How is Bitcoin responding to the shift in equity market sentiment? What's happening with long-term holder positions, and is demand strong enough to absorb the supply? How durable is the current momentum and which on-chain signals will be the first to flag rising downside risk? Find the answers in the latest issue of Weekly Engine 117👇 substack.com/@adlerscryptoin…

What the market looks like right now 🐳

Short-term whales' paper profit fell from a record $9.8 billion to $4.6 billion over the past month. On the same day, October 20, whales sent 10.6K BTC to exchanges, nearly three times the usual amount. Profits are shrinking while more coins are landing on exchanges. What this means for the market and what to watch next, we break down in Morning Brief #283. axeladlerjr.com/whales-unrea…

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its long-term return forecasts for the first time: 10% annually over a 10-15-year horizon. For comparison: U.S. large-cap stocks - 7.5%, U.S. REITs - 8.2%, gold - 5.5%. BTC’s expected annualized volatility, however, is 55%. jpmorgan.com/global

Market context explained visually.

Bitcoin is correcting: down 6% from its early October high and just 1.5% above support. The price structure signal is now neutral and futures sellers have the upper hand. Where does a correction end and a deeper decline begin? I break it down in Morning Brief #282 👇 axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-in-a…

Bitcoin long-term holders have cut their holdings by 345K BTC since late July. In early October, they were spending coins almost every day, but the pace has slowed. What this means for Bitcoin supply and which signal to watch next - in the new Morning Brief 281👇 axeladlerjr.com/long-term-ho…

Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for the second consecutive week. Net flows over the past 30 days remain positive at +15.4K BTC, but inflows are shrinking, pointing to weakening demand. That said, weekly net outflows have eased to 2.8K BTC. axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitco…

Over the past week, the stock market Fear & Greed Index fell from 46 to 18, entering extreme fear territory. The Nasdaq sentiment score dropped from 77 to 53, moving from extreme greed to neutral. Both readings are at 30-day lows.

Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index fell from 61 to 53 over the past week, returning to neutral territory. This is its lowest reading in the past 30 days. Optimism is fading, but sentiment remains neutral.

The VIX jumped 21.45% on Friday to close at 19.99, after reaching an intraday high of 22.31. The options market is pricing in larger swings in the S&P 500. Next week could be a very challenging one.

October ranks first among all months for Bitcoin’s median return at +12.61% over 2010-2025. For comparison, February returned a median of +12.19%, July +9.02% and November +8.53%. Over those 16 years, Bitcoin finished October higher 11 times, or 69% of the time. The average return was +26.43%.

Saturday morning: coffee, a croissant and another $10K call from McGlone. Mike needs a vacation.

Stocks and BTC fell yesterday amid renewed concerns about AI. CoreWeave rents out computing capacity powered by Nvidia chips to clients including Microsoft, OpenAI, and Meta, and relies heavily on debt to fund its expansion. Investors are concerned about whether revenue from AI infrastructure will grow fast enough to cover debt servicing costs. The company’s 5Y CDS spread, which reflects the cost of protection against default, reached a record 1,194.5 basis points. U.S. investors bought the dip: the S&P 500 gained 0.3%, the Nasdaq was nearly unchanged and the Dow rose 1.1%. BTC also recovered its losses.

Infographic on current market conditions

Short-term holders added 422K BTC and now hold 4.08M BTC - the highest since mid-June. New buyers are entering the market. Where is their line between profit and loss? Breaking it down in Morning Brief 280 👇 axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-hold…

Bitcoin is moving more closely in sync with stocks. In Market State Report #5, I examine what this means for BTC, how strong its trend is, and whether the bullish regime remains intact after yesterday’s pullback. substack.com/@adlerscryptoin…

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak tomorrow at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok. He will take part in a discussion with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Bitcoin slipped after the US inflation data, while futures open interest rose over the past 24 hours. Longs are still paying shorts. Here's what it means for the market.👇 axeladlerjr.com/inflation-ac…

Goldman Sachs’ earnings report yesterday beat expectations: EPS came in at $17.01, revenue at $18.68 billion and net income rose 29% year over year. Earnings growth is supporting the market beyond the AI sector. The S&P 500’s forward P/E shows how many times the current value of the companies in the index exceeds their expected earnings over the next 12 months. It is now below 19, at its lowest since 2023 and slightly below its 10 year average. The index is near all-time highs, but expected earnings are growing faster than stock prices, bringing the P/E down. Essentially, stocks are cheap relative to expected earnings and the same can be said of Bitcoin.