Husband & Father | Truth Seeker | 20+ year technology | Trading & Investing since 2008 | Pilot | Not Financial Advice🏄🌊

Texas, USA
Joined December 2020
The world’s most consequential region of the next 20 years.
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Capital of energy, semiconductors, intelligence factories, education, robotics, and brisket.
The world’s most consequential region of the next 20 years.
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Most recently the EIA & API reports of ~10M barrels of decline in US commercial inventories last week showing signs of reacceleration of inventory draws. More broadly EIA data shows that US onshore inventories are down ~500 million barrels YTD & independent satellite observation of onshore inventories globally elsewhere indicate another 1B barrels of inventory draws globally elsewhere for a total of at least 1.5 billion barrels.
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Real life, baby
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Turns out the future does have flying cars
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NEW: Data from Kpler published today shows an ENORMOUS drop off in the amount of oil transiting Hormuz per day, with the last three days only moving 10M barrels of oil COMBINED. While these numbers will likely be revised upwards over the coming days… There’s certainly been a sharp decline in volume as a result of Iran’s strikes on TWENTY SEVEN vessels in the months of October alone. This includes the container vessel struck earlier today.
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Why isn't oil at $200? Because "someone" keeps dumping oil futures all night long, and the CFTC refuses to look into it. Heck, even when it's clear-cut insider trading, the CFTC has been told to "back off," and they did. bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Replying to @chrismartenson
If you could, is there a good tl;dr version of why the hell oil isn´t at $200 already? Not keeping up with the day to day any longer, but given the number of moving parts currently obfuscating the view, a better vantage point would be much appreciated. 🫣
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Big news, Texas! We're opening Constellation Park, a new 1.3-million-square-foot manufacturing complex and bringing 2,000 jobs to Hutto, TX, to support TeraWave and Quartz. The campus will house manufacturing for key Blue Origin subsystems, including solar arrays, avionics, telecommunications, and other satellite hardware. Read more: bit.ly/3VqvxAL
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don’t shoot the messenger
This will sound super crazy, but I see a path to SpaceX being worth orders of magnitude more than the current Earth economy
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This newest Bitcoin FUD is actually well reasoned and not without basis but it’s a whole lot of what ifs still that haven’t been proven. Despite the hype there has been no real advancement in Quantum for 10+ years. & when you look at what AI is doing with mathematics it’s really just computers being computers. String together gigawatts worth of the fastest GPUs available these new AI data centers make yesterdays supercomputer look like a calculator. So yeah they are going to be able to crunch a bunch of numbers and find faster ways to solve mathematic problems… Turns out computers are good at math! Shocker I know. But if they are good at breaking things today they’ll be just as good at helping validate new encryption methods that won’t be breakable for another 20 years.
Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash. Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase). Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets. IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster). Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot. Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time? Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.) Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once. Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case. I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026). Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS. Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security. The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.
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It’s not the “protect current benefits” that has people outraged. It’s the “89% support higher taxes on young workers”. That’s pretty egregious for even a minority to support further burdening the next generation but 89%! 😬
89% of American seniors support higher taxes on younger workers to protect current Social Security benefits, per YouGov poll.
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Deutsche Bank: We see an addressable opportunity of $2.5-$5.5 trillion for Agentic AI by 2030. $NVDA $META $GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN
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Bitcoin price is running hot (above 1 StdDev) against the average of prior Bitcoin cycles. I use this chart to gauge cycle timing and risk. Remember, price can and usually does the unexpected (including going outside green StdDev markings). NFA & DYOR
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I just realized that if you take all of Elon's companies combined ... they lose money. TSLA has a current P/E of 411 and produced 3.79B of net profit. SpaceX lost 4.27B last year and has a P/E of NEGATIVE 165. I think they are cool companies but a combined value of nearly 4B...
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10Y yield since the war with Iran started. 👀
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I agree in part when it comes to stopping these escorted shuttle ships operated by the gulf countries using wartime shipping rules. But Iran can easily destroy Fujira and the Saudi East-West pipeline so it has more to do with Iran showing restraint, perhaps timing escalation.
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