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$USDJPY is trading at a critical technical juncture, falling towards the 156.25 region during Friday's Asian session as stronger Japanese inflation, declining US Treasury yields, and renewed safe-haven demand weigh on the pair.
Japan's September core $CPI accelerated to 2.1% YoY, returning above the Bank of Japan's 2% target and reinforcing expectations that the central bank could raise interest rates again in December.
3 triggers to watch for the next big move:
π US Treasury Yields: Further declines in US yields could narrow the USβJapan interest-rate differential, strengthening the yen and weighing on $USDJPY.
ποΈ Bank of Japan Policy Outlook: Investors will monitor the BoJ's 30 October policy decision and economic projections for indications of a potential December rate hike.
π€ Global Risk Sentiment: Flash manufacturing and services $PMI readings could sway Fed expectationsβstronger data may boost the dollar, while weaker figures could add downward pressure to $USDJPY.
Check out the πππ«π€ππ ππ§ππ©π¬π‘π¨π β ππ ππππ¨πππ«
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Global markets were extremely volatile in trading yesterday; U.S. tech stocks took a big hit, with the $NASDAQ experiencing its biggest daily drop since June as AI fears again hit sentiment. Those fears hit the bond market, with yields tumbling the benchmark 10-year seeing its biggest one day fall in over 3 years.
Currency markets were also volatile, although, the $DXY drifting lower on the day, not telling the whole story.
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$Oil surged higher again to hit 5-month highs as fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia increased supply concerns, while $XAUUSD crashed lower though support levels to hit levels not seen since early August.
π‘There is a raft of PMI numbers due out today across several jurisdictions, however, traders are expecting ongoing geopolitical updates to supersede fundamentals as we progress through the trading day.
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Global markets were extremely volatile in trading yesterday; U.S. tech stocks took a big hit, with the $NASDAQ experiencing its biggest daily drop since June as AI fears again hit sentiment. Those fears hit the bond market, with yields tumbling the benchmark 10-year seeing its biggest one day fall in over 3 years.
Currency markets were also volatile, although, the $DXY drifting lower on the day, not telling the whole story.
ππ’π₯, ππ¨π₯π
$Oil surged higher again to hit 5-month highs as fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia increased supply concerns, while $XAUUSD crashed lower though support levels to hit levels not seen since early August.
π‘There is a raft of PMI numbers due out today across several jurisdictions, however, traders are expecting ongoing geopolitical updates to supersede fundamentals as we progress through the trading day.
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U.S. stock markets pushed higher in trading yesterday ahead of key earnings updates from $Tesla and $Meta. Both reported after the bell, with Tesla beating estimates and Meta confirming increased AI spending. Treasury yields edged higher during the session while the dollar closed close to flat.
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$Oil prices had a rare quiet day as investors awaited the next developments in the Middle East, with many hoping for positive news on a potential peace deal, while $XAUUSD pushed slightly higher off support levels.
π‘The macroeconomic calendar is relatively quiet today, and so traders are again expecting geopolitical factors to remain the main driver for fresh moves.
$TSLA is trading at a critical juncture as prices consolidate near the $375 pivot level ahead of the upcoming third-quarter financial results.
With revenue expectations largely unchanged and a heightened focus on AI and robotaxi expenditures, the earnings reaction is likely to be driven primarily by margin resilience and free cash flow developments, as opposed to headline delivery figures.
3 triggers to watch for the next big move:
π Operating & Automotive Margins: Ongoing assessment of whether core gross margins are able to stabilize following recent compression.
ποΈ Free Cash Flow & Capex Guidance: Updates regarding cash flow management and the trajectory of multi-billion dollar investments in AI and robotaxi infrastructure.
π€ AI & Robotaxi Outlook: Management insights on unsupervised FSD development milestones, regulatory challenges, and anticipated unit economics.
Ready for the full breakdown?
πΊ Watch Tesla's full earnings preview and in-depth market analysis by Gonzalo Canete, Global Chief Market Strategist here: youtube.com/watch?v=kjL5tYVKβ¦
π $SPCX Q3 Earnings Breakdown: Massive beats across the board!
β’ Revenue: $14.58B (vs $12.72B expected)
β’ EPS: $0.35 (vs $0.13 expected)
$SPCX reported an impressive 161% revenue growth for the third quarter, fueled by the rapid expansion of its artificial intelligence division and ongoing strength within its Starlink connectivity and satellite internet segment.
Additionally, the company highlighted a surge in Starlink subscribers to 13.6 million, alongside strong momentum in its AI business and an announcement that special committees have been established by the boards of both $SPCX and $TSLA to evaluate a potential merger.
π Follow @ATFXglobal for more earnings update!
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U.S. stocks experienced another mixed trading day yesterday as the $Dow drove higher, while tech held back. Treasury yields were also mixed again across the curve, while the dollar dropped further into recent ranges against the majors.
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$Oil markets were extremely volatile again, seeing a surge to a fresh multi-month high as hostilities again increased in the Middle East, before crashing hard later in the day as news of a potential peace deal hit the newswires. $Gold ultimately dropped on the day after another whippy session, still trading just above support levels.
π‘Geopolitics looks set to dominate market moves again, with the focus well and truly on the Middle East and the potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, while the UK is again in focus on the fundamental front with key data due out ahead of an update from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.
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U.S. tech stocks rebounded in trading yesterday as fears for the AI sector pulled back and investors sought value ahead of key earnings reports. Treasury yields also pushed back higher after last weekβs losses, as did the dollar against the majors.
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$Oil prices remained high as traders monitored continued hostilities in the Middle East, with the death toll increasing again yesterday. $XAUUSD meanwhile drifted lower in line with the stronger greenback.
π‘The macroeconomic calendar picks up again today, with rate data due out of China and the first of several key updates are released out of the UK.
π
Earnings Calendar of the week
Volatility could be on the menu as tech and payments heavyweights report this week. Which one are you watching?
Tues: $SPCX , $NFLX
Wed: $META , $TSLA
Friday: $AXP
Beat or miss? Drop your guess in the comments.
π Follow @ATFXglobal for the latest earnings insights.
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U.S. stocks took a hit on Friday as investors again hit tech stocks ahead of the key Q3 earnings season. Treasury yields were mixed again after last weekβs higher inflation prints, while the dollar also fell against the majors.
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Oil prices rallied strongly as traders factored in increased hostilities across the Middle East as well as the deteriorating relationship between the U.S. and Ukraine, while gold, for a change, was relatively quiet, trading at the top end of recent ranges.
π‘Further developments on the geopolitical front are likely to see oil remain in focus for traders today, while there are also some key data updates due out of China and Canada as the trading day progresses.
π The Regional Finals Have Begun!
A huge congratulations to all the traders who made it through Stage 2 of the ATFX World Trading Cup! π
Stage 2 competition heats up from now until 13 November, as traders go head-to-head for regional glory, a share of the USD 210,000 cash pool, and a chance to battle it out at the World Trading Cup Finals in Hong Kong. ππ°
Five regions. One crown. Who will rise to the top?
Follow the competition and see who's leading the race: bit.ly/4yqJI6B
$ATFX $ATFXWorldTradingCup
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It was a mixed day for U.S. markets yesterday. Stocks pushed higher in trading, with the $Dow leading the way, whilst tech sectors struggled to make much ground.
Treasury yields fell sharply to trade back at levels not seen since early September despite higher-than-expected PPI and Retail Sales numbers as traders pulled back bets of a rate hike this month. The $DXY also lost ground in line with the weaker yields, dropping 0.5% on the index.
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Oil markets saw a divergence between the major contracts as $WTI rallied strongly after U.S. crude stocks fell hard while $BRENT drifted lower. $Gold rallied off support levels on the back of the weaker dollar.
π‘Itβs a quieter day on the event calendar today, with little in the way of major data updates to move the market, however, we do hear from some major central bankers, including Fed Chair Kevin Warsh during the Asian session, which could add some volatility to the day.
$Gold is currently consolidating near a pivotal short-term inflection point around $4,162, balancing recent gains driven by declining U.S. Treasury yields against shifting monetary policy expectations.
With the precious metal trading within a defined technical range, market participants are closely monitoring upcoming macroeconomic data to determine the next directional breakout.
3 triggers to watch for the next big move:
π U.S. $PPI & Retail Sales Data: The outcome of upcoming wholesale inflation figures and consumer resilience data will be key in driving broader $USD and Treasury yield flows.
π U.S. Treasury Yields & $USD Strength: Persistent movement in bond yields and dollar strength threatens to cap gold's upside, raising the prospect of tighter monetary policy pricing.
ποΈ $FederalReserve Policy Trajectory: Market expectations regarding interest rate paths remain pivotal; higher borrowing costs diminish gold's appeal, while stabilizing yields offer support.
Will U.S. $PPI today stir up the Fed's plan in October?
The rate hike hopes are brewing after yesterday's hot CPI. The producer prices on 15 October 3:30PM (GMT+3) could lift the hike expectations or leave some breathing room for the Fed.
πForecast:
Headline PPI: 0.6% MoM (Previous: 0.4%)
Core PPI: 0.3% MoM (Previous: 0.2%)
Will the PPI data go stronger or weaker? Comment your thoughts belowβ¬οΈ
