NOVAwx retweeted
Model guidance did a great job nailing this cold front that just swept through well over a week ago. But they wanted this cool down to only last a few days then warm up quick again. That no longer looks to be the case. Cooler than average air will now stick around (mainly East of the Apps) for the next week!
This has turned into a long duration cool down!
NOVAwx retweeted
The latest Euro weeklies run with the troughiness over the western US slowly pushing westward into the pacific makes sense to me. This would allow a more poleward flow at times into CONUS, increasing the chances for cold air intrusions for mid-late November. For now the cold likely stays bottled up through early November. A more typical, strong +ENSO pattern is beginning to take shape come November into December.
For snow lovers across the Mid-Atlantic & Northeast, this will be a high boom/bust winter which will all be determined from Jan 15-Feb 15th. I'll have my full synopsis in my winter forecast on Sunday, November 1st.
#EcWx #MdWx
NOVAwx retweeted
TONIGHT: Frost advisory and freeze warning issued for western parts of the area -- runs 1a-9a Sunday. 🥶
Coldest air of the season so far, mainly clear skies, and weakening winds. Temps range across 30s most spots, close to freezing some western suburbs: capitalweather.com/frost-adv…
NOVAwx retweeted
Will need to keep a close eye on another potential strong coastal system which is expected to develop this weekend & slowly drift northwest through the upcoming week. Strong onshore flow will lead to additional beach erosion & coastal flooding. Rain amounts will depend on exact track of storm. Euro AIFS continues to bump NW on rainfall for late week. #EcWx
Surprised Blacksburg isn’t under a freeze watch yet
Make sure to cover sensitive plants Saturday night and Sunday night
NOVAwx retweeted
Hybrid Howler still possible next week. 👇 This is likely a preview as to how the winter will go! Plenty of coastal storms. Just like with the last Nor'Easter, it is difficult to give details this far in advance. All we can say right now is that a storm is probably going to develop near the Mid Atlantic/SE Coast sometime early next week. Stay tuned...
NOVAwx retweeted
Just in: El Nino looms large over U.S. Winter Outlook
Expected impacts include warmer North, wetter South and East
--> News release + map images at noaa.gov/news-release/el-nin…
Via @NWS @NWSCPC
#WinterOutlook #ElNino
NOVAwx retweeted
We are still looking at the potential for a strong low pressure developing off the East coast next week. The beginning stages would begin this weekend. There is still big model disagreement.
NOVAwx retweeted
The Hurricane Hunters have found #SIMON has remained steady in intensity. If anything, the pressure is slightly up from the NHC’s previous advisory of 928 mb.
And satellite imagery does reflect a plateau/slight weakening in intensity with a continued cloud-filled eye, shrinking CDO, and cloud tops warming a bit. Regardless, SIMON should only weaken from here as it approaches the coastline of Jalisco, #Mexico.
One thing I would watch for is a track slightly farther west, potentially keeping the center offshore. Some models really lean on that western solution, keeping SIMON over warm water and potentially a problem farther north up the Mexican coastline.
NOVAwx retweeted
Short-range models catching on to the faster timing of Isaias, which made landfall a few hours earlier than previous runs suggested in the last couple of days. For DC, the faster timing means...
1) Some rain starts Saturday evening, from south-to-north. Rain may start between 7-10pm in DC proper.
2) Heaviest of the rains are overnight through Sunday morning. 1-3" of rain possible, higher amounts locally.
3) Breaks in the action Sunday afternoon. Would help the Commanders/Giants game in terms of it not being a deluge, but unlikely to be totally dry.
4) Some thunderstorms then possible Sunday afternoon & evening. Isolated tornadoes would be possible in the storms due to the extra low-level spin associated with the storm.
5) While not expected to lead to widespread damage, Sunday is still a breezy day...with winds gusting 30-40mph as the storm passes by.
6) Showers linger into Monday, before low exits to our northeast. Sun then returns into Monday afternoon.
NOVAwx retweeted
Sunday still the wet day here in the DC region as the remnants of hurricane Isaias will come our way.
Heavy rain is expected, especially during the front half of the day. 1-2", locally higher amounts are very possible as the storm moves through.
Latest is showing some breaks in the rain shield in the afternoon and evening, however, because the central low is drifting to the northeast, it then puts the DC region into the southeast quadrant of the low where you can get some severe thunderstorms, and the risk for isolated tornadoes because of it.
SPC added us to a marginal risk today because of this threat.
NOVAwx retweeted
Hurricane #Isaias is in the situation of many former Gulf TCs, where the same subtropical jet that is providing strong UL divergence, aiding in intensification, is also shearing it (though in this case, the jet is likely El Nino-enhanced). In the short term, the...(1/2)
NOVAwx retweeted
The first 2026 Atlantic Basin Hurricane is Isaias. The Google Deep Mind takes the storm close to Cat 3 (Major) before landfall Friday Night/Early Saturday. Still a good chance we get a soaking rain here in MD Sunday. It will NOT be a tropical storm when it reaches the Mid Atlantic. At this time, I think the chance for severe weather (tornadoes) is low in the Baltimore Metro. But that could change with shifts in track and speed. Stay tuned...
