Crude oil rebounded this week on rising geopolitical risk, as Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia intensified. The upward pressure on energy price has started to show through data; September CPI came in hotter than expected, with gasoline (+9.1% MoM) accounting for more than half of the monthly increase in headline inflation, while core also surprised to the upside. This naturally revived inflation worries, doubling the probability of a cumulative 50bp of hikes by year-end from roughly 14% to 28% over the past week (per FedWatch). The resulting rise in nominal yields and a stronger dollar weighed on silver, which has continued to trade like leveraged gold. Korean equities faced an additional headwind. KOSPI, known to be weighted toward semiconductors through Samsung and SK Hynix, sold off sharply after Chinese memory maker CXMT unveiled plans for next-generation DRAM, raising questions over the two incumbents’ future market share and profitability.

Last week we saw weak demand for crypto ETFs, with $1.29bn in net outflows across the five tracked assets, alongside declines of roughly 4% in $BTC and 8% in ETH. Macro headlines did little to support prices—Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent above $105, and US Treasury yields continued to make new highs. $SOL ETFs also recorded their first weekly outflow in 15 weeks, putting an end to its 14-week inflow streak. $ETH’s weekly net flow relative to assets ranked near the 4th percentile of its historical distribution, highlighting particularly weak demand. This coincided with Bitmine carrying the largest unrealized loss in our weekly DAT snapshot at $4.75bn, versus unrealized gains of $5.89bn for Strategy and $2.47bn for Hyperliquid Strategies.

Nikkei 225's outperformance versus $KOSPI was a notable feature of the past week, and it reflects different parts of the AI supply chain attracting capital. On October 1, strong Micron results and guidance lifted Japanese semiconductor names including Advantest, Tokyo Electron and Kioxia. Advantest gained 9.8%, and the $Nikkei advanced 3.3% against only 0.57% for TOPIX, which suggests much of Japan's outperformance came from concentrated enthusiasm for AI-related companies. The contrast sharpened on October 6, when the Nikkei gained about 1.1% while KOSPI fell 0.9%. Foreign investors sold roughly $1.3 billion of Korean main-board shares that day, with SK Hynix down 3.7% and Samsung Electronics down 1.4%.

This week, $ZEC recorded $93.6m in net outflows, its first outflow week since the 25 Aug listing. This coincided with a ~23% drop in $ZEC from its 27 Sep high after its recent rally. $ETH's weekly flow also turned negative (−$138m), while $BTC, $SOL and $HYPE stayed positive. Combined net inflows across the five assets fell to $15.2m from $3.31bn.

The past 7 days' lead underperformers were STAR 50 and silver. The chip-heavy STAR 50 fell 7.9% w/w, capping its worst quarter on record. $SLV dropped 6.3%, roughly double $GLD's 3.1% decline. Crypto, by contrast, remains among the best performers over 1M and 3M, as regulatory progress has outweighed a hiking Fed. For the STAR 50, one of the main headlines was a report that Beijing plans to let ByteDance and Alibaba buy a new @nvidia chip. That would send AI chip orders to Nvidia instead of domestic suppliers, translating into less revenue for index heavyweights like Cambricon, which designs the chips, and SMIC, which manufactures them. A thin two-month extension of the US-China truce and pre-holiday de-risking added to the pressure. $Silver, which has been trading more like leveraged gold recently, came under pressure from Iran-driven oil spikes and higher rate expectations. Unlike gold, it also lacks the central bank bid that cushions the downside. However, there are signs of relief. Yesterday's softer core PCE lowered the odds of an October hike. For the STAR 50, we'd expect a base rather than a sharp rebound until it's clear whether Beijing follows through on the Nvidia approval. Oil and yields remain the key things to watch.