@AvoryCo

Avory Foundational ETF $AVRY | Asset Manager | Investing Forward. | High conviction equity portfolios. Not investment advice.

 Miami, FL
linktr.ee/avoryco
Joined March 2015
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🔔 It was an honor to ring the bell as we continue building at Avory. This moment reflects more than a milestone, it’s a step forward in how we think about investing: focused, intentional, and built around investing forward. As markets evolve, so does the need for strategies grounded in clarity, discipline, and long-term thinking. Grateful for the opportunity, thankful for our partners, and even more excited for what’s ahead. $SPX $TLT
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The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient. - Warren Buffett
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Investing with Data 335 is out. CoreWeave thoughts, yields, sold Okta, new buys. investingwithdata.substack.c…

15 Charts: CoreWeave, Yields Drop, Okta Sold, New Buys.

Why we sold Okta, the everything else rally, and what the big banks are saying about the consumer.

investingwithdata.com
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Real-time rents take core CPI from 2.6% to 0.9% y/y. That is the number to watch. $TLT $USO $SPY
Avory chart: CPI and core CPI with shelter replaced by Apartment List market rents. September 2026 core 2.6% becomes 0.9% y/y.

ALT Avory chart: CPI and core CPI with shelter replaced by Apartment List market rents. September 2026 core 2.6% becomes 0.9% y/y.

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Energy now adds 1.3 pts of the 3.7% y/y CPI. Rate-sensitive sits at 2.6%. The impulse is energy. $TLT $USO $SPY
Avory chart: CPI year-over-year contributions by category over 24 months. September 2026 headline 3.7% with energy contributing 1.31 points.

ALT Avory chart: CPI year-over-year contributions by category over 24 months. September 2026 headline 3.7% with energy contributing 1.31 points.

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CPI report takeaways Sept CPI +0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y. Energy added about 39 of the 65 bps. Outside energy, inflation is tamed. Core on real-time rents runs 0.9% y/y. If energy holds here, base effects pull it lower. $TLT $USO $SPY
Avory chart: CPI energy components y/y since 2019 and headline m/m split into energy vs everything else. Gasoline +34.2% y/y.

ALT Avory chart: CPI energy components y/y since 2019 and headline m/m split into energy vs everything else. Gasoline +34.2% y/y.

Avory chart: CPI and core CPI with shelter replaced by Apartment List market rents. September 2026 core 2.6% becomes 0.9% y/y.

ALT Avory chart: CPI and core CPI with shelter replaced by Apartment List market rents. September 2026 core 2.6% becomes 0.9% y/y.

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Interesting data the team completed last week on diesel's implications for the economy. At 2025 volumes, $6.38 diesel for a full year is 1.19% of GDP. That is in line with 2022 and below 2008. Watching TLT and USO.
Bar chart of the diesel fuel bill as a percent of GDP. Historical years in white, three full-year price scenarios in green, dashed line at the 2022 actual share of 1.18 percent.

ALT Bar chart of the diesel fuel bill as a percent of GDP. Historical years in white, three full-year price scenarios in green, dashed line at the 2022 actual share of 1.18 percent.

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Success is never accidental. - Jack Dorsey
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Investing with Data 334 is out. Peaky yields? Peaky OpenAI revenue growth? investingwithdata.substack.c…

10 Charts: Peaky Yields? Peaky OpenAI Revenue Growth?

Big Picture

investingwithdata.com
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From the team this morning: ADP's weekly pulse shows private hiring averaging 23,750 jobs a week over the last four weeks, a fifth straight weekly increase. That's a monthly pace near 100,000 vs September's +46,000 private gain.
ADP NER Pulse weekly chart: four-week average of private payroll change with five straight weekly increases through week ending September 19, 2026

ALT ADP NER Pulse weekly chart: four-week average of private payroll change with five straight weekly increases through week ending September 19, 2026

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The mission of Palantir is to give an unfair advantage to our friends. - Alex Karp
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📩 Sunday read. Frontier model training cost: index of 1 in 2020, roughly 1,838 today. Building keeps getting more expensive. Intelligence keeps getting cheaper. investingwithdata.com/p/10-c… $NVDA $XYZ $CRM $PLTR

10 Charts: Revisiting The Economics of AI Models

Big Picture

investingwithdata.com
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Survey data on AI budget overruns: 48% of over-budget firms seek supplemental budget, 43% accept the overrun and reconcile later. 39% reallocate within IT. Just 17% pause or cut. AI gets funded, not cut.
Survey responses on actions taken when AI spend exceeds budget: 48% seek supplemental budget approval, 43% accept the overrun, 39% reallocate within IT, 17% pause or cut

ALT Survey responses on actions taken when AI spend exceeds budget: 48% seek supplemental budget approval, 43% accept the overrun, 39% reallocate within IT, 17% pause or cut

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📩 Fresh look at AI this week. What does the model layer look like as Anthropic and OpenAI eye public markets. Full cost stack breakdown: investingwithdata.com/p/10-c… $NVDA $XYZ $CRM $PLTR

10 Charts: Revisiting The Economics of AI Models

Big Picture

investingwithdata.com
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$XLY is 7% below its 200-day. Since late 2024, that gap has lined up with real turns in consumer discretionary. April 2025, early 2026 and this summer. A good place to look for a bounce.
XLY price vs its percent gap to the 200-day moving average, now 7% below.

ALT XLY price vs its percent gap to the 200-day moving average, now 7% below.

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Two of four NYSE breadth gauges are below 30. The other two are at 31% and 38%. A full 4 for 4 has historically lined up with $SPY lows, like 2022 and April 2025. We're getting close.
S&P 500 (SPY) vs percent of NYSE stocks above their 10, 20, 50 and 200-day averages. Two of four gauges below 30.

ALT S&P 500 (SPY) vs percent of NYSE stocks above their 10, 20, 50 and 200-day averages. Two of four gauges below 30.

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October rate hike odds: about 35% today. 51% yesterday. 71% a week ago. 18% a month ago. Expectations came down hard, but the volatility is the story.
Implied probability of a 25bp rate hike at the October 2026 FOMC meeting, falling from 71% to 35% over the past week

ALT Implied probability of a 25bp rate hike at the October 2026 FOMC meeting, falling from 71% to 35% over the past week

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Anthropic's IPO prospectus is out. Audited 2025: $4.6B revenue, $42B net loss. The run-rate ramp: about $1B entering 2025 to $65B by July. The ask: $2T+. The first GAAP look at a frontier AI lab.
Anthropic annualized run-rate revenue from $1B in December 2024 to $65B in July 2026

ALT Anthropic annualized run-rate revenue from $1B in December 2024 to $65B in July 2026

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AI is one of the most important things humanity is working on. It is more profound than electricity or fire. - Sundar Pichai
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📩 In case you missed it, Investing with Data is out. Rotation, cash on the sidelines, and Muse vs ChatGPT. Subscribe and follow for more. investingwithdata.com/p/11-c…

11 Charts: The Consumer AI Battle, Yields + Oil = Rotation?

Muse is #1 on both app stores, the rotation setup is building in the laggards, and a record $8.4 trillion sits in money funds.

investingwithdata.com
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📩 Investing with Data is out. Rotation, cash on the sidelines, and Muse vs ChatGPT. Subscribe and follow for more. investingwithdata.com/p/11-c…

11 Charts: The Consumer AI Battle, Yields + Oil = Rotation?

Muse is #1 on both app stores, the rotation setup is building in the laggards, and a record $8.4 trillion sits in money funds.

investingwithdata.com
79
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