Averagegeek retweeted
When I first started out, I watched the screen and traded every single second the market was open. There was absolutely zero control.
I felt like I had to be in everything, all at the same time. I was constantly running from one stock to another just because the new one looked a little better or was moving a little faster. It was pure exhaustion.
After a few years of getting chopped up, everything shifted:
Now, I trade less and watch more.
I can sit there and see 20 great ideas cross my desk, and I will only execute on 5 of them.
That is the simple math of a professional trader.
You do not need more trades to make more money. You need more patience, tighter execution, and the discipline to let good setups pass so you can load the boat on the elite ones.
Averagegeek retweeted
A Small Part of My Collection
The following posts are pretty Important Moments in the Path I am walking and I bet they can push you.
At the bottom you find a list with all Over the Shoulder Videos I made till today.
My Journey
How I did it. And why only one Asset - the DAX. This post contains a lot of Links. Used correctly will push you.
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1957…
The Reality of Trading
One of my toughest day. No Sugarcoating on my Page, even when I often post wins, every win I post comes with a Loss.
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1962…
Why I refuse to learn more TA
I wrote that at a time when many people jumped Edges. It's just my view. I stayed stubborn - worked.
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/2050…
The first 500 hours
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1939…
The Reward
My first Success, a cute small payout. Important are the 4 Steps. I guess everybody has own steps but probably similar.
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1891…
Consistency
How I maintain getting payouts and stay profitable in the game. It's obviously not linear. Outliers count way more than most people think.
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1919…
Be Careful Who You Listen To
Selfexplaining.
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1929…
---
Over the Shoulder Videos:
1. First one. DAX Closing the Bottom
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1968…
2. MES NY Session. 1 Win 1 Loss. Re entry explained.
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1969…
3. ETH short
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1969…
4. Dax long with full Plan & all thoughts
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1970…
5. USDCAD short. How I pulled 5k$ instead of round tripping
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1974…
6. DAX LTF. What to avoid. Top and Bottom Tick.
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1977…
7. 5k follower special. XAGUSD GBPUSD MNQ
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1981…
8. DAX. Why LTF doesn't need to be time consuming.
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1983…
9. Crypto. XPL and CLANKER
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1987…
10. DAX. Find. Wait. Ape. How I use my emotions to TP
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1988…
11. SOL MNQ DAX
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/1994…
12. How I pick Sh*tcoins. DAX plays and how I handle em.
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/2007…
13. Finding all Confluences on DAX. And how I manage it.
nitter.cf/Albert_618/status/2095…
Averagegeek retweeted
In my liquidity viewpoint,
This liquidity above the May highs is so unnecessary to take to just continue in a downtrend..
This is do or die for me..
If this pump was fake and we stay in a downtrend
This low 80 liquidity pocket needs to hold
BUT IF NOT
It’s game on for me
Averagegeek retweeted
Some free educational content of mine possibly lost in my feed and has become forgotten. There's hundreds all over my X account but here's just a few I was able to gather lately.
Breaker Blocks/HOBs - nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/1865…
Timing rationality - nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/1991…
Never feel sidelined -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/1921…
Dealing with market uncertainty -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/1958…
Stop Loss importance (SPOT) -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/2026…
Beginner confirmations (outdated but good) -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/1822…
Beginner risk management -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/1835…
Volume & Liquidity -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/1918…
Volatility & Range -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/1917…
Charts > News -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/1877…
Trade management example -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/1925…
Leave the herd -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/1810…
Knowing when to size -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/2019…
Confidence > Conceputal -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/2056…
Losing money -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/1977…
Trading advice -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/2010…
Good TA, but execution struggles -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/2046…
Less concepts the better -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/2049…
Key Liquidity Sweeps -
nitter.cf/TraderDune/status/1980…
(KLS): Key Liquidity Sweep 🧵
A concept I made combining @Moneytaur_ logic with smart money market structure principles. This specific educational piece is part of Dune Capital, but since there is no other resources, I'm deciding to publicize this section/concept for all to learn.
“Whales like to take profit, where they have taken profit before”
A Key Liquidity Sweep (KLS) occurs when price makes a sharp move to take out a significant high or low inside a mitigated key liquidity level, before reversing. These sweeps often mark the beginning of major reversals, particularly macro double tops and double bottoms. Unlike simple swing failure patterns (SFPs) from ICT concepts, which can sometimes be misleading if no real liquidity was taken, a true KLS requires that liquidity has actually been swept, meaning not retail stop orders, but institutional resting orders at that level that are unfilled.
SFPs, on the other hand, are often just temporary manipulations, quick stop hunts followed by a retrace back into a key level before the trend continues, not a reversal. SFPs mean nothing, if there is no liquidity to be swept. A KLS is not a trap, it’s a purposeful move, engineered by market makers to refill remaining orders left behind at the key swing point. The more powerful the liquidity level that gets taken (for example, a optimal reversal level), the more powerful the KLS is likely to be and occur. These are the moments when major trend reversals often begin, marking macro double tops and bottoms.
But identifying a true KLS goes beyond just spotting a reversal at a key level. The reversal must leave behind a structural footprint, either a break of structure (BOS) on the same timeframe, or at the very least, a meaningful market structure shift (MSS) on a slightly lower timeframe (ex: 12H BOS confirming a HTF reversal from that key liquidity level). Without that structural confirmation, what looks like a reversal may just be a temporary pullback before price continues in its original direction.
Also study how much liquidity was taken during the original test of the key level: zoom into lower timeframes to inspect candle bodies, did they close within confirming mitigation of the level? How deep into the level do body closes go? These determine how much liquidity was taken from the reversal & how much potential institutional orders are remaining at the swing. If little to no lower TF bodies confirm the level, or less than 35% of the key level was taken, it’s likely a re-test of the level and not a KLS. Remember, the liquidity is within the swing, as it took it from the liquidity level. If that is not the case and there is still liquidity left within the key level to be taken, market makers are likely sending price to re-test the liquidity level or much lower to create a fresh new range.
This is my own optimized version of ICT’s SFP I have created, after 3+ years of using this concept. A concept that forecasts future double bottoms and double tops before they occur, when identified correctly. Allowing you to buy/sell before powerful reversals.
Averagegeek retweeted
I went through the entire archive from the Artemis Il mission to create timelapses of many scenes experienced by the astronauts.
Many of these views are firsts of their kind.
While this was a ton of work, I see it as practice, as one day I plan on capturing these images myself.
Averagegeek retweeted
Another little educational post:
✔️The Power of Simplicity: Why Your Chart Needs Less, Not More :
I get asked all the time about my charts and how I arrive at those clean, one-line price POIs. It’s a massive subject I’ll dig into properly one day, but for now let’s talk about the absolute fundamentals – your chart itself.
I’ve seen some truly dreadful charts over the years. Not just from traders who are just starting out (that’s completely understandable – I was once glued to RSI and EMAs myself, hunting for that mythical magic indicator that would somehow unlock the markets). What really grinds my gears is when the self-proclaimed “coaches” charging thousands of $ still present charts so cluttered you can barely make out the price. They’re plastered with cycle nonsense, Fibonacci levels, EMAs of every period under the sun, and every other indicator imaginable. The actual information you need is buried under a visual mess.
👉What you actually need is a clean understanding of something as simple as candlesticks and the context behind them. Nothing more.
That’s why my charts have stayed simple white and grey for years. I’ve been trading trading for a year and a half now. Before that it was all spot gambling – the stuff we all go through. As soon as I got to a decent level, I changed everything on my chart and that helped me massively to just focus on PA itself.
First off, I properly hate colour for the sake of it. Second – and far more importantly – it gives real clarity. You can see PA in all its glory without some external indicator interfering or distracting the eye. When the chart is stripped back, the market’s story becomes obvious: the reaction points, the imbalances, the pure structure. No noise, no clutter, just the raw language of price.
☑️A clean chart forces you to focus on what actually matters. It removes the temptation to over-complicate, stops analysis paralysis in its tracks, and builds genuine confidence in reading the tape rather than relying on lagging tools. The best traders I know keep their screens ruthlessly simple for exactly this reason. Complexity is often just a comfort blanket for uncertainty. Clarity, on the other hand, is power.
Keep it clean. Let the price speak for itself.
Have a great weekend, lads.
Averagegeek retweeted
Risk assets are f*cked if this holds. 😬
US30Y may have confirmed a multi-year ascending triangle with last week's close.
You can even see how it held on the 4h chart on Friday.
If it holds next week, a sprint to 6.55% could be underway into Q4. That'd be a 27% increase in 30-year yields.
That further tightens financial conditions, pressures risk assets, hammers risk-sensitive sectors, and makes managing the United States' $39 trillion debt MUCH harder.
Now go check the S&P and Nasdaq charts I posted earlier on Friday.
Coincidence?
Probably not.
This could break the whole damn thing. 👀
The US 30-year yield is once again retesting the top of a 3.5-year ascending triangle.
Break it, and the objective is 6.56%.
Charts like this get little attention, and that’s a mistake. It’s charts like this that have led me to tell you guys repeatedly to stop expecting $BTC to do the same thing every 4 years.
Expecting the same 4-year cycles while the macro backdrop is changing this dramatically makes zero sense.
A sustained breakout in long-term yields would tighten financial conditions, pressure risk assets, hammer rate-sensitive sectors, and make an already ugly debt situation even harder to manage.
That doesn’t mean everything collapses tomorrow.
But it does mean blindly expecting another copy-and-paste Bitcoin cycle because “the halving” is getting more dangerous by the day.
$BTC $ETH
Averagegeek retweeted
Healthy grocery shopping:
$100 > "Too expensive!"
Dinner date:
$100 > "Reasonable"
3 books on business, mindset, and investing:
$100 > "Books?! Crazy talk!"
Night out drinking:
$100 (Weekly occurrence)
Personal growth seminar:
$250 > "Can't afford that!"
Gucci belt:
$250 > "Need to have it!"
Trial/error on new income stream:
$1,000 > "Can't justify that!"
iPhone 15:
$1,000 > "The newest model is a must have!"
60min @ the gym:
"I wish i had time..."
60min watching Netflix:
"Time flies! Watch another one!"
Everything in life is about priorities, and what you prioritize will dictate how your life looks like.
Averagegeek retweeted
Sometimes reality writes symbolism so absurd that fiction would be accused of trying too hard.
19 years ago, Messi was photographed bathing baby Lamine Yamal during a charity calendar shoot.
At the time, Messi wore number 19 for Argentina.
Now Lamine walks into a World Cup final against Messi at 19 years old, wearing number 19 for Spain.
The World Cup final is played on the 19th of this month.
Messi's birthday is June 24. Lamine's is July 13. These dates are 19 days apart.
If you look closer, it can get stranger.
Lionel Andrés Messi.
Take the first letter of each name: LAM
Take the second letter of each name: INE
This is the kind of full-circle football mythology you cannot manufacture.
Averagegeek retweeted
Imagine assuming bitcoin:native will do what it's always done despite a massive shift in the macro regime starting in 2020.
Bitcoin has never existed in a structurally rising-yield environment.
Every previous cycle played out during a decades-long decline in interest rates.
This time actually IS different because the backdrop is different.
#Bitcoin $US10Y
My mate @dragoncap_au is putting in insane work for the community. As far as I know everything is (and will stay) free.
He has made some amazing free tools to improve your analysis, make the process quicker and stay up to date with new setups.
Make sure to check his stuff out sometime!
One of the most powerful parts of the Dragon Cap dashboard will be the ability to pre-plan trades, rather than react late.
The dashboard will rank upcoming levels from A+ down to C/D, with the strongest setups pushed to the top.
The highest-ranked levels will be based on:
• Higher timeframe HOB/pBB levels
• Fib confluence
• x2 / x3 conviction
• Clustered levels
• Distance from price (default within 5%)
• Macro backdrop
• Directional bias
So instead of chasing random alerts, we’ll be able to see the best upcoming reaction zones before price gets there.
The macro layer is just as important.
If the broader backdrop is risk-off, the dashboard may favour shorts and suppress weaker longs.
If lower timeframes start shifting, it can still flag possible scalp-long conditions, but with the context that we shouldn’t be going too heavy against the higher-timeframe macro.
That’s the key:
Better planning.
Better context.
Better filtering.
Less noise.
The aim isn’t to replace charting.
It’s to give us a faster read on where the best opportunities are forming and what side of the market we should be more careful with.
Beta coming out today in the discord. .
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Altcoins #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis
Averagegeek retweeted
It took 3 months for the main idea mentioned in the video to play out.
As you can see, the inflection point we had identified between the high $70Ks and low $80Ks led to a redistribution phase that took very little time to unfold.
This is largely in line with what we had been saying all along, as well as with the idea that at least the $60K range would be the minimum downside target.
It’s always very complicated from a mental perspective to stay “loyal” to your plan as long as it’s being respected, especially during retracements to the upside that seem to scream “this time is different”.
However, the macro targets remain the ones I mentioned in the video linked on my account.
When I intend to start accumulating BTC again, I will say so publicly, but in my opinion, it is not the right time yet.
Averagegeek retweeted
This is not a victory lap repost. This is something you should study.
Study how liquidity is engineered and what a liquidity trail is so you stop being a victim.
Bottoms create imbalances not liquidity trails.
Averagegeek retweeted
The scenario I had originally anticipated for $BTC (on this move) has already been invalidated and I think I can share a big lesson here with you.
As you know, I've been bearish on Bitcoin since a while seeing this macro move nothing but an HTF retracement to the upside, in a context of a "dead cat bounce".
Following this idea and the inital one on USDT/USDC, I did take a short position from the POC (chart on the left) targeting 72K.
However, it's also true that, according to the thesis I had laid out, I was planning to go long from the 70–72K zone because it represented a demand area, so it made sense from a technical standpoint.
In the end, I took a loss and got stopped out.
One mistake I occasionally make is allowing my broader long-term bias to influence my decisions.
Even so, I often try to capture these counter-trend moves in an attempt to optimize my performance but in this case, that optimization simply didn't exist.
I should have respected the HTF and the long-term view instead of taking that additional risk, even though it was very small (I risked only 1–1.5%) as I always do.
There was no real reason to take that trade.
I should have simply stuck with the short position, which was my primary thesis.
This is a major lesson.
Sometimes the desire to catch this move or that move just doesn't make any sense. It literally doesn't make any sense. You simply need to have a plan, execute one setup, and that's it.
And if there's a lesson here for anyone watching, it's that discipline will always outperform the need to be involved in every move.
The market will give you endless opportunities, but your job as a trader is not to catch them all, it's to execute your edge consistently.
Missing a trade is rarely what hurts your performance, abandoning your plan usually is.
The best traders aren't the ones who take every opportunity, they're the ones who stay aligned with their process, even when the temptation to do otherwise is strong.
So yes, I took a loss. It doesn't affect my broader long-term plan at all, but it was definitely something I could have avoided.
As a result, I had to restructure the plan and continue following the original thesis, which was to see Bitcoin revisit at least the lows around 60K.
Food for thought, I guess.
Let's make a proper update on USDT/USDC D. for understanding the situation tied to $BTC.
During the last post we were seeing a bounce from the key zone going for the supply and stating the importance of not closing above the 10.74% in order to not shift the MSS to bearish.
So far, this didn't happen and we're now seeing a further aggression into the 3D supply which alone wouldn't mean a lot (in a clean HTF trend) but considering the several confluences that have been given (T1+BTC key zone).
Now what I'm potentially seeing developed, is an HTF Wolfe Wave.
0 -> 1 -> 2 -> 3 -> 4 -> 5?
The 5th move is missing and this is what I would like to see in a context in which we extend the local bullishness for an HTF distributive pattern on $BTC, hitting 80K as first area and $82.800+.
Specifically, after the potential tap of the 9.70/9.40% (fully mitigating the zone), it would be important to track the ROV phase that, if confirmed, would likely open the doors for the EPA one and potentially more.
Personally, for my preference, I would like to see another aggression to the upside on USDT/USDC deviating above the 28th May high, completely tapping the BTC key zone (-1/1.20% more or less) before the impulse, but this is not a key requirement considering the confluences that hit simultaneously.
The invalidation here is pretty much clean, with consistent closures above 11.20% that would lilkely imply a test of the 70K (0 point) and even lower, if broken.
Averagegeek retweeted
$BTC another Bearish PO3? ...
Let's see if Bulls hold this zone into the time cycle low
Some alts also have a low due around 6th June, others point to a more significant low around 20-26th June
Commonality says caution into c. mid July.