Cliveden House burnt down in 1849. The architect behind Parliament rebuilt it in two years. Now, Parliament has spent over a decade just planning its own repairs. What happened to the country that built things? 👇

Launching what I’m calling “an agent a day keeps Phase 2 failures away” It’s come to my attention that many people don’t see how AI can be helpful for biotech. So, every day for the next 30 days, I will be posting an agent that can be helpful for biotech and pharma companies. The agents will span all departments and phases of R&D. Hopefully this will inspire some folks to use AI in novel ways

Surveyed Anthropic staff's answers imply 17.1% GDP growth in 2030

The majority of founders will fail on fundraising calls for mistakes in the first 5 mins on a call: 1. They bring multiple people. No bueno. It’s a 30 min call. You need to build the relationship; 1-1 only. 2. Ask Questions Early: They Are Buying, Not Just You Selling: The VC introduces themselves: Bad: the founder has zero questions. This is most common. Decent: is 1 question that is meh. Good ones: ask thoughtful question on investment process: “how does investment decision making look”. Great founders: ask spicy or controversial questions about past challenging investments. 3. Intro Disaster: Lord keep your intro short. I don’t want to hear about the orchestra society you joined at law school unless it had an impact on you. Clearly break your life into three chapters that shaped the person on the call. Make them crisp. Max 3 mins. If they want more, they can ask. They are the ones buying. Don’t ruin your fundraising chances in the first 5 mins. Do this instead.

there are only two ideas left btw: - data labelling - RL environments

SFoids love to performatively talk extremely quickly to signal their intelligence. Did they learn this from high school debate?

i talked to a few investors and founders this week, and we tend to agree on something: ai will accelerate biology and life sciences, and eventually help us solve diseases. ai has already changed early-stage drug discovery and preclinical research. and i think it can do the same to clinical development. imagine ai increases the probability of clinical success from 2% to 20%. that is a 10x improvement. enormous. but 20% still means, statistically, you need a portfolio of multiple clinical shots to have a high probability of producing a successful drug. and this is where the problem changes. a large pharma company can run a portfolio. a startup often cannot. if you can only afford one or two clinical programs, even a 10x improvement in the underlying science may not be enough. with a 20% success probability per independent trial, one shot still fails 80% of the time. two shots both fail 64% of the time. the ai worked. the biology improved. the startup still died. this makes me think the next bottleneck in ai-driven medicine may not be intelligence. it may be capital. we are spending extraordinary amounts of money building intelligence. but once that intelligence exists, we also need enough capital behind biology to actually let it take enough shots. otherwise we could have models capable of dramatically improving drug discovery while the companies trying to turn those discoveries into medicines continue dying from portfolio risk. after intelligence, capital needs to move toward biology. not because llms matter less, but because intelligence only changes the world when we finance the physical experiments required to turn predictions into reality. first intelligence. then we live forever.

I love this actually because people dont realize how insidious this is. If humans spend a large quantity of time talking to AI, and they spend a large quantity of time bullying or being abusive to it, the interactions are "human enough" meaning that, regardless of if the AI has a subjective experiance, the human does, and abusive behavior will become the norm. In a vacuum that person will become problematic for society, the same way that those who hurt animals in private do. An entire generation of psychos could emerge without the same societal pressure to not be a jerk.

🚨 Sir Demis Hassabis in talks to raise new funding at a ~$50 BILLION valuation for Isomorphic Labs Mission: Solve all disease ITS HAPPENING

name one job you’re 100% sure AI will never replace. i’m curious.

"convert all 722 preprints into 3blue1brown videos. don't make mistakes."

6-12 months ago the large labs started buying bio data this spend is starting to ramp very aggressively. the labs are somewhat indiscriminate buyers with enormous budgets. the therapeutics market has long had buyers of data (large and small pharma) but they've historically been the exact opposite of huge-budget and indiscriminate this shift will distort the bio startup market in a bunch of ways. there will be a lot of short-termist behavior to try to get in front of this capital firehouse. but unlike the AI data labelers (mercor, et al) and the robotics labelers (mecka, et al), the bio startups serving up this data have a chance to emerge from this period with businesses that don't rely on selling data the best bio startups will use these sudden resources the labs are dumping on them to supercharge their novel assay and work towards independently powerful models and eventually directly produce therapies bio is the final frontier and its a very exciting time ahead for bio startups IMO