NFL Week 6 Observations Bears 31, Falcons 23 - Caleb Williams returned and went 30/36 for 305 passing yards and a score through the air. If you are among those that have accuracy concerns about Williams, this would be a good game to watch to give yourself some opposition research. - Perhaps more importantly, he took a couple of awkward shots in this game and didn’t have any kind of injury setback. - The first score the Bears had was an unreal throw from Williams, with a very difficult contact catch from Colston Loveland. - Loveland, Luther Burden, Rome Odunze and D’Andre Swift all had good games, to varying degrees of production. But I’d call this the best game Roschon Johnson has had as a pro. - Bears nickel corner Kyle Gordon returned, and had one of the absolute best downhill games I’ve ever seen from a corner. Not only did he have 5 pressures and 3 sacks (seriously), but he had a tackle for a loss where his blitz angle had him go through B gap, which is generally not a place for a corner. - Rooke safety Dillon Thieneman also had a sack, which shows you that Dennis Allen got creative to generate pressure today. - Cam Lewis had a tackle in space on Bijan Robinson that if Lewis doesn’t make it, fair chance Robinson breaks that for a 50 yard run. - The Bears started playing their backups on defense a little early, which opened the door for Michael Penix and his passing attack to creep back into this game late. - Kyle Pitts went 5-60-2 - The Falcons pass rush had a better game than I was expecting. They’ve had a pretty good year in general, but they were more impactful than I was expecting. - There were a lot of Bears fans at this game, you could hear them on the broadcast throughout the game. Cardinals 18, Rams 16 - I’ve been early on a lot of things over the years, and I’m pretty good at figuring out paths to failure for large favorites. But I did not see this outcome coming, in this game. - One aspect that stuck out to me is that when Arizona does this kind of thing over the last several years, they play up from a physicality standpoint. The Cardinals won both trenches, and that was very unexpected. Their tight ends, Trey McBride and Elijah Higgins had some very tough runs after the catch as well. - So was Bam Knight, who had 98 yards on 15 carries and 2 receptions. - The Cardinals kicked six field goals, all 45 yards or shorter, including the 43 yarder to win as time expired. - There was a very suspect call on the Rams for hitting a defenseless Cardinals receiver. I don’t normally mention penalties, but this one was bad. - Perhaps strangest of all in this game, I’d say the Rams offense was fairly flat and seemed to lack urgency for a 2-3 team, but I can’t exactly say they played bad, either. They definitely could have been better. - Cardinals safety Budda Baker had a nice game. Texans 34 Jaguars 31 (London) - Speaking of unexpected, I’m not stunned both quarterbacks played well with 300 yards passing a piece, especially considering that these teams had a high scoring affair in one of their games last year. But I was pretty floored that neither team’s pass rush had a very impactful game. - CJ Stroud in particular is having a very good year. - Eight different Texans had at least two receptions, which was something that stood out to me enough I went out of my way to count after the game ended. That includes 3 receptions for 34 yards from newly acquired Marvin Harrison Jr. - Texans kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn hit a 49 yarder as time expired to win this game. - Travis Hunter had an interception on defense while going 4-59-1 as a receiver - Brian Thomas went without a catch and didn’t play in the second half - The Jaguars backfield looked roughly split between Chris Rodriguez (11 carries) and Bhayshul Tuten (12 carries), but Tuten had 4 receptions for 48 yards and 2 scores on 4 targets. Saints 34, Giants 27 - New York’s four turnovers, including two sailed picks from Jameis Winston and a fumbled kickoff return before half, is the primary driver behind this outcome. - However, New York’s running back deployments blew my mind, where Cam Skattebo went from a rumored role reduction (which would have made sense) to seeing zero carries in a plus matchup. Tyrone Tracy had 45 total yards and 2 scores on 8 touches, while Najee Harris and Devin Singletary had 4 totes a piece. - Malik Nabers went 12-165 on 15 targets and looked like he could see absolutely monster volume if New York is in negative game scripts. - Isaiah Likely went for 6-99-1 on 11 targets, making a really nice catch on his score. - Off the top of my head, I’m not sure any offense in the NFL concentrates their passing game volume more than New York. - J.J. McCarthy came on in relief duty in an embarrassingly bad negative game script, but he played well in that environment. I put McCarthy in the Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough bucket at the end of the last year, as all three players have similar physical traits. - Speaking of Shough, the Giants gave him some layups over the middle of the field, one in particular in a goal to go spot, that I viewed as malpractice given what I’ve seen of Shough. - Kendre Miller had 20 carries, but only for 70 yards. Alvin Kamara scored on a catch and run where he showed that he’s still got it in traffic. - The Saints pass rush had a very good game. I wouldn’t say New Orleans offense had a particularly strong game considering they scored 34 points, but their front generated a ton of pressure, had 5 sacks, and forced four turnovers, driving this outcome. - Chase Young, in particular had a really nice game. - New York’s pass rush was close to nonexistent. Panthers 25, Eagles 14 - Tanner McKee made a nice, high difficulty throw on DeVonta Smith’s 20ish yard score (Smith went 7-75-1 on 14 targets), but McKee did not strike me as a very good quarterback, where I’d imagine a ton of his 26 completions traveled 5 yards or less. - I could see Dallas Goedert seeing some solid volume with McKee. - The Eagles defense played well, especially in the first half, and kept them in this game for a long time, as this game was 13-7 Panthers going into the fourth, but the levy broke in the fourth, in part due to a blocked punt by Carolina. - I would not say Bryce Young played particularly well until the fourth quarter, I would guess a ton of Carolina’s offensive production came in the fourth, I’m talking half or more. - I would imagine Carolina won time of possession by quite a bit. Browns 13, Ravens 10 - Declan Doyle had a very good game script, where Baltimore scored all 10 of their points of their first two drives. But the Browns’ defense adjusted, and shut out the Ravens for three quarters. - Both teams had impactful pass rushes, especially Baltimore where Cleveland’s offensive line is a general negative, but Deshaun Watson is also taking some sacks most weeks where he could get rid of it. - The Ravens shut out Cleveland in the first half. - Derrick Henry lost a fumble in the fourth quarter that led to a short field (roughly 35 yards) scoring drive that ended in a game tying touchdown. - Cleveland hit a 37 yard field goal as time expired to win. Titans 26, Colts 20 - The Titans won their first game, where I’d say that outcome was driven by special teams, that began when the Titans were down 13-6 in the fourth quarter. - The first was off a 50 plus yard punt return, that led to a short field (around 30 yard) touchdown drive that tied it. - On the next drive, the Titans blocked a punt that they scored on to go up by 7. The Colts followed that with their best drive of the game to tie it. - Tennessee then had a big kickoff return for 50ish yards, that was negated by penalty, then they hit a 35ish yard pass interference penalty which drove their go ahead, and eventual game winning field goal drive. - Cam Ward barely had 100 passing yards. - Jonathan Taylor had 94 yards rushing and a score, with 57 yards on 2 receptions, including a chunk play off a screen pass where Taylor could have been tackled at the catch, but instead go around 40 yards on it. Taylor also lost a fumble. - The Colts pass rush was basically non existent. - Tennessee’s pass rush had a very nice game, with 6 sacks and regular pressure. Jeffery Simmons and Jermain Johnson both had very good games. - Daniel Jones has never been equipped to carry an offense, where his down 3 with roughly 2 minutes to go drive was not entirely his fault, but as underwhelming as most of Jones career has been. Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19 (OT) - Pittsburgh had absolutely no offense until the fourth quarter, where Aaron Rodgers was absolutely under siege. - Linebacker David Walker had a really good game for the Bucs, who had 5 sacks and a ton of pressure as a team. - Then Rodgers played a very veteran fourth quarter, with a ton of quick hitters, where DK Metcalf and Germie Bernard both had 11 receptions with neither receiver hitting 100 yards. - Bernard made a very heady play in space, going down on a reception before half giving the Steelers enough time to come down and clock it. - Jalon Daniels turned back into a pumpkin against a real NFL defense, throwing 2 interceptions, missing a wide open Ebuka on a potential explosive score. He can run and he’s scrappy, but he’s a liability as a passer against real NFL defenses. - The Steelers pass rush was impactful, with Nick Herbig and Jalen Ramsey having very good games. Ramsey had the game sealing sack. - Neither team had much success on the ground via their running backs, but Jaylen Warren had a few impactful receptions late. Patriots 26, Jets 19 - Another very good game from Drake Maye against a team that didn’t generate much pressure with close to no genuinely hard to manage pressure. - In one instance Maye hit Romeo Doubs for a long score, where Maye had a month in the pocket. - AJ Brown went 3-27 on 10 targets. Brown also had a fumble that he recovered. - The Jets offense actually played a little better than I was expecting, with rookie receiver Omar Cooper going 6-103-1. - The Patriots front had a solid game in both phases (run defense/ pass rush) - New England’s two lost fumbles helped keep this game close. Bills 33, Raiders 30 - The Bills kicked four field goals, while the Raiders kicked three. - Trey Tucker (5-97-2) and Michael Mayer (7-95) led the Raiders in receiving behind a 313 yard passing day from Kirk Cousins. - Mike Washington ran for 43 yards on 9 carries, while Ashton Jeanty ran for 22 and a score on 10 carries. Jeanty added 36 receiving yards on 4 receptions off 6 targets. This is not the first time this season I’ve thought Jeanty was more of a value add as a pass catcher than a runner. - This is another game that went over 60 total points where I’d say both offenses were good, but I wouldn’t call either great. - It seemed like James Cook accounted for around half of Buffalo’s offense. - The Raiders pass rush actually had a more impactful day than Buffalo’s, but neither group had a big difference making day. - If the Bills lose in the playoffs this year, high chance it’s their defense that drives that outcome. Chiefs 22, Chargers 6 - Same story for the Chargers offense: The offensive line is so bad it gives them no real shot on the ground or via the air, but Justin Herbert had another atrocious interception in this game and Mike McDaniel is not doing anything to help this time from a play calling standpoint. - Trauma, often driven by bad offensive line play, is a thing I’ve seen impact a number of quarterbacks over the years, and what I’m noticing out of Herbert is starting to look like that, where his clock and instincts are off because of what he had to endure last year, and what he’s enduring now. Where again, he wasn’t bad last year, if anything he elevated a bad supporting cast in an impossible situation last year. But he has been bad this year, on top of enduring the bad environment. - The Chargers should have a fire sale. Khalil Mack definitely. Derwin James, depends on what you can get, but probably. If someone is crazy enough to give them a Marvin Harrison Jr. haul for Omarian Hampton, I’d do that too. - The Chiefs’ pass rush was impactful and I don’t think the Chargers were even close to 100 yards on the ground as a team. - Kenneth Walker ran for 128 yards and 2 scores on 19 carries and continues to look like the league’s best offseason addition. - Patrick Mahomes threw his own pretty bad pick in a goal to go situation after Herbert’s pick, but he was otherwise efficient. - Kansas City failed on a fourth and goal from the 1 on another drive, so this score could have easily be in the 35-6 range. - Xavier Worthy had a solid game where he was a clear central part of the early game plan. - Chiefs tight ends Travis Kelce and Noah Gray combined for over 100 yards receiving. Kelce was on the sideline with some kind of injury, but he returned. Packers 23, Cowboys 13 - There is no shame in losing in Lambeau Field to the Packers, many teams have done it over the past 30 years. Jordan Love is a Dak Prescott level quarterback, and Matt LaFleur is a top 10 coach, the Cowboys losing isn't a problem for me in this spot. It's the manner in which they lost that's a step past concerning. - Most positively for Green Bay is they were a Christian Watson drop in the endzone away from being very close to Watson and Matthew Golden both going for 100 yards and a score (Watson would have still needed more yardage). That duo is one of the best wide receiver pairs in the league and what I view as the strength of the team along with Love. - That said, this was an absolutely brutal performance from Dallas coming off a bad loss, and a long week. They just had no response, which is the aspect I’d put on Brian Schottenheimer and his staff. The NFC East is basically free for the first time in years, and Dallas just can’t take advantage of it. - To make matters worse, the Cowboys’ defense wasn’t all that bad. Their pass rush was fairly impactful and Green Bay had no running game. - Prescott was terrible and I was pretty shocked that the Cowboys basically abandoned the run in this matchup, especially with how Prescott was playing and that the Cowboys’ offensive line was relatively fine. - Zero coaching value add, bad quarterback play, in this spot, just dreadful. - The truth is, Dallas should blow this up because this team is going nowhere anytime soon. New head coach is a no brainer, and honestly if they did something rash like fire Schottenheimer right now, I’d get it, but they should really entertain moving Prescott and starting over if they could get a real haul for him. They wouldn’t be adding players like Joey Porter Jr. (who looked like he played well in his debut) if that was even mildly on their radar, but I’ve thought this for a few years now and Dallas continues to be trapped in mediocrity. I have watched every NFL game for roughly a decade. I have done this for the purpose of sports speculation. I run a reality-based program here. Engagement is how I reach new users. So as long as engagement remains strong (comments/ shares) I’ll continue pumping this and similarly detailed insights out every week. Note: I don’t edit this, as I’m getting this out as Sunday Night Football ends