Why Iran Will Not Lose This War: A Strategic Breakdown by Pravin Sawhney ​Highly respected defense analyst Pravin Sawhney provides a compelling, objective look at why Iran is positioned to withstand the current conflict. Moving beyond the headlines, he highlights how 21st-century warfare has shifted the balance of power. ​Key Strategic Insights: ​🔹 A War of Survival: For Iran, the baseline for victory is simply maintaining sovereignty. Their decentralized command ensures that even if top leadership is lost, the "unity of effort" remains unbroken. ​🔹 The Technological Edge: Iran has replaced American GPS with China’s Beidou (BDS-3) satellite system. This provides: ​Millimeter-level accuracy for missile targeting. ​The ability to mimic signals to confuse enemy air defenses. ​🔹 Global Chokepoints: Iran effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. By turning the Western Indian Ocean into a "kill zone", they hold a massive lever over the global oil market. ​🔹 The Attrition Reality: While U.S. interceptor stocks are stretched thin by multiple global fronts, Iran maintains a domestic production line of drones and hypersonic missiles capable of sustaining a high-intensity war for months. ​🔹 Superpower Backing: With explicit security guarantees from China and ballistic missile support from North Korea, Iran is no longer fighting in isolation. ​The Bottom Line: Sawhney argues that the U.S. is prepared for 20th-century battles, while Iran—backed by Chinese tech—is fighting a 21st-century war of electronic and space dominance. ​ Watch the full analysis: Iran Will Not Lose The War youtu.be/XrRqJk-7Gy8?si=7GWj…

One Blockade. Two Pressures. Oil routes through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted. Oil prices are close to $90. At the same time, tensions on the Afghan border are rising. For Pakistan, this means pressure from two sides. If this situation continues: • Petrol and diesel prices could go up • Electricity bills may increase • The rupee could weaken • Food and transport costs may rise • Trade may slow down The Real Risk: Time The key question is not just oil prices. It’s how long this lasts. • A few days → markets calm down. • A few weeks → higher fuel, food, and transport costs. • A month or more → serious strain on our fuel stocks and foreign exchange reserves. Pakistan has roughly four weeks of fuel cover. Beyond that, pressure builds quickly. What Must Be Done • Reduce wasteful energy use immediately • Manage fuel stocks carefully and transparently • Control government spending • Push strongly for diplomatic de-escalation For an energy-importing country like Pakistan, time is the real enemy.

PSX Bloodbath The market plunged nearly 10% in one session as regional war fears escalated. This isn’t just panic. It exposes how fragile our economy still is. Oil rises → markets fall. Geopolitics shakes → confidence collapses. That’s not normal volatility. That’s lack of resilience. When will we build buffers strong enough to withstand external shocks? Bloodbath at PSX as region reels from fallout of war - Business - DAWN.COM share.google/Wy5DBCwkKMAvvpG…

A Martyrdom That May Reshape the Region The martyrdom of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is not just a national tragedy for Iran — it is a geopolitical turning point for the entire region. For the first time since the 1979 revolution, the ideological anchor of the Iranian state has been removed through direct conflict, opening a period of uncertainty, retaliation, and strategic recalibration across the Middle East. A major question remains: will the "operation regime change" succeed? What happens next will matter far beyond Iran: - Iran now enters a sensitive leadership transition where security institutions are likely to gain greater influence. - The region risks prolonged instability marked by retaliation cycles and rising geopolitical polarization. - Energy markets and global shipping routes face renewed uncertainty — with immediate economic consequences. For Pakistan, the impact is neither distant nor symbolic: • Rising oil prices may reignite inflation and external account pressures • Regional tensions complicate Pakistan’s delicate diplomatic balancing • Border and internal security sensitivities could increase • Economic stabilization efforts face new external headwinds This moment marks the emergence of a new Middle East order. The real question is not whether the region will change — but whether countries like Pakistan are prepared for the economic and strategic shocks that follow.

Pakistan’s Political Economy Vicious Circle: Relief Today, Crisis Tomorrow. Every IMF program or debt rescheduling brings temporary relief. Almost every time, that relief is treated as permanent fiscal space. Spending expands. Structural reform slows. The cycle resets. This is Pakistan’s political economy equilibrium — a flawed incentive structure at work. When short-term political gains outweigh long-term economic costs, external financing becomes a bridge — not to reform — but to postpone hard choices. That’s why this is not merely a fiscal issue. It is an entrenched equilibrium that has reproduced itself for nearly 80 years. The real question is not why we return to the IMF. It is this: within this equilibrium, who truly has the incentive to disrupt it — and who is willing to bear the cost of change?

In continuation of my series on: Why an Effective ICAP Is a National Economic Imperative When oversight becomes ceremonial, institutions begin to decay. Institutions don’t collapse in a day. They erode quietly — when governance stops working. The Institute of Chartered Accountants of Pakistan (ICAP) regulates the very professionals who prepare and audit financial statements that underpin trust in markets. That makes its governance a matter of national economic consequence — not just internal administration. The uncomfortable truth The law provides for government nominees on ICAP’s Council to safeguard public interest. In principle, this is good governance. In practice, high-profile government nominees recorded zero participation in Council meetings. Oversight existed on paper — but not in action. And what was meant to be a public-interest safeguard became a symbolic seat at the table. More concerning is this: Such a visible governance failure has largely been tolerated — by the profession, the markets, and society. But symbolic oversight protects no one. Why Reform Cannot Wait If ICAP is to remain credible, its governance must ensure: ✔ Active participation ✔ Balanced representation ✔ Independent oversight ✔ Professional ownership A practical solution is to reconstitute the Council (through amendment of the ICAP Ordinance, 1961): A Leaner, More Effective Council — 17 Members 10 Elected Members Nationally elected — ensuring competence and continuity. 7 Nominated Members • 3 Government nominees — relevant, accountable, and available • 4 Independent members — selected transparently through a nominating process from outside the profession, with strong expertise in financial markets, governance, regulation, or financial reporting This structure would: • Preserve professional leadership • Strengthen oversight credibility • Restore public trust • Align with global governance standards Most importantly, it would make oversight real — not ornamental. Because confidence in financial reporting depends not only on standards — but on the integrity of those who govern the institutions enforcing them. The Bottom Line If ICAP is to strengthen transparency, accountability, and market confidence in Pakistan, it must first demonstrate those principles in its structure. Council composition is not a technical detail. It is a credibility test. Strong institutions are not built on titles. They are built on responsibility, participation, and courage. 💬 Is it time we demand accountability not only from companies — but from the institutions that regulate them?

The biggest obstacle to learning isn’t ignorance. It’s certainty. Ignorance is not cured by information. It’s cured by humility and curiosity. Facts alone rarely change minds. Real insight begins when we recognise gaps in our understanding — and feel compelled to close them. Lifelong learning starts the moment we accept how little we know. In leadership, policy, and institutions, progress belongs to those willing to question what they think they already understand.

Confidence is the real currency of investment. As @MAzfarAhsan highlights, FDI has collapsed to just 0.45% of GDP due to policy inconsistency, weak institutions and no clear strategy — and his call to reform and strengthen the Board of Investment is spot on. But the deeper alarm is that overall investment has also plunged. When domestic investors hesitate, it sends the strongest signal to the world. Before chasing foreign capital, we must first restore confidence at home — because FDI follows local investment, not the other way around.

Hope won’t get us jobs. During his recent visit, World Bank President Ajay Banga said Pakistan must create 30 million jobs in 10 years — yet the World Bank itself has warned our growth model is broken. In my latest column, I explain why a broken model plus policies that shrink competitiveness mean we’re meeting IMF targets but missing the future. That math doesn’t work. Here’s why ↓ thenews.pk/print/1399922-hop…

An economy that uses less power isn’t growing — it’s shrinking in disguise. Pakistan’s recent pattern of modest GDP growth alongside declining electricity consumption should concern anyone tracking real economic momentum. Worldwide, expansion in industry, services, and productivity has always been powered — quite literally — by rising energy use. When power demand falls, it signals deeper structural stress: high tariffs suppressing activity, businesses scaling down, and consumers cutting usage. Solar adoption may cushion households & few businesses, but it cannot substitute for a healthy, affordable grid that fuels large-scale growth. Real reform means making electricity accessible and affordable so demand — and with it investment, jobs, and productivity — can rise again. 👉 Read the full article: Powerless growth - Opinion - Business Recorder share.google/i3HRJlEOvrDSkcz…

THE GREAT DECOUPLING Why Pakistan’s Economic Growth Depends on Affordable Grid Power + Solar Integration The world has entered what the IEA calls the “Age of Electricity.” Across the globe, electricity demand is rising 3–4% annually — almost in lockstep with GDP growth. Economic expansion today is fundamentally powered by electricity: factories, cooling, transport, digital infrastructure, and AI. In India and Bangladesh, rising power demand is fueling prosperity. But Pakistan is moving in the opposite direction. The Decoupling (2021–2024 Average) World • Electricity growth: ~3.3% • GDP growth: ~3.2% ➡ Balanced expansion India • Electricity growth: ~6.6% • GDP growth: ~6.2% ➡ Power surge = economic acceleration Bangladesh • Electricity growth: ~4.7% • GDP growth: ~5.6% ➡ Steady structural progress Pakistan • GDP growth: ~1.8% • Grid electricity demand: ~-0.5% ➡ Economic activity is not translating into grid demand. That is not normal. It signals structural stress. The Structural Impediment: Expensive Grid Power Industrial electricity prices in Pakistan reached 14–17 US cents per kWh in 2024 — among the highest in the region and significantly above India and the US. This is driven by: • Heavy capacity payments • Circular debt accumulation • High fixed cost recovery • Fuel and exchange rate volatility The result: • Industrial slowdown • Reduced operating hours • Migration to captive generation • Accelerated shift to solar • Falling grid volumes When tariffs rise to recover fixed costs, demand shrinks — which pushes tariffs even higher. That is the classic utility “death spiral.” ☀️ The Shock Absorber: Solar Expansion While grid demand stagnated, Pakistan imported over 20 GW of solar panels in 2024 alone — one of the largest annual surges globally. Distributed solar capacity is now estimated at 15–18 GW, much of it behind-the-meter. Solar is not undermining the economy. It is cushioning it. It is: • Keeping export industries viable • Allowing farmers to irrigate • Supporting SMEs facing high tariffs • Reducing fuel import pressures This is not defiance of policy. It is rational economic behaviour in response to price signals. 💡 The Way Forward: Grid + Solar, Not Grid vs Solar Pakistan does not need to penalise solar to save the grid. It needs a structural reset: 1️⃣ Reduce Grid Tariffs • Expand demand to recover a portion of capacity payments • Improve DISCO efficiency • Rebalance fixed vs variable charges Even a meaningful industrial tariff reduction could revive idle capacity and materially lift GDP. 2️⃣ Integrate Distributed Energy • Smart net billing • Time-of-use pricing • Grid modernisation • Flexibility & competitive markets Bottom Line You cannot achieve high growth with high-priced power. The rest of the world is electrifying its economy. Pakistan is fragmenting its energy system. The choice is not ideological. It is economic: Affordable Grid + Integrated Solar = Growth Expensive Grid + Policy Uncertainty = Stagnation The “Great Decoupling” is a warning signal. The response must be structural — not cosmetic.

Great companies — and great economies — aren’t built by chance. They’re built by leadership that changes the trajectory. From Beyond Entrepreneurship 2.0 to Good to Great, decades of research point to one consistent truth: 👉 Leadership is a multiplier — of people, culture, strategy, and results. Here’s how it plays out in the real world: Business • Satya Nadella at Microsoft Before 2014: Profitable, but losing momentum. Innovation slowed. Silos dominated. Market cap around $300 billion. What changed: A cultural reset toward learning, collaboration, cloud, and AI. Today: Market value crossed $3 trillion — nearly 10x growth. Key trait: Humility with a growth mindset. • Eiji Toyoda at Toyota Before: Post-war scarcity and weak industrial credibility. What changed: Leadership built around continuous improvement (Kaizen), quality, and long-term thinking. Result: One of the world’s most reliable and profitable automakers. Key trait: Discipline with long-term vision. Countries • Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore Before: A poor port city with no natural resources. What changed: Meritocracy, clean governance, and relentless investment in human capital. Result: A global economic and financial hub. Key trait: Integrity + meritocracy = institutional excellence. • Park Chung-hee in South Korea Before: War-ravaged and aid-dependent. What changed: Focus on education, exports, infrastructure, and industrial capability. Result: A manufacturing and technology powerhouse. Key trait: Vision — promoting a highly productive small number of large private conglomerates (chaebols) — backed by execution. The pattern is clear: Low-capacity leadership breeds crisis and stagnation. Visionary, capable leadership drives growth — even in tough times. Whether in boardrooms or in public policy, leadership doesn’t just influence outcomes. It multiplies them. If we truly want transformation — in companies or in countries — the real starting point isn’t another plan or policy. It’s better leaders, stronger institutions, and a culture of accountability. Because leadership isn’t a soft issue. 👉 It’s the ultimate economic multiplier. #LeadershipMatters #Governance #PublicPolicy #GreatCompanies #Transformation #HumanCapital #EconomicGrowth

ICAP is not a private club of CAs. It shapes Pakistan's economy. In continuation of my series on: Why an Effective ICAP Is a National Economic Imperative We often think of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Pakistan (ICAP) as merely a body that awards the CA qualification. In reality, ICAP is the architect of Pakistan’s financial DNA. Its members don’t just work in finance roles — they run & safeguard the financial system. From ICAP’s ranks come: • CFOs — and in many cases CEOs • Board members & Chairs of Audit Committees (and even Boards) • Heads of internal audit • Tax experts • Professionals shaping public finance & accountability Most importantly, all listed companies, banks, financial institutions, SOEs, regulators, and other public interest entities — which together form the backbone of Pakistan’s formal economy — ICAP members/CA firms serve as external auditors, audit their financial statements. ICAP members directly influence: - Transparency, Accountability, Risk management and Governance. When ICAP functions effectively: 👉 Financial reporting improves 👉 Decisions are better informed 👉 Accountability strengthens 👉 Trust in institutions grows When trust grows, investment follows. When it doesn’t, the economy is built on sand. The Oversight Paradox ICAP was created by the legislature as a statutory body. To protect public interest, its Council includes high-profile govt nominees — meant to be the public’s eyes on the profession. In the early years, even the Federal Finance Secretary served as ICAP’s President. Since the mid-1980s, leadership shifted to elected members, but the Chairman SECP has always remained a govt nominee. Recently, very prominent figures were nominated — including: • The Finance Minister (later Deputy Prime Minister) • Governor State Bank • Chairman FBR • Chairman SECP On paper — impressive. In practice — ineffective. All four nominees recorded zero attendance in Council meetings over the last four years. The result: Prestige nominations but zero participation. A vital governance check rendered meaningless When nominations are symbolic, public interest oversight collapses. The Bottom Line If Pakistan wants better governed companies, stronger institutions, and a credible economy, it must move beyond symbolism. We don’t need “big names”. We need the right people with relevant knowledge, time, commitment and independence of thought. Because institutional strength is not a title but an active responsibility. Ultimately, the quality of our economy depends on the quality of institutions, their governance & who leads them. Do you think it’s time to rethink how leaders are nominated to oversee strategic professional bodies like ICAP? (Next in the series: Why the right Council composition — including pragmatic govt nominees & independent members — is critical for better governance and stronger investor confidence.)

Warren Buffett — one of the most successful investors of all time — says everyone in business should know accounting. Why? Because accounting is the language of business. Trying to run a company without understanding numbers is like being dropped in a foreign country where you can’t read the signs or understand the people around you. As Warren Buffett often reminds us: When you can read financial statements fluently, you don’t just see figures — you see the real story of a business. Its strength. Its risks. Its true potential. Want to lead with confidence instead of guessing? Start by learning the language that builds wealth. Watch and learn: 👇 Warren Buffett on the Importance of Accounting youtube.com/shorts/_c_y_gfwo…

Why an Effective ICAP Is a National Economic Imperative Over the coming days, I plan to share a series of posts on why an effective Institute of Chartered Accountants of Pakistan (ICAP) is absolutely critical for Pakistan’s economy — and not just for the accounting profession, its members, or students. My purpose is to highlight: 👉 Why ICAP’s role goes far beyond that of a professional body 👉 How it directly influences governance, accountability, market confidence, and economic growth 👉 And what needs to be done to enhance its potential contribution — not only for the profession, but for the country as a whole This first post sets the context. ICAP is far more than an institute that awards qualifications. It was created by Pakistan’s legislature as a statutory, public interest body, entrusted with developing and regulating a profession that sits at the very heart of our financial system. At its best, ICAP is — and must be — a cornerstone of Pakistan’s economic architecture, shaping: • Transparency in financial reporting • Accountability in institutions • Trust in markets But what Pakistan needs is not just a strong ICAP in name. We need an effective ICAP in practice. An effective ICAP creates national value by: ✅ Producing high-quality accountants, auditors, tax experts, and 21st-century financial leaders ✅ Ensuring credible audits and reliable financial reporting that promotes investor confidence ✅ Strengthening governance in both corporate and public sectors ✅ Contributing meaningfully to policies on transparency and accountability In every successful economy, strong accounting and audit systems form the invisible infrastructure of growth. Better and reliable numbers create trust. Trust attracts investment. Investment drives economic progress. That is why ICAP’s effectiveness matters far beyond the profession. In my humble view, this is not a professional issue alone. It is a national economic imperative. In the coming posts, I will share thoughts on ICAP’s historic contributions, current challenges, the governance reforms needed, and how it can be built into an institution of excellence capable of playing the transformative role Pakistan so desperately needs. I look forward to a healthy and constructive dialogue and would encourage members and stakeholders to raise questions and share their critical observations in the comments or via DM — so together we can generate more productive insights for building a robust ecosystem of accountability and transparency, the two pillars of good governance.

The Rewiring of Globalisation: From Integration to Geopolitical Realism Davos 2026 marked a turning point — not a celebration of globalisation, but a recognition that economic interdependence is being reshaped by power, risk and strategic hedging. The world isn’t decoupling from the US, but it is recalibrating — redesigning supply chains, diversifying capital flows and prioritising resilience over blind reliance. For Pakistan, this new global order brings both danger and opportunity. Dependence on external lifelines is no longer viable. Competitiveness, institutional reform and credibility are now the real currencies of growth. Adaptation is no longer optional — it is imperative. 📖 Read my full column: The Rewiring of Globalisation thenews.pk/print/1395941-the…

Zero Attendance, Zero Accountability: A Governance Failure at ICAP One of the most serious governance failures at the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Pakistan (@icapofficial) over the last four years has been the complete non-participation of government-nominated Council members. The Deputy Prime Minister, Governor State Bank of Pakistan, Chairman SECP and Chairman FBR — nominated under the ICAP Ordinance to safeguard public interest and strengthen institutional oversight — did not attend a single Council meeting during the entire term. Yet, disappointingly, the Federal Government has once again nominated the same individuals. This practice is fundamentally against the spirit and intent of the ICAP Ordinance. ICAP is meant to function as an independent, professionally governed, public-interest institution — not as a Self-Regulatory Organization (SRO) comprising only elected Council members with ceremonial government representation and no real independent oversight. Government nominees are expected to: • Actively participate in Council deliberations • Provide independent oversight and strategic direction • Fulfil fiduciary responsibilities in the public interest Zero attendance over four years raises serious and unavoidable questions: ➡️ What criteria are being used to select government nominees? ➡️ Is participation and accountability even expected? ➡️ How is public interest safeguarded in their continued absence? By repeating the same non-participating nominees, ICAP’s governance framework is being weakened and its institutional credibility steadily eroded. The new Council and leadership must urgently engage the Federal Government and SECP to reform the nomination process — ensuring committed, competent, and accountable representation in line with the ICAP Ordinance. Strong institutions are built on presence, responsibility, and accountability — not symbolism.

The Paradox of Pakistan’s Energy Governance Pakistan keeps missing simple solutions — and then spends years managing the complications it creates. In 2017, the Ministry of Energy was formed to integrate Power and Petroleum and fix fragmented policymaking on the recommendation of the World Bank and many other analysts. But instead of one unified ministry, we kept separate power and petroleum divisions, each working in silos. To manage these silos, we added the Cabinet Committee on Energy (CCOE) as a coordination body. And now, after inefficiencies and circular debt have worsened, we are rolling out frameworks, committees, and planning mechanisms to “integrate” what should have been integrated from day one. This is classic overcomplication: 👉 A simple solution: one unified Energy Ministry with clear authority 👉 What we chose: divisions, coordination forums, and bureaucratic layers Instead of solving problems, we created more — and now we are busy designing systems to manage the mess. The answer is still simple: ✅ One Energy Ministry ❌ No separate divisions ❌ No CCOE for coordination ❌ No unnecessary frameworks Just clear leadership, unified planning, and accountability. Until we learn to simplify, Pakistan will keep turning reforms into complications — and complications into crises. profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/…

LSM Is Up. Exports Aren’t. Guess What Comes Next. LSM growth looks impressive — until you follow the money. The recovery is consumption-led and import-fuelled, not driven by exports or investment — a cycle Pakistan repeats every 4–5 years. The data is already flashing warnings: • Current account swings to a $1.2bn deficit in 1HFY26 (from a $957mn surplus last year) • Monthly imports cross $7bn — levels last seen in 2022 • Services imports hit $1.3bn in Dec, among the highest ever • Exports are flat to declining, even as industrial output rises This is classic: Pent-up demand + import rebound = short-term growth Without exports, investment, and productivity gains → BOP stress follows LSM growth is real. Calling it transformation is not. Stabilization buys time. Transformation prevents the next crisis.

Creative Destruction: Pakn’s Missing Reform to Exit the IMF Cut taxes — stop punishing the formal, productive economy. Cut interest rates — capital must price growth, not state failure. Cut bureaucracy — regulation should enable markets, not choke them. Cut government — the state must shrink to what it can competently manage. Cut regulations — replace permissions and discretion with clear rules and enforcement. Cut government borrowing — the state must stop crowding out private enterprise. Let markets work. Base the economy on competition, price signals, and productivity. Reward efficiency and innovation. Build a robust startup and SME ecosystem: Enable risk capital (VCs, PE, angel networks) through tax neutrality and legal certainty. Free banks from sovereign addiction — banks don’t “hate” private lending; they’re rationally addicted to risk-free sovereign paper. Drastically reduce government demand for bank credit to unlock lending for productive firms. Shift banks from collateral obsession to cash-flow–based lending for smart private enterprises. Remove regulatory friction so startups can scale, fail, and restart. Allow inefficient firms, outdated business models, and rent-seeking systems to fail. Protect people — not obsolete firms. Sustainable growth doesn’t come from protecting the old. It comes from creative destruction, institutional discipline, economic freedom — and new enterprise formation. Above all, this requires leadership with clarity of purpose, not leadership built on and captive to vested interests. Who leads matters more than how policies are written.