Polymarket pricing is becoming more efficient, which also means it is getting harder to make money on Polymarket. There seem to be fewer gamblers and degens who are insensitive to price, especially this year. Below is a set of data from Dune. You can see that trading volume is gradually shifting away from extremely low probability outcomes and becoming more concentrated in the middle of the probability range. To some extent, I think this is simply because there have been fewer tradable events in entertainment and politics. Volume and liquidity still improve from time to time when major news breaks, so I am not particularly pessimistic about this. As for memes, many people moved into prediction markets because they found they could not make money trading memes or simply got tired of them. Some of those users may leave, while others may come back one day.