铠甲勇士 retweeted
YARDENI: “.. We hate to spoil the party for the diehard hard-landers, but we won't be joining them ... We blame much of the weakness on the weather ... 1.54 million workers were either not working or only part time due to weather, far above the historical average."
@yardeni #NFP 🇺🇸
@dailychartbook
铠甲勇士 retweeted
The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator triggered in July; Fed Chair Powell said it's not an economic rule, but a statistical regularity. In any event, here we are.
铠甲勇士 retweeted
The Sahm Rule triggered the recession call today. The chart here shows that the +80 bp jump in the jobless rate over the past year is a 100% iron clad indicator that the downturn has either arrived or about to. The Fed is as behind the economic curve now as it was behind the inflation curve back in 2021-2022. Most of this tightening phase and cyclical bear market in bonds is set to unwind in dramatic fashion.
铠甲勇士 retweeted
BREAKING: The 10-Year Note Yield crashes over 15 basis points after a much weaker than expected July jobs report.
The 10-year note yield yield is now down 55 BASIS POINTS in ONE WEEK.
For the first time since March 2020, bond markets are pricing-in a potential recession.
铠甲勇士 retweeted
BREAKING: US job openings declined to 8.18 million in June, down from 8.23 million in May, near their lowest level since 2021.
Year-over-year, job openings fell 10.3%, marking the 23rd consecutive monthly decrease, the longest streak since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
The ratio of vacancies per unemployed worker, a metric the Fed follows closely, fell to 1.20, the lowest since June 2021.
At the same time, the private sector hiring rate declined to 3.7%, the lowest level since April 2020.
The private quits rate, measuring the number of people who voluntarily leave their jobs, fell to 2.3%, the lowest since August 2020.
This means that Americans are the least confident that they will find a new job since the 2020 Pandemic.
The US labor market is weakening.
铠甲勇士 retweeted
🎣 "Invest where the fish are." - Charlie Munger
Our “Market Brief” newsletter gives you access to free investing insights. See how our analyst team’s actionable, data-driven, process-based research can help protect and grow your portfolio.
There’s a better way. You've got nothing to lose: insights.hedgeye.com/market-…
铠甲勇士 retweeted
As large retailers were going BK during COVID, Tai Lopez backed Retail Ecommerce Ventures, bought naming rights of RadioShack, Pier 1, Modells, DressBarn and turned them into dropshipping websites, raising funds via his YT channel.
Last week, Retail Ecommerce Ventures dissolved.
铠甲勇士 retweeted
How will you generate returns in shifting #Quads?
In today's Chart of the Day @KeithMcCullough shows the road map that lays out top Stocks and ETFs to be buying in different #Quad regimes.
Long Utilities $XLU is the #1 back-tested US Equity Sector Style pivot when heading towards #Quad3 Stagflation.
app.hedgeye.com/insights/151…
铠甲勇士 retweeted
Cartoon of the Day 🃏
In Global #Quad2, Stocks (Equities) are among the best asset classes to allocate your hard earned capital.
app.hedgeye.com/insights/151…
铠甲勇士 retweeted
Inflation Since January 2021:
1. Eggs: 49.3%
2. Gasoline: 47.8%
3. Airfare: 32.7%
4. Electricity: 29.3%
5. Natural Gas: 26.9%
6. Chicken: 23.9%
7. Public Transportation: 22.2%
8. Used Cars: 20.9%
9. Milk: 15.0%
10. Clothes: 13.5%
Over the last 3 years, the purchasing power of a US Dollar has declined by 16%.
Furthermore, over the last 5 years, the purchasing power of a US Dollar has declined by 23%.
This effectively means uninvested money from 2019 is now worth almost ONE FOURTH LESS today.
How is this a strong economy?
铠甲勇士 retweeted
Bullish sentiment is through the roof:
In May, 48.2% of Americans anticipated stock prices to increase over the next 12 months, according to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey.
This is the 3rd highest reading in history, only below the January 2018 and March 2024 surveys.
Over just 2 years, this share has nearly doubled as stocks recovered from the 2022 bear market.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has rallied a massive 48% since the October 2022 low.
Stock market sentiment is incredibly strong.
铠甲勇士 retweeted
Black Swans, Bubbles and ‘How Small Events Can Trigger Massive Significance’
Renowned Oxford historian and bestselling “Silk Roads” author @peterfrankopan joined Hedgeye CEO @KeithMcCullough for a “Real Conversation” to discuss how an understanding and appreciation of history and long-term global trends can improve your investing and risk management.
“How big do bubbles get before they suddenly pop? When do you suddenly get vulnerabilities in systems that look resilient?” said Frankopan.
Similar to the catalyst that triggered WWI, “It's very small impacts, Black Swan events... that can suddenly cascade things downwards.”
Click here to watch the full interview free: app.hedgeye.com/insights/150…
铠甲勇士 retweeted
The S&P 500 just posted its best weekly streak in 35 years.
The index has increased in 23 of the last 30 weeks, a joint record since 1989, according to Deutsche Bank.
Should the S&P 500 close up this week, it would mark the 24th weekly gain out of 31 previous weeks, a performance last seen in 1963.
During this period, the index has rallied by 25% and added ~$12 trillion in market cap.
This is one of the strongest markets of all time.
