Register update: $IDYA

$GUTS REMAIN-1, from the company’s own deck: sham patients restarted weight-loss drugs 3x as often (21% vs 6%), and those weights were dropped from the analysis. The result counting everyone was not shown. No positions held. Not paid. Not investment advice.

$MRNA $MRK : No difference between arms in the first 6 months (HR 0.99). The 0.42 after month 6 comes from a sensitivity analysis, not the primary result. Overall survival not mature. No positions held. Not paid. Not investment advice.

$BNTX’s personalised melanoma vaccine missed. $MRNA’s met its endpoints. Same idea, different patients: $MRNA treated after the tumour was removed, $BNTX with tumour still present. Full $MRNA data at ESMO on 24 Oct. No positions held. Not paid. Not investment advice.

$GILD emvistegrast is next, at UEG Week. No positions held. Not paid. Not investment advice.

$MRNA options price about a ±20% move on the INTerpath-001 data at ESMO (24 Oct). The 30 Oct expiry carries 139% implied vol, 21 points above its neighbours. Most open interest sits in November and December, not the event week. No positions held. Not paid. Not investment advice.

$GILD emvistegrast: X% vs Y% remission at week 12, about 57 patients per arm. Same chart: the other oral α4β7 (MORF-057, $LLY) beat placebo by 7.6 points, error bar crossing zero. No positions held. Not paid. Not investment advice.

$GUTS met its primary endpoint and fell 60%. The randomised result: 5.1% vs 8.2% weight regain after stopping tirzepatide, a 3-point gap. The “53%” headline comes from 47 patients picked after the trial. No positions held. Not paid. Not investment advice.

In ulcerative colitis, 50.8% vs 42.6% looks like a win. The error bars overlap, and the placebo arms run from 10% to 25%. No positions held. Not paid. Not investment advice.

$VKTX had positive obesity data this year, yet it is down 22% since late April. Market, biotech sector and obesity peers pointed to +13%. The gap built up quietly, day by day, with no SEC filing behind it. No positions held. Not paid. Not investment advice.

Everyone’s talking about $VSTM’s “50% response” in pancreatic cancer. That’s 4 patients out of 8, and the true rate could be anywhere from 16% to 84%. Read the n before the %. The sturdier signal is the dose: 41% (9/22) at 900 mg vs 15% (4/27) at 600 mg.

$KOD call: 80% that KSI-101 beats sham in PEAK, topline in December. An approved steroid injection gained 31 points over sham in a similar trial, and PEAK has about 100 patients per arm, enough to detect even half that.

$ZURA call: 60% that TibuSHIELD beats placebo in Q4. The IL-17A half is proven in HS (Cosentyx, Bimzelx). The open questions are an undisclosed dose and a trial of 82 patients per arm. Scored on the primary endpoint at either dose. Void if no topline by year-end.

$INO The question isn’t whether INO-3107 works. It’s whether the FDA accepts the shortcut pathway

$INO vs the already-approved $PGEN PAPZIMEOS, same endpoint (no surgery for 12 months): 28% vs 51% in year 1, 44% vs 43% in year 2. Accelerated approval needs an advantage over what’s already available. These numbers don’t show one.

$MRNA options positioning

Obesity drugs, same week, same scale.

October has been $XBI’s weakest month for 19 years, 3.3% behind the S&P 50