What Bank of Volatility is, in one page: the daily briefing before the US open, a systematic book run since 2016, and three trades from the August book with their results as they were posted. Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

If AI stocks are dumping because a fund is blowing up then the moment the blow-up is confirmed and Citadel has their portfolio at a cent on the dollar, we go in with leverage and buy every name they held. But here is the catch, if AI stocks are dumping and no fund is blowing up, then you short them with leverage, as it means the AI crash is coming.

$MU at $897 is priced at 5 times what analysts expect it to earn next year. $TSLA near $360 goes for 186 times forward. A dollar of Tesla's past earnings costs you 30 times what the same dollar costs at Micron, and on forward numbers the gap widens to about 35 times. Adjust for growth and it gets stranger, with Micron's PEG at 0.07 against Tesla's near 10. Micron just printed around $74 in trailing EPS after a surge that caught most of the street flat footed, while Tesla's trailing EPS of roughly $1.08 has been shrinking. The market has decided memory is a cycle and Tesla is a story. Which one would you rather own at these prices? Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

AI used right

Looks like we are in Leopold sequel, not sure which AI 10x levered fund is going under rn

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Friday 16 October 2026, 12:45 CEST 🌍 WHAT MOVED MARKETS - Jakarta had its worst day since January 1998. The Jakarta Composite closed down 11.57% after MSCI said Indonesia no longer deserves emerging market status and set out a plan to drop it from its emerging indices, a move that would pull billions of passive dollars out; the rupiah fell as far as 18,070 per dollar. MSCI takes comments until April 2027 and decides by June 2027. Turkish stocks lost 3.2% after MSCI suspended some index changes there. - The rest of Asia bounced after Thursday's rout. The Nikkei rose 1.39% to 65,324 and the KOSPI 2.05% to 5,668, with foreign buyers back for 343.5 billion won, though Tokyo still ends the week down 5.37%, its worst week since July. - CoreWeave stays the stress point of the AI trade. Its October 2031 dollar bond briefly yielded more than 16% on Thursday, protection on its debt topped 1,000bp for a record, and the stock trades 4.1% lower before the bell, down about 15% on the week, with roughly 50 billion dollars of debt on the balance sheet. - Fed Chair Warsh kept his cards close in Bangkok, saying hotter inflation had not changed his view of the economy. Traders price about a 72% chance of a hold on 28 October and 92% for a December hike, and Cleveland's Hammack warned the Fed may have to hike harder if inflation expectations slip. - The dollar index fell 0.93% to 101.60, on course for its first weekly loss after three weeks of gains. - Futures at 12:45 CEST: /ES 7,805, about 0.2% higher, /NQ 30,128, VIX 16.09, down 2.3%, the October VIX future 16.98 and December 18.12. Today brings the October monthly options expiry. 📈 EQUITIES - Thursday's close: the Dow up 1.08% and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.08%, after Huang's defence of CoreWeave eased the pressure on chips. Over the week the Nasdaq is on track for a loss of more than 2% while the Dow heads for a gain near 1%. - Pre-market: Tesla up 4% on a redesigned Roadster due in 2028, J.B. Hunt down more than 20% after missing on transport, fuel and insurance costs, Varonis higher on Proofpoint's 6.3 billion dollar bid. Micron trades 1.7% under Thursday's close and Strategy 2.8%. GM and Travelers report before the open. - Europe at midday: Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.91%, DAX 1.20%, IBEX 1.20%, FTSE MIB 1.07%, CAC 40 0.53%, SMI 0.24%, FTSE 100 0.14%. Euro zone September inflation was confirmed at 3.8%, a three year high. Parts 2 and 3 (rates, FX, oil, metals, crypto, AI, calendar, bottom line) are free on Substack: bankofvol.substack.com/p/jak… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

Bank Of Volatility Market Update, Thursday 15 October 2026, 14:35 CEST US producer prices ran far hotter than expected in September. PPI rose 1.3% on the month against 0.6% expected and 6.3% on the year against 5.4%, the second highest reading since November 2022; core PPI rose 0.7% on the month against 0.3%, and 5.0% on the year against 4.4%. The consumer kept spending: retail sales rose 0.8% against 0.3% expected, core sales 0.9% against 0.5%. Initial jobless claims came in at 199,000 against 200,000. The New York Fed's manufacturing index jumped to 25.5 against 12 expected, and the Philadelphia Fed's slipped to 20.9 from 37.8, against 28 expected. After Wednesday's CPI, a hot PPI with strong retail sales puts a hike at the 27–28 October meeting firmly in play. Washington also told IEA members it is unhappy with the emergency oil release and suggested adding another 100 million barrels. Today's full briefing on Substack: bankofvol.substack.com/p/kos… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Thursday 15 October 2026, 11:20 CEST 🌍 WHAT MOVED MARKETS - Asia took the AI selloff and the hot CPI hard. The KOSPI closed down 7.57% at 5,554.22 after circuit breakers halted trading, its lowest close in about six months, with Samsung and SK Hynix leading the losses; the Nikkei fell 4.90% to 64,425.95 and Taiwan's TAIEX 3.41%. - Two fears drive it: a Fed that could hike as soon as this month after Wednesday's 0.3% core print, and the debt piling up behind AI infrastructure at stretched valuations. Fed's Daly said inflation risks remain high and more hikes are likely, with the timing under consideration and no urgency; UBS now expects a third hike in March 2027 instead of an end to the cycle in December. - Bonds caught the bid. The 10 year fell 8.6bp to 5.10% and the 2 year 6bp to 4.75%, Germany's 10 year dropped 8.4bp and the UK's 8.9bp; the dollar gave back Wednesday's gain, EUR/USD 1.1214, up 0.52%, USD/CHF 0.8294, down 0.68%. - Hormuz got worse overnight: the Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sank, the bulk carrier Cape Dao sank too, and Iran is said to be using new tactics against the US port blockade. CNN reported US strike plans that could include the GBU-43 "Mother of All Bombs" on Iranian energy and nuclear sites if fighting resumes; Trump has said no new action before the midterms while talks continue. - Washington is weighing easing sanctions on shadow-fleet tankers to cut freight rates and keep Gulf oil moving. WTI 95.35, up 0.3%, Brent 103.77, down 2.2%. Zelenskyy says Ukraine will restart strikes on Russian refineries. - Futures at 11:00 CEST: /ES 7,750.25, down 0.26%, /NQ 29,858.50, down 1.07%, /YM 52,038, up 0.35%, /RTY 2,751.40, up 0.23%. VIX 17.41, up 3.2%, the October VIX future 18.00, VVIX 94.45. 📈 EQUITIES - Wednesday's close: the Nasdaq 100 down 2.02% at 29,950.82, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.88%, the Dow down 0.09%; /ES settled at 7,770.25 after trading 7,748 at 20:00 CEST. - Pre-market the AI names keep sliding: Micron down 3.4%, AMD 2.6%, Nvidia 1.5%, the Nasdaq 100 ETF 1.1%, the 3x inverse semis ETF up 6.7%. Dow and Russell futures trade higher, so the selling stays inside AI and chips. - Europe is split at 11:00: STOXX 600 down 0.30%, Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.79%, DAX down 0.38%, AEX down 0.96%, TecDAX down 1.36%; FTSE 100 up 0.30%, CAC 40 up 0.28%, SMI up 0.39%. Eurozone industrial production fell 0.5% on the month against a flat forecast, down 1.1% on the year. - Rest of Asia: Hang Seng down 1.03%, Shanghai Composite 1.59%, CSI 300 1.23%, ASX All Ordinaries 0.32%. Japan's August core machinery orders jumped 5.2% against 2.3% expected. Parts 2 and 3 (rates, FX, oil, metals, crypto, AI, calendar, bottom line) are free on Substack: bankofvol.substack.com/p/kos… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

The market is down big today; but on BoV substack we are trimming profits. Two trades closed today, on the day CPI knocked 2% off the Nasdaq futures. $PBR, our Petrobras call spread: +195% $APO, our Apollo put spread: +148% The hedge we carry for sessions like this one stands near +90%. Paid subscribers followed both trades and the hedge in real time, with the market regime in every post: bankofvol.substack.com/subsc… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes http://only.isis

Fuck off jinxer.

A very important trade goes on at today's close, 4pm New York, 22:00 CEST. Trades of this kind have a strong record after the fact, and paid subscribers get this one in the Substack Chat before the bell, which rings in less than an hour. Anyone serious about managing money should be in the room for it. Join before 22:00 CEST: bankofvol.substack.com/subsc… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Wednesday 14 October 2026, 20:50 CEST 🌍 WHAT MOVED MARKETS - CPI hot where it counts. September headline up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, against 3.6% expected and 3.4% in August; core 0.3% on the month against 0.2%, 2.6% on the year against 2.5%. Gasoline did more than half the headline at +9.1%, but shelter, lodging, airfares and used cars firmed too, and supercore rose to 3.13% from 3.02%. - The market repriced the Fed. October hike odds jumped to the mid-40s from the low 20s, the 2 year rose about 7bp toward 4.87%, the dollar pushed toward its 18 month high, and Citi added a December hike to its forecast. Williams still sees one more hike this year and none in 2027. - The Beige Book did not help: prices rising robustly in three districts and moderately in eight, input costs intensifying in places, growth moderate in only two of twelve, hiring flat in most. Barkin: the investment side of the economy is largely AI, and AI spending cannot be counted on to grow forever. - Wall Street at 20:00: /ES 7,747.75, down 1.37%, /NQ 30,137.25, down 2.12%, /RTY 2,737.70, down 2.23%, /YM 51,647, down 0.55%. VIX 17.24, up 12.9%, VVIX 97.41, the equity put/call 0.80, up 25%. - ASML cannot build enough: record third quarter sales of 11.7 billion euros, a fourth quarter guided to 14.2 to 15.2 billion, and supply "for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers". The chip tape ignored it after the print. - Houthis struck Saudi Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, damaging the top floors of a tower, and hit Riyadh's King Khalid airport with a ballistic missile; drones hit the Saratov and Ryazan refineries in Russia. WTI 95.64, up 1.6%. 📈 EQUITIES - Chips led the selling: the SOX down 4.3% to 11,690, AMD 5.8%, Nvidia 3.5%, Broadcom 3.4%, Micron 3.3%, the 3x semis ETF 13.2%. Oracle fell 9.0%, Bloom Energy 9.8%, Corning 6.1%, Palo Alto 5.0%, Nokia 5.0%, Strategy 6.2%; CoreWeave's CEO blamed his stock's drop on an irrational market. - Defensives held: Johnson & Johnson up 1.8%, healthcare 2.2%, Moderna 3.6%, ADP 1.0%, Adobe 0.9%, Apple 0.2%, energy 0.6%. The equal weight S&P lost 1.0% against 1.4% for the index. - Europe traded higher into the print, STOXX 600 up 0.65% at midday, the AEX up 0.9% on ASML. Asia: KOSPI 6,008.81, down 0.44%, Nikkei down 0.05%, CSI 300 down 1.36%. Parts 2 and 3 (rates, FX, oil, metals, crypto, calendar, bottom line) are free on Substack: bankofvol.substack.com/p/cor… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Tuesday 13 October 2026, 14:55 CEST 🌍 WHAT MOVED MARKETS - Korea's chip rout. Reports that China's CXMT is closing the memory gap sent the KOSPI down 5.5% at the close after a 7% fall intraday, a fifth straight loss, its longest streak in over two years and a quarter off the July high. Samsung lost 10%, SK hynix 8%, Kioxia 13% in Tokyo. Broadcom's Hock Tan likened some AI flows to "casino gambling", and BlackRock's research arm cut US stocks to neutral. - The banks: mixed. JPMorgan missed for the first time since Q4 2023, 5.57 a share against 5.85, investment banking fees down 8% on the quarter, the stock back to up 0.8% after a 3% drop. Goldman 17.01 against 13.02 on equities revenue up 72%, the stock up 3.8%. Citi 2.85 against 2.66, profit up 40% on the year. Wells Fargo 1.87 against 1.85 but net interest income and revenue short, the stock down 1%. - The IMF, from Bangkok: world growth 3.1% this year and 3.4% next if Hormuz reopens by March; oil above 130 into 2027 would cost half a point, and a sharp drop in AI investment 1.1% of world GDP by 2028, 1.8% in the US. Georgieva: an economy "standing on one leg, the AI leg". - Oil gives back 2%. Brent 104.63, down 1.89%, WTI 91.85, down 2.02%, a day after Brent settled at its highest since 15 September. OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth to 400,000 b/d, a sixth cut, raised 2027 to rebuild stocks, and reported Saudi output at 8.372 million b/d in September, up 2 million on August. - Treasuries bid: the 10 year 5.19%, its lowest since 2 October, after 5.36% last week. 📈 EQUITIES - Wall Street on Monday: Dow 51,850.55, up 0.38%, S&P 500 7,807.24, down 0.06%, Nasdaq 27,245.90, down 0.44%. The SOX fell 2.7% to a three-week low, energy gained 1.5%, Meta rose 3.4% and Microsoft 1.1%, back above 4 trillion dollars. - Futures at 14:45: /ES 7,851.00, down 0.09%, /NQ 30,661.00, down 0.77%, /YM 52,546, up 0.84%. VIX 15.31, up 0.10. - Pre-market, on the bids: Micron down 5.2%, Nvidia 1%, AMD 2.2%, Broadcom 1.6%, Western Digital, Seagate and Sandisk 3.2% to 4.8%; the Korea ETF EWY 4.1% lower. UnitedHealth up 2% after raising its 2026 forecast, Johnson & Johnson down 2.3% on a small beat, TLT up 0.6%. - Asia: KOSPI down 5.5%, Nikkei 67,777.52, down 1.82%, TAIEX 48,341.31, down 1.95%, Shenzhen down 1.79%, Hang Seng 24,345.22, up 0.30%, Shanghai 3,800.86, up 0.10%. President Lee calls a Korean rate rise "almost a foregone conclusion". - Europe holds: STOXX 600 637.07, up 0.22%, DAX 25,295.65, up 0.07%, CAC 40 7,835.60, up 0.03%, FTSE MIB 50,124.72, up 0.18%, FTSE 100 10,707.98, up 0.49% at a three-week high on the banks, SMI 13,992.60, up 0.83%. LVMH down 1.3% after weaker Q3 sales, fashion and leather shrinking on China. Parts 2 and 3 (rates, FX, oil, metals, crypto, calendar, bottom line) are free on Substack: bankofvol.substack.com/p/kos… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

A trade from the August book. Wednesday 19 August, the day the Moderna and Merck melanoma result came out: Tempus AI was the read-across, and we put on a combination, a short put paying for a long call, and posted it to subscribers in the chat as it was done. If the read-across had failed, the short put carried the risk. Closed on 24 August at +150%. Trades like this reach paid subscribers as they happen, with the entry and the levels to watch. Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only. The trades, the levels and the daily briefing: bankofvol.substack.com/subsc…

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Monday 12 October 2026, 15:05 CEST 🌍 WHAT MOVED MARKETS • Riyadh under fire. Two attacks on Riyadh's airport, Saturday's claimed by the Houthis with 13 dead and more than 300 injured, keep it closed on Monday. Lufthansa has cancelled its Riyadh flights to 16 October, Air France-KLM to the end of the month, and BP's chief pulled out of the World Petroleum Council congress in the city. • Trump's diesel deal with Putin. Russia is to ship more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel at once, 500,000 in November and a million after that, with US imports of Russian diesel licensed to 7 April. Zelensky called it "an investment in a war that must stop". The "energy ceasefire" Washington announced on Sunday was denied by Kyiv, and the Kremlin says the talks continue. • Oil shrugs it off. Brent 106.75, up 2.5%, and WTI 93.78, up 2.3%, after opening lower. Tehran calls the US answer on reopening Hormuz "insufficient", and the IEA has asked members to weigh a further diesel release before its 15 October board. • Hurricane Isaias shut in about 1.5 million barrels a day in the Gulf of Mexico, 72% of the region's oil output, before landfall on the Florida Panhandle. • US cash Treasuries are closed for Columbus Day and Tokyo for Sports Day, so volume is thin ahead of CPI on Wednesday and the banks from Tuesday. 📈 EQUITIES • Wall Street closed higher on Friday: S&P 500 7,811.54, up 0.59% and a few points from its record, Dow 51,654.95, up 0.83%, Nasdaq 27,366.17, up 0.64%, with Microsoft up 2.4% and Amazon up 3.3%. • Futures flat: /ES 7,862.75, up 0.04%, /NQ 31,064.00, down 0.14%. VIX 15.51, up 4.5%. • Pre-market: chips offered again, Micron down 2.2% and Nvidia down 0.4%; IREN up 5.4% on a report of a multi-year cloud contract with Anthropic; tankers bid, Frontline up 3.8% and Teekay Tankers up 1.4%. Amazon is in talks to buy the AI start-up Decart for close to 7 billion dollars (WSJ), and Nvidia may raise its stake in Reflection AI or buy it outright (FT). • Asia: Seoul fell 3.65% to 6,384.24, a fourth straight loss and 8.9% off in four sessions, as foreign investors sold about 2 trillion won of stock, most of it chips. Samsung lost 4.4% and SK hynix 4.5% on a record quarter, the end of their buybacks and the AI-bubble talk doing the damage; KOSDAQ fell 4.8%. Hang Seng 24,271.20, up 0.25%, Shanghai 3,797.24, down 0.43%, Taipei flat, Tokyo closed. • Europe up on the China-EU car deal: STOXX 600 635.38, up 0.61%, DAX 25,263.40, up 0.70%, CAC 40 7,828.84, up 0.33%, FTSE MIB 50,071.57, up 0.65%, FTSE 100 10,630.17, up 0.74%, SMI 13,837.64, up 0.36%. Renault, Stellantis and Forvia gain about 2% as Chinese hybrid imports are capped at 350,000 a year; Volkswagen's Q3 deliveries fell 14%. Parts 2 and 3 (rates, currencies, oil, metals, crypto, calendar and the bottom line) are free on Substack, link here: bankofvol.substack.com/p/bre… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

Physics works 👏

Hedge of the week: one-day S&P 500 futures puts bought at Wednesday's close for 14.83 points expired on Thursday worth about 34, more than twice their cost. Most investors, institutions included, hedge after the drawdown has started. Protection is expensive by then, and over a full cycle that insurance costs them money. Our bots hedge ahead of the fall, on a statistical edge, so the hedge pays for itself and then adds to performance. We know of no other hedge in the industry that does both. The daily briefing and the market regime: bankofvol.substack.com Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.