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2025 Mindset
“Everything I do is about early detection of change. That’s it.” - @ChrisCamillo
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Ben Horowitz reveals Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told him its AI compute is sold out beyond 2028, and says that shortage makes this fundamentally different from the dot-com bubble
“This shortage is so bad. You know, I was speaking with Andy Jassy, who runs Amazon, yesterday. And I said, yeah, like, we’re out of everything, you know, till 2028. He’s like, oh, it’s beyond 2028. Like, I don’t think we get stuff back, like, end of 2028, maybe. So everything else is sold out.”
“So he has the advantage of that, he’s got supply in a great shortage, which is extremely different than the internet bubble. The internet bubble, we didn’t have enough demand, because we had to build the internet, people had to get broadband, you know, you needed all this stuff people had to buy, you know, originally, they had to get their browser at price, all this kind of thing.”
“There weren’t enough consumers on the internet to absorb all the bandwidth that had gotten built out. And they had a massive amount of debt, not unlike we’re building today, although not as big. But the lack of demand killed it. We don’t really have a lack of demand in AI. So I think the dynamics will be different.”
“I do think, like, for sure, if you get into a pathological debt situation, that can wreck anybody. It’s why, by the way, we’re not invested in any of these neo-clouds either, for that reason.”
Chamath says credit default swaps price CoreWeave’s chance of default at about 55% over five years, a coin flip set by the smartest money
“The most important thing that you should always look at is how the sharps, the super smart money, prices risk.”
“And when you’re dealing with companies like CoreWeave or Nebius or IREN, et cetera, that have to borrow a lot to fund these boxes, the smart money is trading what’s called a credit derivative swap. Okay, this is default insurance. And these default swaps are meant to insure the bondholders against a potential default.”
“That risk spiked this week to about 953 basis points, which it doesn’t matter what that number is. But as an imputed risk, it’s about a 16% chance of a default in any given year. And over a five-year duration, what that math implies is about a 55% chance of a default. So it’s a coin flip, whether they default or not.”
“That’s not what I’m saying. That’s what the insurance market was saying about their debt. And I think that’s something to look into, because those guys, I think, are the smartest money in all of this.”
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i’d probably use grok bot a lot more if i knew it was using opus 5.5
it’s hard to trust something without transparency on the model you’re using.
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Among female teens, Ugg jumped one rank to No. 3, replacing Converse, although the biggest non-athletic winner is Birkenstock as it gained 3 points of mindshare to take the fourth spot in this year’s overall ranking. $BIRK $DECK
What Teens Want in Shoes Now: These Casual Brands Are Edging Their Way in as Top Athletic Brands Lose Some Ground trib.al/wJPQk2r
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$NVDA
JENSEN ON IF AI REVENUES ARE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY CAPEX:
"Compute spend is only going higher. Nvidia has many different partners we work with. Honestly, we are putting too much emphasis with one or two companies. They will be great, but so will many others."
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We are releasing Ultramarine 1 Flash, a frontier-class model built for knowledge work. It is open-source and achieves similar performance to Fable 5, while being 60x cheaper.
It was post-trained by a team of 5 for ~$300k all-in. Available on API now, with weights releasing in 2 weeks.
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$VFC up on 3 upgrades over the past few days. Increasingly interesting name with improving alt data against a pretty low bar for Vans.
Our view is that TNF remains a structural share loser and Timberland is stable, though both face tough comps and a difficult weather backdrop with Super El Nino. What matters most is if/when Vans can find its footing.
We think Vans needs a Samba level trend to reignite excitement around the brand. Recent drops like the bedazzled Old Skool 36 Pearlized have performed well in DTC, but we're not convinced they have broad enough appeal to move the needle, and we haven't seen how they perform in wholesale.
With athletic footwear closets increasingly saturated and consumers shifting toward brown shoes, Vans should be well positioned to benefit. The archive gives them plenty to work with, but we still haven't seen the product that can drive sustained demand at scale.
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Hi, I'm Felix. I'm an eng lead working on Claude. I love watching people take flight and do things they never thought possible.
We often describe that as "being more ambitious" when using AI, which is tricky advice to follow. I wrote a tutorial:
felixrieseberg.com/how-to-be…
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Introducing Muse Wonder, our new family of frontier models with state of the art performance for personal and professional agentic work.
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It’s feeling really magical inside of Shopify right now. It’s clearly the greatest time in the history of tech industry right now. I hope it feels similar everywhere else.
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🗞️ if your team is too busy doing their 'normal job' to experiment with AI, you're preparing them to be replaced
ghuntley.com/replaced/
In this post, I guess this's the last time I'll say it. AI use is no longer optional if you wish to be employed. What follows is advice for current employees and hiring managers on how to hire in 2026 to source AI-first candidates.
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google and spacexai are serving claude models in their first class products because it’s so good
this will be like rocket fuel for dario and sam won’t be happy.
WOW Anthropic is on a generational run lately!
You get up to $100 in credits for setting up your project in the first 24h so it doesn't use up your normal usage limit.
ok opus 5.5 xhigh is quite slow... high/medium is great for rapid iteration!
notable quality improvement at xhigh vs high though for that
then max / ultracode (multi-agent) is another substantial step up in time and quality
interestingly I feel Fable still shows as a better model tier, but 5.5 clearly has that new generation performance
I have to say it again, Claude is so good
Opus 5.5 can be so fast, xhigh and max can slug but they are insanely thorough
Have so much confidence, so many agents are used and they use deep research
Clarity into the traces instills so much confidence
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SpaceX has arrived.
We announced an agreement to acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum license portfolio that will pave the way for @Starlink to become a major mobile carrier in the US.
With this new spectrum and our Gen2 constellation, Starlink Mobile can ensure Americans have access to high-speed mobile broadband no matter where they are → spacex.com/updates#starlink-…
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Replying to @TheDeadbeatLeb1
numbers didn’t go down for those of us who understand the difference between gross and net revenue.
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Expedia did $120B in bookings last year. Reported just $15B in revenue. Most of the money went to its hotel and airline partners.
OpenAI’s $70B vs $50B drama? Investors calculated the higher figure by including AI sales through cloud partners. That’s real customer spending, regardless of who reports the revenue.
The $20B didn’t disappear. Apparently critical thinking did.


























