Bizarre 🏝️

$HIMS just posted their Q1 2025 earnings. Let’s break it down. Some serious wins, a couple things to watch — but the long-term setup? Still undeniable. Let’s start off with the incredible fundamentals this quarter: -Revenue: $586M (+111% YoY) — an absolute monster -Net Income: $49.5M (vs $11.1M last year) -Adjusted EBITDA: $91.1M, up +182% YoY -Subscribers: 2.4M (+38% YoY) -Monthly Revenue per Subscriber: $84 (up from $55) -Free Cash Flow: $50M (vs $11.9M last year) -Gross Margin: 73% -Cash & ST investments: ~$323M -Still no debt The market expected a beat — but not this big: -Street expected: $538.9M -HIMS delivered: $586M ➡️ That’s a $47M beat, and 17 points ahead of expected YoY growth (111% vs ~94%) They’re still guiding to $2.3B–$2.4B for FY25 (same as before), which implies some conservatism. But… They raised EBITDA guidance and dropped a 2030 Estimate: -FY25 EBITDA guidance raised to $295M–$335M (from $245M–$285M) 🟢 -Targeting $6.5B rev and $1.3B EBITDA by 2030 ➡️That’s a 22%+ CAGR, with 20% EBITDA margin🟡 What’s working best? GLP-1 + Personalization 🟢 CEO @AndrewDudum confirmed that: -1.4M of the 2.4M subs are using personalized solutions 🟢 -GLP-1 weight loss program is scaling faster than expected -Average revenue per subscriber is up 53% YoY — this is massive They’re upselling more effectively, and GLP-1 tailwinds haven’t even fully hit yet. The Not-So-Good (but not dealbreakers): Gross margins fell from 82% → 73% YoY 🟡 ➤ Why? GLP-1s are higher cost to deliver (branded meds, more touch points) ➤ Still strong, and management reaffirmed mid-70s GM target by 2030 Q2 guidance implies flat QoQ revenue 🟡 ➤ Q2 revenue guide = $530M–$550M Neither issue changes the trajectory — but worth watching. Now pause and think about this: $HIMS is trading at ~3.9x forward sales. They just grew revenue 111% YoY, beat top-line expectations by $47M, and raised EBITDA guidance by $50M. And that 2025 guidance? Still only includes a partial impact of branded GLP-1s (Novo deal just kicked in). If weight loss ends up doing $700M+ this year — the current guidance is already obsolete. Overall, this was a great—but not perfect—quarter. $HIMS absolutely crushed revenue and earnings expectations, continued to scale profitably, and raised EBITDA guidance with confidence. The GLP-1 program is clearly gaining traction, and subscriber monetization is improving fast. That said, gross margin compression and relatively conservative Q2 guidance remind us this is still an execution game quarter-by-quarter. But big picture? The long-term setup is stronger than ever. This is a company growing >100% at scale, with cash flow, margin expansion, and a massive TAM. If they keep stacking quarters like this, the market won't sleep on them much longer. Anything I missed?