@AttackerSuccess
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ℕ𝕦𝕝𝕝 𝕊𝕡𝕒𝕔𝕖
Joined June 2013
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Here are a few facts about bitcoin, digital currencies, and blockchain:
Bitcoin is the first decentralized digital currency, created in 2009.
As of February 4, 2023, the market capitalization of Bitcoin is around $932 billion.
...
I just reserved my Cloudflare Wallet tag: nar.cloudflare.pay.
Reserve yours now at cloudflare.pay
Overrated article
JUNE 2028.
The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation.
What happened?
citriniresearch.com/p/2028gi…
No one is saying SaaS is dead overnight — we're not that naive.
But the **paradigm has fundamentally shifted**, and downplaying it in February 2026 is no longer just optimism; it's becoming a liability.
Here's the picture we're seeing right now:
- Code creation cost and time have collapsed dramatically. What used to take teams months now happens in days or even hours with tools like Claude, Cursor, agentic workflows, etc.
- New players launch "vibe + weekend MVP" style products at a pace that used to require 6–12 months and serious funding.
- Most legacy SaaS still leans heavily on classic moats (network effects, switching costs, proprietary data, brand) — but in an agentic world, many of those erode fast when AI agents prioritize reliability, deep integrations, and outcomes over shiny UIs or locked-in data.
- The bloodbath is clearest among those who said "our moat is unbreakable" and didn't move: public SaaS multiples have compressed hard, software stocks shed over $1T in value this year alone, NRR averages drifting down (110–114% range for many, top quartile still 120%+ but under pressure), Rule of 40 scores getting squeezed in the middle tier as growth slows to low double digits while AI eats budget share.
Finbarr's piece makes solid points — enterprise still demands accountability, compliance, proven integrations, and trust that raw "vibe-coded" alternatives rarely deliver at scale. Salesforce (and a few others) prove incumbents can adapt and hold ground.
But that 2024/early-2025 tone of "the hysteria is overblown" feels increasingly dated against 2026 reality:
- AI budgets exploding (100%+ YoY in many orgs) while total IT spend grows only ~8% → pure reallocation pain.
- Seat-based pricing collapsing: per-seat dropped sharply, hybrid/usage/outcome models surging (Gartner saying 40%+ of enterprise SaaS shifting toward usage/agent/outcome-based by now or soon).
- AI agents aren't just assistants anymore — they're starting to own end-to-end workflows, reducing human headcount (and thus seats) while pressuring vendors to charge for results (meetings booked, tickets resolved, revenue impact) instead of access.
- Vertical SaaS especially feeling heat as foundation model players roll out HIPAA-compliant agents and industry-specific tools that compete head-on.
SaaS isn't dying.
**SaaS 1.0** (seat-based, feature-heavy, human-in-the-loop) is in serious decline for a large chunk of the market.
The next 3–5 years will be brutal for anyone slow to adapt — we're already seeing outcome-as-a-service thinking, agent-first architecture, and value/outcome pricing take over conversations.
Bottom line in 2026:
Adaptation speed > everything else right now.
Underestimate the shift at your peril.
In 2020, while everyone was screaming ‘rates will go negative!’, Buffett quietly stepped in, bought back Berkshire stock, started to dump the rest! And watched the 30-year bond downtrend snap like a twig.
But hey, keep fighting the Fed, I’m sure it’ll work this time.
📉📈👴
#US30Y #Macro #Buffett #BondYields #stocks
FED, Dünyayı Yanmaya Mı Bırakacak?
2025 Nisan itibariyle, piyasalarda "bir şeylerin kırıldığına" dair sinyaller göz göre göre geliyor.
MOVE Endeksi (tahvil volatilitesi) artıyor.
HY-UST spread genişliyor.
Swap spread'leri 2022'den beri negatifte sürünüyor.
30Y US Treasury yield %5'e dayandı.
Bu tabloyu daha önce sadece 2008 ve 2020'de görmüştük.
Swap spread'lerin negatifte kalması, piyasanın sistemsel riski fiyatladığını, swap tarafında karşı taraf riskinin arttığını gösteriyor. Bu sağlıklı bir durum değil. Swap doğası gereği riskli olduğu için her zaman Treasury'den daha yüksek fiyatlanması beklenir. Ama şu an tersi yaşanıyor.
Bu noktada soru şu: FED faiz indirerek mi müdahale edecek, yoksa "düzgün enflasyon verisi gelene kadar" seyirci mi kalacak?
Eğer FED faiz indirirse:
Treasury yield düşer.
Swap rate düşer.
Spread toparlanabilir.
Risk iştahı artar, piyasa nefes alır.
Ama indirirse enflasyon geri tepebilir. Bu da uzun vadede daha büyük bir şok anlamına gelir.
İndirmezse?
Swap spread daha da negatife gidebilir.
Likidite kilitlenebilir.
SVB tipi daha fazla olay zincirleme tetiklenebilir.
⚡ Şu an FED "bekle-gör" modunda. Ama bu strateji artık piyasada karşılığını yitiriyor.
Bana göre: FED şu an sistemsel kırılmaya göz göre göre ilerliyor. Tıpkı 2007 sonundaki gibi.
Yani sözün özü:
"Ya şimdi yanacak, ya da birazdan. Ama alev geliyor."
Grafikler:
30Y Treasury yield %5'e dayandı: Swap fiyatlamasını artık bastıramıyor.
Swap spread'ler -0.25 baz puan civarında: Sistem 'riskteyim' diye bağırıyor.
FED'in bu tabloya vereceği ilk tepki, 2025'in gidişatını belirleyecek.
Endekslerdeki kayıp sadece fiyat düzeltmesi mi, yoksa daha başka(örneğin finansal) bir kırılmanın eşiğinde mi dikiliyoruz sorusunun cevabını aramak için şu veriler önemli ;
* MOVE endeksi (tahvil volatilitesi yükseliyor)
* HY - UST spread (genişliyor)
* Swap spread’leri (negatif bölgede genişliyor, dün zerohedge dikkat çekmişti)
Bu senkronizasyonu en son 2008 ve 2020'de gördük.
Şu saatlerde stres katlanıyor lakin “FED yetişir” umudu henüz dağılmış da değil.
🔥 Midjourney V7 is here!
Sharper, more realistic, and creatively insane.
Takes prompting to a whole new level.
Been playing with it all day — here are some wild results 👇
#midjourney #aiart #generativeart #v7
100 days ago, I shared a BIST100 analysis that nailed it perfectly—it’s up about 14% since. Stay tuned—I’ll drop the next reversal signal right here when the time comes! #BIST100 #MarketWatch
Huge!
Everything you love about generative models — now powered by real physics!
Announcing the Genesis project — after a 24-month large-scale research collaboration involving over 20 research labs — a generative physics engine able to generate 4D dynamical worlds powered by a physics simulation platform designed for general-purpose robotics and physical AI applications.
Genesis's physics engine is developed in pure Python, while being 10-80x faster than existing GPU-accelerated stacks like Isaac Gym and MJX. It delivers a simulation speed ~430,000 faster than in real-time, and takes only 26 seconds to train a robotic locomotion policy transferrable to the real world on a single RTX4090 (see tutorial: genesis-world.readthedocs.io…).
The Genesis physics engine and simulation platform is fully open source at github.com/Genesis-Embodied-…. We'll gradually roll out access to our generative framework in the near future.
Genesis implements a unified simulation framework all from scratch, integrating a wide spectrum of state-of-the-art physics solvers, allowing simulation of the whole physical world in a virtual realm with the highest realism.
We aim to build a universal data engine that leverages an upper-level generative framework to autonomously create physical worlds, together with various modes of data, including environments, camera motions, robotic task proposals, reward functions, robot policies, character motions, fully interactive 3D scenes, open-world articulated assets, and more, aiming towards fully automated data generation for robotics, physical AI and other applications.
Open Source Code: github.com/Genesis-Embodied-…
Project webpage: genesis-embodied-ai.github.i…
Documentation: genesis-world.readthedocs.io…
1/n
GM
Just tested SORA AI vs. KLING AI 1.5 using the same gritty motorcycle gang prompt. In comparison, SORA’s physics felt off and visually weaker, while KLING’s 720p delivery nailed that rugged Midwest vibe. For cartoons/animation, SORA’s not bad, but it struggles with real-life scenes imo. #AI #VideoGen #Sora
prompt: A gritty motorcycle gang speeding through a desolate industrial town leather jackets and smoke a sense of brotherhood and rebellion cinematic and rugged midwestern Americana vibes.
"Testing some fun video ideas with Sora! 🚀 Just experimenting, let me know what you think! More to come!🎥✨ #AI #Creativity"
Turn up the volume.
🎧 Available now on Suno.
#NewMusic #suno #MusicLovers #NowPlaying #ShareTheVibe
suno.com/song/0f84700c-5e5c-…
