Everybody who bought an Airbnb in 2021 is trying to sell it to me I own 55 rentals so I'm on every cash buyer list in four states. Those calls used to be about dead grandmas' houses. This year it's guys with a cabin, a hot tub and a spreadsheet that stopped working I've bought zero of them. Here's the call I get about twice a week: Cabin outside Blue Ridge, Georgia. Bought in 2022 for $585,000, 20% down, investor loan at 7.25%. The agent's rental projection said $92,000 a year. Last year it did $51,000 His side of it: Mortgage, taxes, insurance: about $3,850 a month Manager takes 20%: $850 Utilities, wifi, hot tub guy, firewood, the stuff guests steal: $600 Out: $5,300 a month In: $4,250 He writes a $1,050 check every month to own a place he's slept in four times. He wants $560,000 and thinks he's being generous I run one number on any house before I look at a photo. What would a normal family pay to rent it for a year, divided by the price. I want 1% a month or better That cabin rents to a local family for maybe $2,300. $2,300 / $560,000 = 0.4% The house I paid $23,000 for in Ohio rents for $925. That's 4% An Airbnb gets priced like a business, and the business is nightly bookings. When the bookings go, what's left is a 3-bedroom 40 minutes from a grocery store, and it's worth what a 3-bedroom 40 minutes from a grocery store is worth. For his cabin that's about $330,000. He owes $450,000 That gap is why they call people like me. A regular buyer can't get it to appraise, and he can't sell it for what it's worth without bringing six figures to closing What happened to the bookings, same story in every market I get calls from: Everybody bought in the same 18 months off the same projections, so one county went from 2,000 listings to 5,000 The same tourists got split between all of them Cities started capping permits, and a house that loses its permit loses a third of its price that week Cleaning fees got so stupid people went back to hotels If you're about to buy one, do it in this order: 1. Long-term rent test first. If a 12-month tenant doesn't cover the payment, you're buying a job that depends on strangers' vacations 2. Get the real booking history out of the seller's Airbnb account. The projection in the listing is a guess from someone who gets paid when you close 3. Call the county about the short-term permit. Does it transfer, is there a cap, is there a vote coming 4. Price it like the permit dies. If that number scares you, that's the real number If you already own one and it's bleeding, put a 12-month tenant in it now. $2,300 against $3,850 hurts a lot less than $0 in February, and "tenant in place" sells to investors. "Vacant cabin with a hot tub" doesn't My most boring house has paid me every single month for three years and nobody has ever left it a review