My interview @cnni with @BenInLDN A. Netanyahu’s speech — the bigger problem happened before he spoke The most important moment surrounding Netanyahu’s speech actually happened before he began speaking: a significant number of delegations walked out. That illustrates a broader strategic problem for Israel. Iran is an immediate security challenge, but Israel is also facing a serious erosion of its international standing. Whatever government comes next will have to invest significant political capital in rebuilding Israel’s relationships with the international community. B. Israel’s wars with Iran have not achieved their broader strategic objectives If we measure these conflicts against the objectives Israel itself sought to achieve, the record is deeply problematic. Israel has not brought down the Iranian regime. It has not permanently eliminated Iran’s nuclear capabilities. It has not eliminated Iran’s conventional military capabilities, nor has it ended Tehran’s support for its partners and proxies across the Middle East. What we are seeing today with the Houthis in Yemen is one reminder that Iran’s regional network remains a significant challenge. Tactical and operational achievements should not be confused with achieving the broader strategic objectives of the war. C. The nuclear problem has changed — it has not disappeared There is an important achievement here: Iran is not currently enriching uranium. But the nuclear challenge has not disappeared. The more difficult long-term question is Iran’s motivation. If the confrontation has increased Tehran’s determination to eventually acquire a nuclear weapon, then Israel and the United States may have delayed one dimension of the problem while making another dimension more difficult. Capabilities can be destroyed and rebuilt. Motivation is much harder to eliminate. D. Israel and the Gulf states do not necessarily want the same thing from negotiations Israel is fundamentally skeptical of any agreement that strengthens and stabilizes the same Iranian regime that it would ultimately like to see weakened or replaced. The Strait of Hormuz obviously matters less to Israel, but it matters more to the Gulf states. Their priority is regional stability and avoiding another major confrontation. Reopening and stabilizing Hormuz could also serve the Trump administration if its objective is to reduce pressure on global oil prices. So there is a potential divergence of interests: Washington and the Gulf states may see value in an agreement that produces economic and regional stability, while Israel may worry that the same agreement gives the Iranian regime economic breathing room and ultimately strengthens it. E. Iran’s new proposal does not represent a fundamental change in Tehran’s position The latest Iranian proposal should not be interpreted as Tehran abandoning its core red lines. Iran appears to recognize that President Trump is under increasing political pressure as the midterm elections approach, particularly when it comes to energy prices. Tehran is therefore offering Trump something he has a political incentive to want. But substantively, Iran is still trying to return to a framework resembling the previous memorandum of understanding, an arrangement Tehran believes serves its interests. F. No agreement does not mean continuation of the status quo This may be the most important point for Washington. The current situation is inherently unstable. The United States is applying enormous economic pressure, but Iran has not capitulated. If negotiations fail, we should not automatically assume that the existing situation simply continues. The opposite may be true: the probability of another escalation could increase. That means Washington needs to answer two questions simultaneously: What are the costs of accepting an agreement with Iran and what is the strategy if it rejects one? Because if Tehran concludes that economic pressure will continue indefinitely and diplomacy offers no viable exit, the next Iranian move may not be another negotiating proposal. It may be an attempt to change the equation through escalation. #IranWar‌ #iran