“Opposed to wars against people and states—military, legal, economic, or otherwise—and to all actions that undermine international stability.”

New York
Joined December 2023
Beyond Wars retweeted
TRUMP'S 3-DAY AIRPLANE: PAPE REVEALS THE 72-HOUR DECAPITATION PLAN University of Chicago professor Robert Pape just laid out the actual military plan now pressing on the White House. It is a specific, time-bound air campaign whose window is already closing. Every day the tankers stay in range, the pressure to use them grows. THE 3-DAY AIR CAMPAIGN ➡️ There is an enormous incentive for Trump to execute his three-day airplane because it is use it or lose it. ➡️ Axios leaks describe something that looks exactly like Instant Thunder from 1991, the three-day campaign designed to decapitate Saddam’s regime and paralyze it. ➡️ The target is the mosaic command-and-control structure of the IRGC. Eight months of signals intelligence have already identified many nodes. ➡️ It is not one more strike on the Supreme Leader. It is a comprehensive leadership attack across dozens of bunkers, paired with hits on electric power and refineries to create paralysis. THE TANKER DEPENDENCY ➡️ That three-day airplane turns on aerial refueling tankers the same way the Schlieffen plan turned on the railroads. ➡️ Without those tankers the coordinated campaign that could paralyze the IRGC in a truly significant way simply cannot be executed. ➡️ Iran is almost certainly tracking every one of them. Knocking the tankers out would be the modern equivalent of Austria-Hungary’s mobilization. THE INTERLOCKING TIMETABLE ➡️ Trump now sits in a pure use-it-or-lose-it position. He either runs the plan or accepts further embarrassment around the midterms. ➡️ Once the air campaign starts, Houthis can exploit the distraction to hit additional Saudi facilities. ➡️ The sequences unfold over 72 hours, not four weeks. ➡️ Military timetables interacting with poisonous politics is exactly what turned the July 1914 crisis into World War I. Pape hopes we are not studying the same pattern ten or twenty years from now. THE BOTTOM LINE The plan on the table is a short, high-intensity air campaign whose entire feasibility rests on a handful of vulnerable tankers. Once those tankers are gone or the political window closes, the option disappears and the embarrassment remains. The clock is already running. #IranWar #InstantThunder #TrumpPlan #UseItOrLoseIt #Pape #MilitaryTimetable #Midterms HT: YouTube Mario Nafwal
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Syria could be pulled into Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen just as U.S. tensions with Iran escalate. Reports say up to 20,000 Syrian troops are being considered, though Damascus denies Saudi requested a deployment. Another regional war risks becoming a wider one.
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Trump’s giving Putin a gift before the midterms. So much for America first.
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🚨 NEW EPISODE OF GOING UNDERGROUND ⚡️ Joe Kent: How Netanyahu & The Israel Lobby TRAPPED Trump in the War on Iran Quagmire Why did Donald Trump not listen to his own intelligence community's warnings that the war on Iran would result in disaster? How did the Israel lobby and neocons create an echo chamber around Trump to push him into the war on Iran? What should Trump do now to escape the quagmire? All this and more on this episode of Going Underground with @joekent16jan19, former Director of the US National Counterterrorism Center.
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Beyond Wars retweeted
While Israel continues its genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, ethnic cleansing in the West Bank and persists with imposing its unlawful occupation and system of apartheid against Palestinians, PM Benjamin Netanyahu, wanted by the ICC for war crimes and crimes against humanity, is set to address the UN General Assembly in New York instead of standing trial at The Hague. It is doubly shameful that the US government continues to ignore the arrest warrant against Netanyahu - while denying Palestinian representatives visas to attend the UNGA. Nearly two years since the ICC issued arrest warrants against Netanyahu, impunity continues to reign - and Palestinians are paying the price. Continuing to undermine the ICC sends a cruel message to all victims of international crimes that prospects for justice remain elusive while the USA and other powerful states deliberately erode the universal value of international law. All states, including the USA, should enforce the Court’s arrest warrants and hand over Netanyahu to the ICC. International law must be upheld and international justice mechanisms supported to end impunity for international crimes and ensure respect for human rights for all.
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Chinese FM Wang Yi held talks with Iranian FM Seyed Abbas Araghchi in Beijing. Wang said that the continued prolongation of the US-Iran conflict is not in the common interest of the parties concerned and the international community. #China encourages #Iran and the #US to stay rational and exercise restraint, return to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) at an early date, rebuild the negotiation mechanism on the basis of the consensus reached so far, and conduct substantive consultations on issues of their respective concern. China urges all parties to take effective measures to reopen the Strait of #Hormuz at an early date, keep international waterways open and secure, and safeguard the stability of international energy transportation as well as production and supply chains. China does not wish to see regional tensions further spill over into Yemen and the Red Sea. We call on all parties to refrain from actions that further complicate the situation and resolve issues through dialogue and negotiation. 🔗mfa.gov.cn/wjbzhd/202609/t20…
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11 years ago, Professor Mearsheimer warned NATO against leading Ukraine down the primrose path. The world would likely have been a very different place today if we still had open debates and did not criminalise common sense.
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In September '23, UAE President bin Zayed called Netanyahu to deliver a harsh warning. Netanyahu did nothing. An extensive investigation, conducted for a new book, reveals the PM's failures surrounding Oct. 7. Netanyahu: 'This is an absolute lie'
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Replying to @CNN
Trump’s approach raises concerns that he’s willing to pressure Ukraine into giving up territory to Russia in exchange for a peace deal—effectively rewarding Russia’s invasion rather than forcing it to withdraw.
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Replying to @Acyn
The idea that China will stop buying Iranian oil because 30M barrels of floating storage get processed completely misses how energy markets work. Iran keeps producing. China keeps buying. Shadow fleets, ship-to-ship transfers and non-dollar trade don’t disappear overnight.
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Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir says he plans to “encourage” Palestinians to leave Gaza first, and then the West Bank as well.
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Israeli media is openly debating how to pull the U.S. into a land war with #Iran—potentially requiring 1.5 million troops. One proposal? Wipe out young Americans’ student loans and credit-card debt to recruit them. And American taxpayers would foot the bill.
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If the U.S. truly dares to launch a military strike against China's data centers, I believe China's retaliation would not be limited to U.S. targets in the Asia-Pacific region; instead, it would directly target the U.S. mainland with missile strikes. scmp.com/news/us/article/336…
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Beyond Wars retweeted
George Kennan on NATO expansion (May 2, 1998): ''I think it is the beginning of a new Cold War... I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else. This expansion would make the Founding Fathers of this country turn over in their graves... Of course there is going to be a bad reaction from Russia, and then [the NATO expanders] will say that we always told you that is how the Russians are -- but this is just wrong.''
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Beyond Wars retweeted
The ordinary people of Iran are bearing the brunt of Trump's pointless war of choice, victims of both Trump's now desperate efforts to save face and their own leaders' callous indifference to the Iranian people. trib.al/7Fdqp3L
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