Assault (@AssaultCS2) profile picture

CS2 Arms Dealer - DH14 / K15 Specialist $BTC $MSTR

Joined August 2021
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Everything for Sale thread, lots of bangers. Tag / RT / Like Appreciated :) Maybe you know someone who would like
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THE SAYLOR EVENT HORIZON A point in Bitcoin space-time beyond which no corporation can ever catch up. Let’s break it down: 1. The Catch-Up Corridor Any company trying to dethrone @Strategy must buy at least one more satoshi than @Saylor. But here’s the catch: The cheapest coins left are future block rewards - because most existing BTC over the next 15 years will be in the hands of diamond-handed corporate holders who won’t sell unless the price goes parabolic. And parabolic price action only happens after Saylor has already stacked. If Strategy ever holds more BTC than what will be mined through 2040… No one can catch him. The rest would have to rip coins from hodlers, sending price into an exponential liquidity death spiral. 2. Total BTC Issuance Left Through 2040 Let’s quantify it: •2024–2028: 656,250 BTC •2028–2032: 328,125 BTC •2032–2036: 164,063 BTC •2036–2040: 82,031 BTC •Total = 1,230,469 BTC That’s it. That’s all the Bitcoin that will be mined over the next four halving cycles. We’ll round it: Bᵗᵒᵗ ≈ 1,231,000 BTC 3. Strategy’s Current Stack As of May 11, 2025, Strategy owns: Mₛ = 568,840 BTC 4. The Saylor Event Horizon (SEH) SEH occurs when: Mₛ ≥ Bᵗᵒᵗ Because once Strategy holds more BTC than the remaining mineable supply, no future issuance can close the gap. The number is precise: SEH = 1,231,000 BTC — 5. How Many More Coins Does He Need? Δ = SEH – Mₛ Δ ≈ 1,231,000 – 568,840 = 662,160 BTC At $105,000 per coin, that’s just $69.5B. One Apple-sized buyback. One sovereign wealth allocation. One generational arbitrage bet. But once he gets there, no company - not BlackRock, not Apple, not a nation-state—can ever out-mine him again. 6. Why It Matters Crossing the SEH makes Strategy the first irreversible Bitcoin hegemon: Mining can’t close the gap. Buying in secondary markets sends price vertical. Every sat acquired increases gravity, illiquidity, and fear. SEH is the threshold and the trapdoor. After 1.23M BTC, Saylor becomes the black hole at the center of the Bitcoin galaxy. The only way in is through him. The only way out is to bid into oblivion. If he hits 1,231,000 BTC, catching him is no longer “difficult.” It’s impossible without violating Bitcoin’s own thermodynamic laws. Everyone else becomes gravitationally locked - forever orbiting a treasury that cannot be matched, outmined, or outbid. This is the final form of corporate accumulation. This… is the singularity.
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Jim Chanos is now doing the long $BTC, short $MSTR pair trade. He says this is exactly what @Strategy does: sell MSTR, buy BTC. Hence it is a good trade. Here's why he's wrong. When Strategy sells MSTR for BTC, it’s a different beast: - They create MSTR shares out of thin air via ATM offerings, with no true hard cap on issuance - BTC per share rises, boosting NAV in all shares - BTC gets locked up, likely forever, creating a permanent supply shock that tightens the market When a trader like Jim does the pair trade, it’s a weaker setup: - MSTR shares are borrowed, limited by loanable availability and the trader’s collateral. - BTC per share doesn’t budge: NAV stays flat, no matter how big the trade. - BTC bought today gets sold when the trade unwinds, creating a temporary supply blip, not a lasting shock. Same action, wildly different economic impact. Strategy’s share issuance and BTC hoarding give it a structural edge, while the trader’s stuck with borrow costs, margin call risk, and betting against NAV upside. Even a $100B hedge fund can’t match Strategy’s firepower: issuing shares is not the same as shorting them. It gets worse. Strategy’s not just selling shares. That's not the only thing going on. $STRK, $STRF, convertibles, and even the software business each add layers of separation between a pair trader and the operating company. If Jim wants to “copy” Strategy, why stop at shorting $MSTR? Strategy’s convertible bonds are like selling long-dated MSTR calls—say, a 670 strike call option expiring in 5 years—at bargain IVs. If he’s so keen on their playbook, he could sell some LEAPS calls at market IV and still beat Strategy’s bond deals. Plenty of buyers would bite. But would Jim sell it to them? The point: Jim's pair trade might catch a short-term crunch in mNAV and be a winner, but betting against Strategy’s long game is like shorting a money printer. This is how you get destroyed. You think you're selling $1 for $2.50. What you're actually doing is selling short the company that is able to sell $1 for $2.50. Big difference there.
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Assault retweeted
Replying to @JSeyff
#bitcoin decoupling finally. was thinking the coupling was fake. maybe market makers using bitcoin market shortage of fiat liquidity to auto-correlate bitcoin, noticeable on US market open.
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There are no tariffs on Bitcoin.
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M2 Global Liquidity Index w 7 weeks lead tracks with $MSTR perfectly. We are going up.
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The Nature of Digital Sovereignty To interact with Bitcoin is to engage with something fundamentally different from any system before it. It is a form of wealth not backed by promises, not issued by rulers, not subject to dilution by the greed or incompetence of others. It is the first and only asset that exists entirely in the digital realm yet remains beyond the reach of those who seek control. It is not money as we have known it, but something more profound: the digital embodiment of individual will. A form of value storage that exists independent of the physical world, sustained only by the consensus of those who choose to uphold it. It cannot be seized, inflated, or erased. The private key is the mind’s dominion; the ledger is a universal memory. To hold Bitcoin is to step outside the traditional architecture of power. It is to engage with a system where force has no jurisdiction, where ownership is absolute. It is a quiet revolution - not one fought with weapons, but with exit. The act of opting in is an act of opting out.
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🚀Why MSTR is PRIMED for the MOON... and why we're still so EARLY TRADFI has not even REMOTELY caught on. While the world was watching NVDA pump 1,089%, a silent whale accumulated 2.4% OF ALL BITCOIN through a corporate vehicle. And the market hasn't figured it out yet. First, look at these numbers: AAPL: $3.5T MSFT: $3.1T AMZN: $2.4T META: $1.6T Now here's the galaxy brain part: MSTR quietly accumulated 478,740 BTC. That's TWO POINT FOUR PERCENT of all bitcoin that will ever exist. Ever. Let that sink in. "But anon, why is this important?" Because while everyone's arguing about Fed pivots and PE ratios, MSTR engineered one of the most genius bitcoin accumulation strategies in history: 0.532% weighted avg coupon 4.7 year duration 9% debt/market cap 1.96x mNAV This is god-tier financial engineering. The real 200 IQ play? They're not just holding bitcoin. They've created a NEW ASSET CLASS: Bitcoin exposure Corporate governance wrapper Options market liquidity Convertible optionality Tax efficiency It's like Papa Saylor found a cheat code in the financial matrix. Look at the vol spread: MSTR: 108% BTC: 43% The derivative is MORE VOLATILE than the underlying. This makes zero sense unless... ...the market is pricing in something massive that most traders haven't figured out yet. Here's where it gets wild: While NVDA traders celebrate 1,089% gains, MSTR built a position that could theoretically capture the entire bitcoin adoption curve IN A CORPORATE WRAPPER. This trade is maximum exposure to the entire future of digital assets. The smart money sees it: 90.4% Open Interest/Market Cap 3.20 Sharpe Ratio 74.3% BTC yield in 2024 These numbers are BREAKING traditional finance models. Nothing in TradFi moves like this without imploding. Why does this matter? Because while everyone's focused on the Mag7's $16.8T, they're missing that MSTR created a financial instrument that could become the de facto way institutions get bitcoin exposure. This is like getting into AAPL in 1980, but with bitcoin's upside. Let's talk about that 2.4% BTC position again: More bitcoin than most nations Corporate governance US regulatory framework Options liquidity Convertible arbitrage They're not just long bitcoin. They've built an institutional bridge to digital assets. The cherry on top? That 108% historical vol with a 3.20 Sharpe ratio. In any other asset, this would be impossible. Here's what the Mag7 watchers are missing: While they chase tech multiples, MSTR built a position that captures: Bitcoin's entire adoption curve Institutional capital flows TradFi/DeFi convergence Regulatory arbitrage Corporate wrapper benefits This is Grandmaster @Saylor playing 5D chess. The end game? When TradFi finally FOMOs into bitcoin, they'll need regulated vehicles with governance frameworks. Guess who built the largest, most sophisticated one while everyone was watching NVDA? This isn't even a trade. It's infrastructure for the future. Remember this thread when bitcoin hits $250k and everyone asks "how did we miss it?" The signs were there. The structure was built. The position was accumulated. While TradFI watched the Mag7 during the AI Boom, the real galaxy brain trade was hiding in plain sight.
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New ₿rand, Same Strategy
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Assault retweeted
– at Tysons Corner, VA
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Each day, it becomes easier to have any amount of dollars Each day, it becomes more difficult to own any amount of Bitcoin
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Money is time. Money is energy. You trade your finite hours on this earth for it. You pour your mental and physical energy into earning it. Money is YOU - your effort, your sweat, your sacrifice. Now ask yourself: why does the system get to devalue YOU? Fiat money is a lie. Printed endlessly. Debased at will. Every new dollar conjured into existence steals a piece of your life. The system robs you silently, siphoning your time and energy away through inflation, taxation, and control. They don’t just steal your wealth. They steal your freedom. Bitcoin is the antidote. A monetary system that doesn’t dilute your existence. A ledger of truth, secured by energy, immune to manipulation. A place where your time remains your time and your energy remains your own. Wake up and take back what’s yours. Bitcoin is the way.
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This is MASSIVE for $MSTR: With new FASB accounting rules, $TSLA marked up their BTC holdings and booked a $600 million GAIN. $TSLA is now up 5% in after-hours trading, adding $60 BILLION of shareholder value. Just IMAGINE when $MSTR does the same. YOU ARE NOT BULLISH ENOUGH!
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You simply cannot tell me that we are NOT super early to $MSTR. The vast majority of the public is not even remotely understanding the profundity of Bitcoin. There is ZERO CHANCE the market has priced in that Bitcoin is the greatest collateral humanity has ever seen. Immutable. Finite. Instantly verifiable. Portable. It makes every legacy asset look like a relic from the Stone Age. And @saylor has damn near a half million BTC. When nations and corporations finally wake up to Bitcoin as the superior backing for credit systems and sovereign reserves, the cascading demand will make the past five years of growth look like a warm-up. $MSTR's treasury is a chess move 10 steps ahead, and the prime mover in the digital capital era. I can't fathom anyone selling Bitcoin or MSTR when we are on the precipice of this level of adoption.
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MicroStrategy getting a banking license is going to have SEISMIC implications for the market value of $MSTR. MicroStrategy's mNAV stands poised for significant expansion thanks to SEC's repeal of SAB 121. Now imagine the multiplier effect if MicroStrategy, which already operates as a de facto leveraged Bitcoin ETF with strategic business operations on the side, were to pursue a banking license. This move would transform its treasury strategy into a more dynamic and profitable financial ecosystem. By leveraging its Bitcoin reserves as collateral, MicroStrategy could establish itself as a lender of last resort in the emerging crypto economy, offering Bitcoin-backed loans, custody services, and other financial products. Such a move would essentially shift its revenue model from a traditional SaaS model to one that combines fintech innovation with Bitcoin’s explosive growth potential. The convergence of these factors—accurate Bitcoin valuation on the balance sheet, the expansion of its revenue streams into financial services, and the regulatory legitimacy a banking license would confer—would dramatically enhance MicroStrategy’s mNAV. This shift would likely result in a virtuous cycle of higher investor confidence, a lower cost of capital, and an accelerated growth trajectory for the company. In essence, repealing SAB 121 and obtaining a banking license would unlock a new dimension for MicroStrategy, where it is no longer just a Bitcoin proxy but a cornerstone institution in the financial revolution Bitcoin is driving. The resulting mNAV expansion wouldn’t just be incremental; it could be exponential, as MicroStrategy evolves into an entity that bridges the gap between traditional finance and the decentralized future. The market wouldn’t merely reprice the company; it would reimagine it.
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MicroStrategy has acquired 10,107 BTC for ~$1.1 billion at ~$105,596 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 2.90% YTD 2025. As of 1/26/2025, we hodl 471,107 $BTC acquired for ~$30.4 billion at ~$64,511 per bitcoin. $MSTR microstrategy.com/press/micr…
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When Bitcoin is the hurdle rate you measure opportunity cost against, other options seem nonsensical in comparison.
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If you're new to $MSTR, don't be scared and read this. We are exiting the price contraction phase (ATM) as we speak - ATM increases $BTC holding (asset) without increasing debt, reducing the debt-to-equity ratio (deleverage). The reason we're exiting this phase is @saylor only has $5.4B ATM left but $16B CB remaining. He will make room on the balance sheet to take on more debt. The price expansion phase (convertible bonds (CB), etc.) will increase debt, but when $BTC rises, assets increase while debt remains. In this phase, @Saylor raises money at a 50%+ premium (conversion rate). Imagine your stock is worth $100; you can only sell it for $100 with ATM, but for $150 with CB. Dilution only occurs during CB conversion, which is delayed and less dilutive (to raise $1000, you sell fewer shares at $150 than at $100). Thus, leverage kicks in and the price shoots up significantly, increasing the stock's premium (higher mNAV). Then @Saylor runs ATM again to capitalize on the high premium, resulting in less dilution than at low mNAV. The cycle repeats. @Micro2Macr0
MicroStrategy's Growth Plan - ATM and Fixed Income Issuances People often complain about $MSTR issuing ATM, which they say prevents them from making money and dilutes their ownership. $MSTR stock growth has two phases: Phase 1 - Price Acceleration (Gas Pedal) - Fixed Income Issuance @Saylor issues various fixed income instruments (CBs, etc.), leveraging up the balance sheet and accelerating stock price appreciation (Sept to Nov 2024). During this phase, $MSTR takes on more debt to buy $BTC. CBs are recorded as long-term debt and will be removed after conversion to equity. Phase 2 - Price Deceleration (Brake Pedal) - ATM Issuance As the price accelerates, it trades at a high premium. @Saylor uses ATM to leverage down the balance sheet, decelerating price appreciation (Nov 2024 to now). During this phase, the stock price tends to drop due to profit-taking, panic selling, and stock dilution. As "Asset - Liabilities (Debt) = Stockholders' Equity", to de-leverage balance sheet: 1. Increase asset - buy more $BTC 2. Decrease debt - don't issue more CBs The current DtE ratio is about 0.177 (17.7%). @Saylor's goal is a 25% (0.25) leverage ratio. $MSTR is underleveraged, so @Saylor can issue about $3.1B CBs to reach this. See xitter.cf/RealMarkHe/status/1877…. @Saylor has $18B out of $21B left to issue, but issuing more than $3B now would exceed the desired leverage ratio of 25%. This quarter, he's been issuing ATM to prepare for future large CB issuances. I expect @Saylor to ramp up CB issuance in Q4 or Q1. I also expect @saylor to announce future large ATM & Fixed Income plans during Q1 earnings. My guess is near $100B, or more. I hope this post calms down uninformed new $MSTR buyers. Enjoy the upcoming price acceleration phase. 🚀🚀 @Micro2Macr0
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Assault retweeted
Day in the life as a retired 22 year old $MSTR shareholder: 1) Watch the 1 minute candles on $MSTR 2) Complain about the price of $MSTR on X 3) Nap at 1:00 pm 4) Wake up at 2:30 5) Watch more 1 minute candles on $MSTR 6) Make a post asking when the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will get created 7) Complain on X about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve not being created yet 8) Watch South Park 9) Go to bed
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