Thoughts on Lebanon, international affairs,, and global economy
Joined August 2011
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Great knowledge is admirable. No knowledge is forgivable. A little knowledge is dangerous.
The administration initially went to lengths to own the decision to go to war and dismiss suggestions that Israel forced their hand. Now they’re leaking materials to put the blame on their PM.
🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷VP Vance told Netanyahu in a "difficult" call on Monday that several of Netanyahu's predictions about the war had proved far too optimistic, like the prospects of a popular uprising to topple the regime. @MarcACaputo & I write for @axios axios.com/2026/03/27/vance-i…
Rational ME retweeted
There is very little in this piece that demonstrates that Hezbollah has rebuilt significantly since late 2024. Its strategic arsenal was meant to punish and deter and it failed to so then and now. Israel has the military strength and advantage.
Can Hezbollah fighters perform well on the ground against the Israelis? Yes but at high cost and without strategic effect.
Hezbollah failed in every possible way. It misread its enemy, it misunderstood what it was facing, it connected Lebanon to Gaza without going up the escalation ladder, it lost its leadership and much of its security cadre but the Iranians declined to intervene, it lost its strategic depth and supply route (Syria), it went against the Lebanese consensus.
Rational ME retweeted
Lebanon is in a real catch-22.
Hizbollah is too weak to deter Israel, protect its community, force a negotiated settlement, or rethink its own tactics...
Yet strong enough to deter the Lebanese army from taking over, while egging on Israel and inviting ever more escalation.
More evidence this is going to be a long war. You don’t convene the CEOs of every major US defense contractor, announce industrial production ramp-ups, and schedule a follow-up meeting in two months because you’re planning a short operation.
The backing of Kurdish militias is a US attempt to achieve regime change without putting boots on the ground.
This is the Afghanistan model all over again, where US provides air power to support a ground presence of local militants against the regime.
It also suggests that this operation has been in the works for some time, as the speed of which Kurdish forces are being mobilized suggests the flow of weapons had started well in advance.
It didn’t work in Afghanistan, where proxy militias were pushed beyond their capabilities to serve objectives beyond their own. It is unlikely to be sufficient in Iran - the Kurds are only interested in autonomy within their respective borders, while US seeks whole regime change.
At a $47M AAV, Micah’s contract with the Packers would represent 16.8% of the base salary cap - by far the largest cap % for an edge rusher in recent memory, surpassing even the inflated value of Myles Garrett and TJ Watt’s recently signed contracts.
I don’t believe it’s possible to defend Trump’s second term in an intellectually honest way. It’s far beyond the left vs. right, Democrat vs. Republican, or any policy divide. Those who defend Trump simply reveal their own character (or lack thereof).
Rational ME retweeted
What nonsense are you spreading? Iran has occupied four Arab capitals, including Beirut. For forty years, we Lebanese have been the victims of your imperial fantasies—used as cannon fodder to protect Iran’s borders, all under the deceitful banner of “liberating Jerusalem.”
Rational ME retweeted
Our dilemma in the region is real. On one hand, there's an urgent need to deter Netanyahu. On another, our inability and weakness come directly from the very make-up and false promises of the regimes which claimed deterrence or resistance.
I don't know if political Islamism is dead, but the movement that once rose from the failure of pan-Arabism is clearly in retreat. What takes its place - secular nationalism, authoritarianism, or something new - is anybody's guess.
This may truly be the best piece on the Gaza war that I have read.
I know this piece is going to land very differently with different people. But to me the important part is that it is an honest assessment of what has transpired over the last 20 months, and a genuine reflection on where I am. I'd appreciate any shares. readtangle.com/leaving-zioni…
Rational ME retweeted
All my life I have studied democratization and autocratization. My 1st field trip was to newly democratic Argentina. I then added autocracies to my portfolio: Cuba, Ven, etc. I think I can recognize the stages of transition to authoritarianism. Here are the boxes checked off.
I think the scariest thing about the Trump is how blatant the obvious lies are, and yet no one cares.
Hannah Arendt talked about the destruction of objective truth and the construction of an artificial reality that fits the party’s narrative and that all must accept.
And what’s even scarier is seeing people in your social circle just continue to fall for it. It’s not always obvious to me whether they don’t know it’s a lie, or whether they do know and they don’t care