endorsement. Views My Own. He/Him || US politics and elections nerd || 偶尔用明史反党

Joined June 2016
搬家搬家
正在考虑把中文内容更新完全转到 Threads 上面,隔壁的推荐算法虽然时不时奖励一些脑残港台水军号,但没有被币圈 AI 蓝标营销号彻底占领还是好上太多了 可能以后这里变成一个只会讽刺美国佬的纯英文账号
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
A journalist asked Zelensky: “Don’t you think Trump has made you a scapegoat for his own problems?” The Ukrainian president smiled knowingly and replied: “That is my answer.” The room erupted in laughter and applause.
Zelensky vows to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries if allies provide air defense missiles “You decided that we shouldn’t attack Russian oil refineries. But they will keep attacking us. Then give us missiles so we can shoot down ballistic missiles,” he said. “We were attacked. Our people were killed. It is perfectly reasonable that we have the right to defend ourselves. All the analysis shows that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have no impact on prices,” the Ukrainian president added. Zelensky emphasized that the lifting of sanctions against Russia came as a surprise to everyone.
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米尔斯海默其实就是基辛格没当官的版本 😁 要是他当上特朗普的国务卿或者国安顾问,高低给中东拉美来点小小的孟加拉东帝汶柬埔寨老活动限时返场活动震撼
这两周看见好几个简中意见领袖在乌克兰事件上引用米尔斯海默。他并非以著书立说为业的严肃政治学者,而是凭借学者身份在媒体迎合庸众的网红政治学家。 我以前对他的评价:完全脱离现实的“现实主义”政治家。 现在对他的评价:毫无廉耻的欺世盗名之辈。 他在俄乌问题上几乎所有判断都是错的。 挑几个片段摘录一下: 2022年2月:“我不认为俄罗斯会入侵乌克兰。” 2023年9月:“乌克兰注定要失败。” 2024年1月:“认为乌克兰能在2024年守住阵地简直荒谬。” 2025年4月:“乌克兰能撑到2025年以后简直难以想象。” 2026年7月:“俄罗斯人正在缓慢推进。”
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
这两周看见好几个简中意见领袖在乌克兰事件上引用米尔斯海默。他并非以著书立说为业的严肃政治学者,而是凭借学者身份在媒体迎合庸众的网红政治学家。 我以前对他的评价:完全脱离现实的“现实主义”政治家。 现在对他的评价:毫无廉耻的欺世盗名之辈。 他在俄乌问题上几乎所有判断都是错的。 挑几个片段摘录一下: 2022年2月:“我不认为俄罗斯会入侵乌克兰。” 2023年9月:“乌克兰注定要失败。” 2024年1月:“认为乌克兰能在2024年守住阵地简直荒谬。” 2025年4月:“乌克兰能撑到2025年以后简直难以想象。” 2026年7月:“俄罗斯人正在缓慢推进。”
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
Observation from covering politics for 15+ years: establishment Dems have long over-indexed on how much voters care about “bipartisanship.” No, they care about results—they’d prefer a partisan bill with deliverables (eg $2K stimulus checks) over a bipartisan bill like the bank bailout. When politicians like Obama linked it to a vision they liked, it worked. But voters do not care if the powerful in Washington are chummy and getting along. “Bipartisanship” can easily code as join forces to help special interests, which is a net negative in a populist moment. What seems to have shaken that Dem belief lately is Trump winning every swing state plus the popular vote in 2024 while running on retribution.
Replying to @sahilkapur
Damn, no wonder she lost. Nobody gives a shit about “bipartisanship” anymore.
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从政治领导层为了保持权力/影响力的一己私欲而漠视多数民众的实际政治需求这点来说,这几十年来藏人和巴勒斯坦人面临的处境是非常类似的。鼠目寸光、高估自己谈判筹码而错失达成协议的良机、自愿成为大国地缘博弈中的弃子等等,阿拉法特与达赖如出一辙。对比起库尔德人“只把山脉当朋友”,完全相形见绌
Replying to @degewa
😅问题是达赖这六十多年都没申请其他国籍,法律上户口还落在布达拉宫。2010 前后秘密谈判的时候还公开说过自己将会拿着中国护照回拉萨。您这是在用文化上的认同偷换概念,逃避回答严肃的法律和政治问题
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说不客气一点,像 @degewa 这样的文化精英所表现出的焦虑态度,其实和港台同行是非常相似的,共同点就是他们的 nation construction narrative 完全背离了变化越来越快的政治现实
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
《唯红花绽放》作者、美国华裔记者冯哲芸,即将于10月出版新书《心为故土燃烧:叙利亚内战中的维吾尔武装人员》。 作者追问:是什么驱使数千名来自中国西部沙漠和城市的维吾尔男女奔赴叙利亚内战前线? 10月8日,《China Books Review》上刊登了该书部分精彩内容。 叙利亚政权更迭后,维吾尔武装人员面临新抉择:留下,还是返乡? 2024年12月,叙利亚反对派武装进入大马士革,一群来自中国新疆的维吾尔武装人员乘坐坦克和装甲车驶入首都,挥舞着浅蓝色旗帜。街头民众向他们投掷糖果、与他们拥抱,而不少战士却流下眼泪。他们庆祝的,不仅是叙利亚战争的胜利,更是一个关于故土的梦想。然而,随着巴沙尔·阿萨德政权垮台,这些在叙利亚战斗了十余年的流亡者突然发现,战争结束并不意味着归乡之路已经打开。对他们而言,如何在异国建立家园,同时维持返回新疆的愿望,成为比战场胜负更复杂的难题。 从战场边缘走向新政府 叙利亚战争期间,维吾尔武装人员只是反对派联盟中的一支力量,主要活动于阿勒颇和伊德利卜等地。随着阿萨德政权于2024年12月8日垮台,他们的处境迅速改变。 在新政府领导人艾哈迈德·沙拉的框架下,部分维吾尔指挥官进入重组后的国防部担任高级职务。原突厥斯坦伊斯兰党(TIP)被解散,其人员正式编入叙利亚国家军队第84旅,军饷由国防部支付,并与叙利亚士兵共同接受训练。叙利亚政府还在讨论是否向部分维吾尔居民授予公民身份。 这一变化为维吾尔社群提供了新的生存空间,却也带来政治与社会融入的挑战。长期参与内战的外国武装人员在叙利亚社会中普遍受到怀疑。政权更迭后,一名维吾尔指挥官专程前往传统上支持阿萨德政权的拉塔基亚,在当地清真寺向居民解释,他们自2012年以来一直在叙利亚,并希望被视为当地社会的一部分,而不是新的麻烦制造者。 约两万人社群的长期难题 文章援引维吾尔指挥官乔赫塔尔的说法称,叙利亚维吾尔社群在战时已扩大至约两万人。十多年来,他们在伊德利卜建立了学校、商店、福利服务和内部安全体系,一些人还成为医生、学生和企业经营者。 和平带来了新的需求:不断增长的家庭需要住房,青少年需要大学教育,维吾尔语教师也需要更高的薪酬。与此同时,部分来自土耳其的维吾尔人开始返回叙利亚。曾于2018年离开叙利亚、在伊斯坦布尔经营餐馆的努尔梅麦特,就在阿萨德政权垮台约半年后携家人回到叙利亚,并花费约6000美元在叙利亚北部建造新房。 但对许多武装人员来说,叙利亚原本只是返回新疆前的临时落脚点。如今,他们已经与当地建立了长期联系,是否留下成为难以回避的问题。文章指出,大多数叙利亚维吾尔人实际上处于无国籍状态:一些人离开中国时没有携带有效证件,另一些人的中国护照已经过期。尽管部分人拥有叙利亚长期居留文件,能够工作、学习和购置房产,但这并未完全解决他们的法律身份问题。 下一代正在形成不同的故乡观 不少维吾尔武装人员在叙利亚成家,许多孩子出生于当地,从未去过新疆。18岁的卡梅尔丹7岁时随父母来到叙利亚。他仍将新疆视为自己的故乡,希望成为外科医生,但由于阿拉伯语水平不足,他难以满足进入叙利亚医学院的语言要求。 另一些年轻人则逐渐把叙利亚当作真正的家园。奥萨马出生于加拿大,童年时来到叙利亚。阿萨德政权垮台后,他加入叙利亚军队,并进入伊德利卜大学学习机电一体化,希望运用无人机等技术为新的叙利亚贡献力量。他认为,既然自己生活在叙利亚,就同样有责任保卫这个国家。 这种差异让父辈忧虑。一名曾是理发师、后来成为武装人员的比拉勒,曾让女儿在地图上指出自己的家乡。女儿指向伊德利卜,他试图引导她指向新疆喀什,但她再次指回伊德利卜。对父亲而言,新疆承载着流亡、监禁和失去亲人的记忆;对女儿而言,叙利亚才是熟悉的生活空间。 从武装斗争转向社群建设 维吾尔武装人员内部正在重新思考实现政治目标的方式。一些高级指挥官认为,近期直接对中国采取军事行动既不现实,也可能损害社群的长期生存。他们希望通过教育、经济实力、媒体传播和政治游说增强自身能力。 一名名叫埃布·穆罕默特的武装人员坦言,仅靠武器无法解决所有问题。他希望社群培养更多科学、技术、外交和政治人才,并为年轻一代提供医生、教授等职业选择,而不仅仅是军事训练。 不过,返乡理想并未消失。部分领导人仍期待未来中国出现重大政治变化,为他们创造返回新疆的机会。与此同时,随着孩子成长、语言环境变化以及家庭逐渐扎根叙利亚,这一目标能否实现,变得越来越不确定。 冯哲芸的报道最终呈现出一个充满矛盾的现实:叙利亚为这批流亡者提供了安全空间、社会组织和新的政治机会,却也可能成为他们长期无法离开的地方。 战场上的胜利改变了他们在叙利亚的地位,却没有解决他们对故土的渴望。对这一群体而言,真正艰难的考验或许才刚刚开始——如何在不放弃过去的同时,为下一代创造一个不必永远生活在战争与流亡阴影中的未来。 * 本文系编译 * 请在这里阅读原文完整内容:chinabooksreview.com/2026/10…
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
Ok the tent is getting way too damn big
Early voting has begun in Ohio. VOTE AMY ACTON FOR GOVERNOR.
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
For years, Hill reporters assumed he was a former House parliamentarian or staffer. He was a 19-year-old college student in England. Meet @ringwiss.
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So Alito is saying he leaked it
Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito said the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization case, which overturned Roe v. Wade, required “courage” from all of the justices in the majority. "We didn't know it when we produced the draft that was leaked, but it required courage to go ahead with that because of the implications," he said. He told CBS News' @JanCBS that he lost friends over the Dobbs decision. And he called physical threats and harassment "quite disturbing" and "a danger for the courts."
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
us if we were cats in china
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🤘Choose your fiiiiiiiighter🤘 成化后弘治中兴 嘉靖后隆庆新政 万历后天启阉乱
Replying to @ChinaMacroFacts
最大的感触有几点: 1. 科技以外行业的悲观程度应该达到了几十年之最,疫情期间很惨,至少还有熬过疫情的期待,没有未来才是真正的绝望; 2. 我和不少经济学家包括官员交流,到底什么时候才是头?过去大家都各自有判断框架,比如失业、社会治安、舆情、经济环比动能,但这一次大家真的都不知道;
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
Bessent checking bond yields every single day since declaring himself the house
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
My first piece for @NewYorker is out today! As Xi Jinping lands in DC to start his state visit, you'll hear a lot about the US-China AI race. I'd like to tell a complementary AI story. This past May, a few days after Trump visited Beijing, I went to the town people call China's vibe-coding capital, Liangzhu. There, you learn that China's AI scene is not monolithic. It's also full of contrarians, cool vibe coders, spiritual seekers, and people who love AI but refuse to join the 996 grind. Liangzhu is on the edge of Hangzhou. I hung out with a group of anti-mainstream builders who use AI to make whimsical apps for fortune-telling, mental well-being, and creativity. Some of them run their lives entirely by bazi astrology (their founder almost became a Taoist monk). They meet on "Crazy Thursday" to vibe-code together. Rent is cheap, so they can get a bigger place with a living room to have friends over (unthinkable in Beijing or Shenzhen). In Liangzhu, they want to use AI to forge their own future. It’s a ground-level story—less about model capabilities, hyperscalers, or AI policy, and more about how people in China are using AI, and the human stories behind it.
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
Just before the Liberal leadership contest, I randomly met a veteran central banker at a party and asked him about Carney and he said he was one of the smartest people in the world but he'd never make it in electoral politics. Maybe we other countries should try smart pols?
Mark Carney’s approval hit 70%, the highest level, surpassing Chrétien’s 66%. So freaking awesome.
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
Pretty much what happened here
Evolution of the letter A
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
MBS is learning why mercantile states often lose wars. Carthage and Venice learned this the hard way.
ANALYSIS: The past 24 hours has seen truly extraordinary events take place in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Ansarallah (Houthis). Riyadh, Jeddah, Abha, Al-Ula, Jazan, Yanbu, Khamis Mushait, Taif, and the Farasan Islands… all SMASHED by Ansarallah. What’s that? The capital city of Riyadh? Yup. Blasted. The second largest city in Jeddah? Boom. The critical port of Yanbu? Bang. What we’re seeing right now is a Saudi Arabia COMPLETELY defenseless against Ansarallah strikes. And while this is astonishing given Saudi’s military budget and equipment, it’s also remarkably DANGEROUS. Right now, Mohammed bin Salman, MBS, is facing a REAL threat to his control over Saudi Arabia now. Particularly in the past week, the world has watched as Ansarallah took total control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint to the Red Sea. Then, we watched as Iraqi militias (reportedly) hit the Saudi East-West Pipeline that allowed KSA to move oil from the East side of the country to the West, avoiding the Strait of Hormuz threatened by Iran. Now, we’re seeing Ansarallah strike EVERYTHING in Saudi Arabia at will… and MBS looks like a fool. An embarrassment. A LOSER. All the money in the world can’t fix that now. Sure, he could potentially throw money at Ansarallah, lift the blockade of Yemen, and stop meddling, manipulating, and torturing the sovereign country of Yemen, but that won’t fix the ENORMOUS blow to his reputation that the last week has imposed. No. In all likelihood, we are on the verge of a MAJOR Saudi escalation in Yemen. But if recent weeks are any indication, it will only lead to greater devastation to Saudi Arabia and the global energy markets already on the precipice.
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
choose wisely Your Quant Ayatollah’s Quant
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
The European Union is a successor for the Ottoman Empire. Everyone wants a permanent government job where you barely work and can't be fired. Most people spend their days reading magazines at a café. There are regular rebellions because the emperor tried to cut pensions by 2%.
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