https://xitter.cf/t.co/zBr6S9H4rD Football lover, best ball degenerate, data analyst, gamer, dad, process truster, Philly sports fan.
Joined August 2021
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BBM Portfolio is now live for the 2026 season. Track your BBM7 teams with:
- Detailed weekly recaps
- Simulated advance probabilities for every entry
- Weekly watch guide
- Injury tracking and luck vs. the field
Search your username (free, no login) at BestBallMuse.com
How dead is a struggling BBM team after week 4?
Depends on how far behind it is. Here's how often those teams still advanced to week 15 over the last 3 years of BBM.
0 to 20 pts behind: 27% adv
20 to 40: 18%
40 to 60: 12%
60+ behind: 4%
Full ahead/behind breakdown below.
This is just using historical benchmarks. The advance simulations I do on the site are pod/injury aware.
On the team search tab you can filter for "probably dead" teams (more than 50 pts behind 2nd), and sort by simulated advance probability to see your teams that are struggling but still have a solid chance to advance.
Exposures tab + watch guide are some of my favorite new features.
The exposures tab lets you filter out "probably dead" entries and see which players you're heavy on among entries that still have a chance to advance.
The watch guide shows you which players you should care about for best ball each week using that same entry status awareness.
I'm currently at 39/119 (32.8%), ranking #41 of the 2,187 drafters with at least 100 entries.
Shoutout to my 31 Chuba Hubbard teams. Chuba has the 3rd highest advance rate in BBM right now btw: 37.8%.
Week 1 had a historically high fantasy output, especially for RBs
- 25 total player spike weeks, average week has 16.5
- 9 RBs with 2+ TDs, average is 4.3
- 35 total RB touchdowns, average is 25.9
Over last 86 relevant fantasy weeks, 2026's Week 1 ranked 3rd in spike weeks.
Calc'd using 2021-2026 data, weeks 1-17 + 2026 week 1. Underdog half-ppr scoring.
Spike week is defined as weekly player score at cutoffs by position below.
QB: 30+
RB: 20+
WR: 20+
TE: 15+
Week 1 spike stats for the last 5 years below.
For best ball, 9 of the 10 RB spike weeks came from RBs drafted in the first 5 rounds.
Chuba Hubbard was the only "zero-RB target" that had a spike week in Week 1.
It's a long season and zero-RB builds depend on back-half of season production, but not a great start for the zero-RB truthers out there.
Reaching at the 1-2 turn to "flip the board" DOES get you rare starting combos.
But the uniqueness bump is NOT WORTH the advance rate price. Starting combo uniqueness barely matters in the playoffs.
Over 5 seasons, reachers advanced at 12.8% vs. 17.3% for non-reachers. 🧵
More generally, teams that capture less ADP value because they're always reaching advance at a significantly lower rate (equal weighted across last 5 seasons)
Top ADP value quintile: 19.8% advance rate
Bottom ADP value quintile: 12.8% advance rate
Kalshi opened fantasy football futures one year ago today. Contracts settle using ESPN PPR scoring.
Those markets have grown this year: $45k in open interest today vs. $32k at kickoff last year.
Still tiny in context- 0.06% of total NFL prediction market open interest.
Meanwhile Kalshi's Super Bowl market currently has $50.7M open interest, up from $2.9M last year, 29 days out. 17x growth in a year!!
If fantasy futures ever boom like that, these prediction markets become a barometer to measure ADPs against, especially on DK (full PPR)
