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Indonesia expels tightly held companies from Jakarta index in bid to avoid MSCI downgrade ft.trib.al/RQzexPC
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BofA - The Flow Show: Sell Signal Ends
Key takeaways
· BofA Bull & Bear Indicator drops sharply to 7.4, ending "sell signal" for risk assets triggered May 26th
· Oct Fed hike, potential DEM sweep, market moves in AI spenders & lenders...we stay risk-off until post-midterms
- The Biggest Picture: summer of extreme bull sentiment ends, but asset allocators are not underweight risk
- '26 record year of inflows to global stocks ($1.3tn annualised), US equities ($636bn), IG bonds ($480bn), tech funds ($196bn ), Korea equities ($76bn) vs. record year of outflows from consumer funds ($18bn).
- S&P 500 stocks trading 10% below their 52-week highs = 355, trading 20% below 52-week highs = 188, trading 30% below 52-week highs = 93.
- Tale of the Tape: Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah, Turkish lira at/close to all-time lows, while Japanese yen 3% from 40-year lows; combined population of Japan, Türkiye, Indonesia, India = 2 billion, and extreme currency depreciation (past 5 years...TRY -81%, JPY -28%, INR -21%, IDR -21%) never socially popular.
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BBG: According to Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner, retail traders net bought $9.1 billion of US equities on the firm’s platform last week, largely concentrated in AI-tied stocks and exchange traded funds, with $2.6 billion on net of semiconductors and another $2.4 billion of AI infrastructure stocks, even as overall trading activity remained below average.
It was the largest net buying in 15 weeks, the firm’s head of equity and derivatives strategy wrote in a note, and puts October on track to be the biggest month of net buying for chipmakers on the company’s platform.
The increase in retail buying was generally driven by “stronger directional conviction rather than elevated volumes,” Rubner wrote. Retail investors bought 2.7% more than they sold last week, which is a 90th-percentile reading for weekly directional skew. Gross trading activity remained in the 42nd percentile of the past year.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Blackrock upgrades US Treasuries and downgrades US equities:
The 10-year Treasury yield has risen 110 basis points this year to around 5.25%, driven mainly by higher real interest rates rather than inflation expectations or term premium.... We think that is overdone. With term premium averaging around 75 basis points since September, higher yields offer a more attractive entry point....
We are upgrading shorter-term Treasuries to overweight, where we see scope for excessive Fed tightening expectations to unwind, and long-term Treasuries to neutral as higher yields now provide better compensation for interest-rate risk....
We also fund the Treasury upgrades by closing our long-held U.S. equity overweight to neutral. This is a short-term risk management move, reflecting our belief that investors must be more dynamic in today’s volatile macro and market regime.
Bottom line: We are managing near-term risk, not changing our core convictions. Higher yields offer an opportunity to add Treasuries, funded partly by taking profits on U.S. equities. We remain constructive on AI and stand ready to add risk again as visibility improves and attractive entry points emerge.
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Smart money is now LONG small caps and SHORT Nasdaq 100.
IMO, this rotation makes a lot of sense, and the RUT/NDX ratio recently reached its most oversold level since the pandemic, potentially confirming the setup.
Could be an interesting opportunity for the short to medium term.
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Actually existing libertarianism has been a total disaster in Argentina:
32,300 companies have shut down since Javier Milei came to power.
437,000 formal jobs have been lost.
According to official government data, unemployment is rising in every industry, in almost all regions
La sangría económica de Milei: Argentina pierde 32.300 empresas y 437.000 empleos desde su llegada al poder
eleconomista.es/economia/not…
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Many investors believe interest rates are already too high to rise further...
Yet, real yields are only around 1.6%, well below historical peaks.
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Casi 32.300 empresas cerraron en Argentina en lo que va del Gobierno de Milei.
efe.com/economia/empresas-ce…
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🚨 WALL STREET IS GETTING EXTREMELY BULLISH ON US BONDS.
Call option volume on the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) just hit a record 14.9 million contracts in one month.
That's nearly 3x higher than January.
In simple terms, traders are making huge bets that long-term Treasury bond prices will rise.
And when bond prices rise, their yields fall.
This means traders are positioning for a potentially sharp drop in long-term U.S. Treasury yields.
And historically whenever yields have fallen quickly, stocks have entered a bear market.
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THIS IS ABSOLUTELY MIND-BLOWING:
Call-option volume on the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, $TLT, has exploded to a record 14.9 million contracts over the last month.
This is TRIPLE the levels seen in January.
This signals rapidly growing bullish positioning toward long-term Treasuries, as call options give traders exposure to a potential rise in bond prices if yields fall.
The bet comes after the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields spiked to 5.33% and 5.73%, their highest levels in 24 years.
Meanwhile, $TLT is down -8.5% so far in 2026 and fell -9.0% in Q3 alone.
Options traders are increasingly betting that the historic rise in yields is approaching its limit.
Risky bets on long-term Treasuries are skyrocketing.
