These MRP polls are showing different pictures for the right, BUT critically they all lead to a Lab/Lib coalition, as I’ve been saying for months. Will Andy Burnham gamble on an early GE? I think he will. Key reasons: - Labour in the lead: Critically, all signs point to Labour emerging as the largest party after a Burnham bounce. Labour need to capitalise on his popularity now or suffer a repeat of the Gordon Brown in 2010. - Economic shock coming: Energy price cap predicted to skyrocket this winter, plus oil and fertiliser shock coming pushing energy, food and petrol prices up, and an inflation shock. Seems v.foolish for Burnham to wait to become unpopular and face serving only 2 years in office. - Unite the soft-left? Natural coalition between Libs and Labour across the board, EU, social care, illegal migration, legal migration and taxation. Smaller parties always punished at future general elections, another win for Labour. - EU referendum: Labour and Lib Dems both desperate for this vote, Libs could make this a condition of coalition, Burnham would be quietly delighted as it would unite the left behind Labour and be at an opportune moment to win given global affairs. - Burnham mandate needed: to deliver defence increases, social care reform, income taxes must increase. Can’t wait until 2029. - The Right at war: Right is not going to unite. Tories unable to make significant gains in Lab and Lib seats. Restore vote is still diluted across the UK and can block reform in marginal seats. Reform suffering from donation scandals in the polls. - Far-left tactical vote: the far-left are very willing to hold their nose and vote to keep out Reform, bolstering Labour chance of beating reform in marginal seats. The lesson for the right? Continue to remain divided and you will lose Brexit, suffer higher income taxes and be locked out of power until 2031. That is, quite obviously, now the trajectory.