In the late 2010s, the #Marlins flipped several star players in one of their habitual fire sales. Nearly a decade later, what can we learn from those trades? BTV contributor @EthanPechersky explores: baseballtradevalues.com/arti…

It would have been a fair deal, with each side giving up roughly $50M+ in the deal as proposed above.

We currently estimate Warren's surplus value at $25.5M, whereas Paredes is at $14.7M. So yes, the Astros would have to include another piece or two.

Yeah, that's a data error -- fixing now. Thanks for the catch.

(Reminder that minor league trades are still allowed after the deadline!)

Today the #BlueJays acquired RHP José Rodriguez ($0.3M surplus trade value) from the #Dodgers in exchange for RHP Sebastian Rodriguez (not yet in system). The deal is tentatively accepted by our model, pending S. Rodriguez's addition.

The most valuable players are almost never actually traded. Still, it's an important (and fun) thought exercise - which players have the most surplus value in baseball? @johnbitzer2 explores: baseballtradevalues.com/arti…

Now that the dust has settled - how did we do? What trends did we see? Founder @johnbitzer2 breaks down every angle of the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline: baseballtradevalues.com/arti…

That's a wrap for us today. Thanks to everyone for following us. Final tally of the summer season: 86 trades, of which 76 were accepted by our model (88%), with an average variance of 3.5. There were 10 misses, and we'll see what we can tweak to minimize those in the future.

Today the #Padres acquired RHP Hunter Stratton ($0.0M surplus trade value) from the #Pirates in exchange for RHP Andrew Moore ($0.1M). The deal is accepted by our model.

Today the #Dodgers acquired C Hunter Feduccia ($2.2M surplus trade value) and RHP Jacob Kmatz ($1.6M) from the #Rays in exchange for OF Jack Suwinski (-$0.3M) and international bonus pool space. The deal is tentatively accepted by our model, pending the value of the bonus space.

Today the #MMTwins reportedly acquired RHP Jeff Hoffman (-$6.1M surplus trade value) and cash ($3.75M) from the #BlueJays in exchange for LHP Dasan Hill ($8.3M), SS Dameury Pena ($0.5M) and RHP John Klein ($0.2M). The deal is rejected by our model as an overpay by Minnesota.

Today the #Cubs reportedly acquired RHP Clay Holmes ($2.3M surplus trade value) and OF Tyrone Taylor ($0.4M) from the #Mets in exchange for IF Jefferson Rojas ($18.2M). The deal is rejected by our model as an overpay by Chicago.

OF Carlos Gutierrez ($4.8M) also goes to Boston in this deal. Still rejected.

Today the #DBacks reportedly acquired OF Lars Nootbaar ($2.1M surplus trade value) from the #STLCards in exchange for RHP Daniel Eagen ($3.3M), LHP Sandro Santana ($0.7M) and a PTBNL. The deal is accepted by our model.

Today the #Phillies reportedly acquired OF Colby Thomas ($5.1M surplus trade value) from the #Athletics in exchange for RHP Seth Johnson ($0.1M). The deal is accepted by our model as a moderate underpay by Philadelphia.

Today the #STLCards reportedly acquired LHP Caleb Ferguson (-$0.3M surplus trade value) from the #Reds in exchange for $0.25M in international bonus pool space. The deal is accepted by our model.

Today the #Pirates reportedly acquired RHP Kirby Yates (-$0.8M surplus trade value) from the #Angels in exchange for RHP Kyle Robinson ($0.2M). The deal is accepted by our model.

Today the #Pirates reportedly acquired RHP Luke Bachar ($0.0M surplus trade value) from the #Marlins in exchange for IF Hyun Seung Lee ($2.3M), RHP Brandan Bidois ($1.4M) and OF Brian Sanchez ($0.2M). The deal is accepted by our model as a minor overpay by Pittsburgh.

Today the #Guardians reportedly acquired 1B Nathaniel Lowe ($0.4M surplus trade value) from the #Reds in exchange for RHP Alejandro Rivera ($3.2M). The deal is accepted by our model as a minor overpay by Cleveland.