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ALT Cover: Week 7 mismatches, the biggest matchup edges adjusted for schedule: Packers passing game at Lions +150; Rams passing game at Raiders +103; Cowboys receivers at Eagles +93; Bengals receivers at Ravens +58; Falcons run game vs 49ers +54; Panthers passing game vs Buccaneers +54.
ALT Early Sunday: Bengals receivers at Ravens, mismatch +58 yards a game (gains 186, the defense allows 176). Ja'Marr Chase rec yds line 82.5, over in 1 of 5 games; Tee Higgins rec yds line 65.5, over in 3 of 5 games. Falcons run game vs 49ers, mismatch +54 yards a game (gains 142, the defense allows 80). Bijan Robinson rush yds line 88.5, over in 2 of 6 games.
ALT More mismatches: Panthers passing game vs Buccaneers, mismatch +54 yards a game (gains 310, the defense allows 238). Bryce Young pass yds line 253.5, over in 5 of 5 games; Tetairoa McMillan rec yds line 70.5, over in 4 of 5 games. Cowboys receivers at Eagles, mismatch +93 yards a game (gains 218, the defense allows 181). CeeDee Lamb rec yds line 82.5, over in 3 of 6 games; George Pickens rec yds line 64.5, over in 4 of 6 games.
ALT Sunday afternoon: Packers passing game at Lions, mismatch +150 yards a game (gains 281, the defense allows 320). Jordan Love pass yds line 281.5, over in 3 of 6 games; Christian Watson rec yds line 76.5, over in 3 of 6 games. Rams passing game at Raiders, mismatch +103 yards a game (gains 301, the defense allows 254). Matthew Stafford pass yds line 258.5, over in 4 of 6 games; Tyler Higbee rec yds line 38.5, over in 3 of 5 games.
ALT Tough spots, passing games against strong pass defenses: Dolphins passing game at Jets -118, Malik Willis pass yds line 183.5; Titans passing game vs Browns -94, Cam Ward pass yds line 182.5; Colts passing game at Vikings -65, Daniel Jones pass yds line 188.
ALT How it works: offense above normal plus defense above normal. This week's example, Packers passing game at Lions: +64 plus +85 equals +150. The Broncos allow the 3rd most RB rush yds but are about average adjusted; the Giants allow 32 more than those offenses usually get.
ALT Cover: Giants at Texans, Sun 1:00 PM ET. The Texans defense: WR receiving yards allowed 196 a game (2nd worst, NFL avg 151); completions allowed 24 a game (bottom 5, NFL avg 22). The Giants defense: yards per carry allowed 5.0 (2nd worst, NFL avg 4.1); TDs allowed to WRs 1.2 a game (3rd worst, NFL avg 0.9); passing TDs allowed 2.0 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 1.5). Left off. Did not practice Friday: David Montgomery.
ALT Texans soft spots and the Giants who line up: Malik Nabers's receiving yards by week 1, 26, 112, 121, 165 against a line of 68.5; Jameis Winston's completions by week 11, 14, 18, 33, 14. Tough spot: The Texans allow the 3rd fewest yards per carry in NFL. Tough spot for Skattebo.
ALT Giants soft spots and the Texans who line up: Woody Marks's rushing yards by week 8, 15, 22, 62, 56 against a line of 61.5, marked Mixed; Nico Collins's receiving yards by week 75, 118, 56, 74; C.J. Stroud's TD passes by week 0, 1, 2, 1, 3.
ALT How to find it in the app: open the game, read each defense's weak spots on the Matchup tab, find the players who line up.
ALT Cover: Dolphins at Jets, Sun 1:00 PM ET. The Jets defense: RB rushing yards allowed 106 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 90); TDs allowed to WRs 1.0 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 0.9); yards per carry allowed 4.2 (softer than avg, NFL avg 4.1). The Dolphins defense: catches allowed to TEs 7.4 a game (3rd worst, NFL avg 5.5); passing TDs allowed 2.2 a game (bottom 5, NFL avg 1.5); RB receiving yards allowed 39 a game (bottom 5, NFL avg 31).
ALT Jets soft spots and the Dolphins who line up: Ollie Gordon II's rushing yards by week 0, 7, 41, 100, 88 against a line of 52.5, marked Mixed; Malik Washington's receiving yards by week 53, 43, 56, 67, 43, marked Mixed; De'Von Achane's rushing yards by week 36, 74, 17.
ALT Dolphins soft spots and the Jets who line up: Kenyon Sadiq's catches by week 2, 7, 0, 2, 1 against a line of 2.5, marked Mixed; Geno Smith's TD passes by week 1, 3, 1, 1, 1; Breece Hall's receiving yards by week 16, 63, 23. Tough spot: The Dolphins allow the 3rd fewest WR receiving yards in NFL. Tough spot for Wilson.
ALT How to find it in the app: open the game, read each defense's weak spots on the Matchup tab, find the players who line up.
ALT Cover: 49ers at Falcons, Sun 1:00 PM ET. The Falcons defense: catches allowed to WRs 14.8 a game (worst in NFL, NFL avg 11.6); completions allowed 26 a game (2nd worst, NFL avg 22); catches allowed to RBs 5.3 a game (bottom 5, NFL avg 4.4). The 49ers defense: catches allowed to RBs 7.2 a game (worst in NFL, NFL avg 4.4); completions allowed 24 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 22). Left off. Did not practice Friday: Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel Sr.
ALT Falcons soft spots and the 49ers who line up: Demarcus Robinson's catches by week 2, 3; Brock Purdy's completions by week 20, 15, 19, 19, 21 against a line of 20.5, marked Mixed; Christian McCaffrey's catches by week 4, 4, 3, 3, 9 against a line of 5.5, marked Mixed.
ALT 49ers soft spots and the Falcons who line up: Bijan Robinson's catches by week 3, 2, 1, 4, 2 against a line of 3.5, marked Mixed; Michael Penix Jr.'s completions by week 18, 15, 19, 19 against a line of 19.5, marked Mixed.
ALT How to find it in the app: open the game, read each defense's weak spots on the Matchup tab, find the players who line up.
ALT Cover: Rams at Raiders, Sun 4:25 PM ET. The Raiders defense: RB rushing yards allowed 114 a game (2nd worst, NFL avg 90); TDs allowed to WRs 1.2 a game (3rd worst, NFL avg 0.9); TDs allowed to TEs 1.0 a game (3rd worst, NFL avg 0.5). The Rams defense: TDs allowed to WRs 1.2 a game (3rd worst, NFL avg 0.9); RB receiving yards allowed 40 a game (bottom 5, NFL avg 31).
ALT Raiders soft spots and the Rams who line up: Kyren Williams's rushing yards by week 85, 88, 80, 49, 50 against a line of 65.5; Puka Nacua's receiving yards by week 74, 125, 138, 80; Terrance Ferguson's receiving yards by week 0, 54, 9.
ALT Rams soft spots and the Raiders who line up: Tre Tucker's receiving yards by week 119, 43, 44, 41, 97; Ashton Jeanty's receiving yards by week 15, 37, 68, 50, 36 against a line of 25.5. Tough spot: The Rams allow the 2nd fewest passing yards in NFL. Tough spot for Cousins.
ALT How to find it in the app: open the game, read each defense's weak spots on the Matchup tab, find the players who line up.
ALT Cover: Buccaneers at Panthers, Sun 1:00 PM ET. The Panthers defense: yards per carry allowed 5.1 (worst in NFL, NFL avg 4.1); QB rushing yards allowed 29 a game (3rd worst, NFL avg 17.2); TDs allowed to TEs 0.8 a game (bottom 5, NFL avg 0.5). The Buccaneers defense: catches allowed to RBs 5.3 a game (bottom 5, NFL avg 4.4); completions allowed 24 a game (bottom 5, NFL avg 22); TDs allowed to TEs 0.7 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 0.5). Left off. Did not practice Friday: Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr.
ALT Panthers soft spots and the Buccaneers who line up: Bucky Irving's rushing yards by week 89, 46, 61, 165, 46 against a line of 65.5, marked Mixed; Jalon Daniels's rushing yards by week 9, 55, 23, 39; Cade Otton's receiving yards by week 38, 56, 37, 25, 4, marked Mixed.
ALT Buccaneers soft spots and the Panthers who line up: Chuba Hubbard's catches by week 3, 2, 4, 1, 1 against a line of 2.5, marked Mixed; Bryce Young's completions by week 23, 23, 26, 29, 20 against a line of 22.5; Darren Waller's receiving yards by week 28, 33, 51, 36, 0, marked Mixed. Tough spot: The Buccaneers allow the 2nd fewest yards per carry in NFL. Tough spot for Hubbard.
ALT How to find it in the app: open the game, read each defense's weak spots on the Matchup tab, find the players who line up.
ALT Cover: Chiefs at Seahawks, Sun 8:20 PM ET. The Seahawks defense: catches allowed to RBs 5.3 a game (bottom 5, NFL avg 4.4); QB rushing yards allowed 18.8 a game (softer than avg, NFL avg 17.2). The Chiefs defense: catches allowed to TEs 7.8 a game (2nd worst, NFL avg 5.5); QB rushing yards allowed 18.8 a game (softer than avg, NFL avg 17.2). Left off. Did not practice Friday: Rashee Rice.
ALT Seahawks soft spots and the Chiefs who line up: Kenneth Walker III's catches by week 3, 6, 2, 1, 2 against a line of 3.5, marked Mixed; Patrick Mahomes's rushing yards by week 23, 17, 1, 0, 16 against a line of 15.5, marked Mixed. Tough spot: The Seahawks allow the fewest passing yards in NFL. Tough spot for Mahomes.
ALT Chiefs soft spots and the Seahawks who line up: AJ Barner's catches by week 1, 5, 1, 3, 3 against a line of 2.5; Sam Darnold's rushing yards by week 0, 5, 6, 5, 19 against a line of 4.5, marked Mixed. Tough spot: The Chiefs allow the 2nd fewest RB rushing yards in NFL. Tough spot for Wilson.
ALT How to find it in the app: open the game, read each defense's weak spots on the Matchup tab, find the players who line up.
ALT Cover: Browns at Titans, Sun 1:00 PM ET. The Titans defense: catches allowed to WRs 13.8 a game (bottom 5, NFL avg 11.6); WR receiving yards allowed 175 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 151); RB rushing yards allowed 99 a game (softer than avg, NFL avg 90). The Browns defense: TDs allowed to WRs 1.2 a game (3rd worst, NFL avg 0.9); passing TDs allowed 1.8 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 1.5); TDs allowed to TEs 0.7 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 0.5). Left off. Did not practice Friday: Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley.
ALT Titans soft spots and the Browns who line up: Denzel Boston's catches by week 5, 2, 4, 3, 1 against a line of 3.5, marked Mixed; KC Concepcion's receiving yards by week 28, 9, 64, 5, 37 against a line of 39.5, marked Mixed; Quinshon Judkins's rushing yards by week 33, 21, 70, 53, 44 against a line of 46.5, marked Mixed. Tough spot: The Titans allow the 2nd fewest TE receiving yards in NFL. Tough spot for Fannin.
ALT Browns soft spots and the Titans who line up: Carnell Tate's receiving yards by week 27, 58, 145, 6, 70, marked Mixed; Cam Ward's TD passes by week 0, 1, 1, 0, 1; Daniel Bellinger's receiving yards by week 0, 16, 2, 5, 0, marked Mixed. Tough spot: The Browns allow the 3rd fewest RB receiving yards in NFL. Tough spot for Spears.
ALT How to find it in the app: open the game, read each defense's weak spots on the Matchup tab, find the players who line up.
ALT Cover: Colts at Vikings, Sun 1:00 PM ET. The Vikings defense: no soft spot that fits a Colts player. The Vikings pressure the QB the most often in NFL. Tough spot for Jones. The Colts defense: yards per carry allowed 4.8 (bottom 10, NFL avg 4.1); TDs allowed to TEs 0.7 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 0.5); QB rushing yards allowed 22 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 17.2). Left off. Did not practice Friday: Tyler Warren.
ALT Colts soft spots and the Vikings who line up: Aaron Jones's rushing yards by week 40, 105, 58, 94, 113 against a line of 38.5; T.J. Hockenson's receiving yards by week 36, 29, 11, 119, 7, marked Mixed; Kyler Murray's rushing yards by week 9, 17, 16, 51 against a line of 25.5, marked Mixed.
ALT How to find it in the app: open the game, read each defense's weak spots on the Matchup tab, find the players who line up.
ALT Cover: Steelers at Saints, Sun 9:30 AM ET. The Saints defense: RB rushing yards allowed 117 a game (worst in NFL, NFL avg 90); catches allowed to TEs 7.0 a game (bottom 5, NFL avg 5.5); passing yards allowed 256 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 236). The Steelers defense: catches allowed to RBs 4.7 a game (softer than avg, NFL avg 4.4); catches allowed to WRs 11.7 a game (softer than avg, NFL avg 11.6).
ALT Saints soft spots and the Steelers who line up: Jaylen Warren's rushing yards by week 43, 127, 93, 101, 50 against a line of 63.5; Pat Freiermuth's catches by week 4, 2, 3, 5, 2 against a line of 3.5; Aaron Rodgers's passing yards by week 187, 292, 299, 235, 253 against a line of 231.5.
ALT Steelers soft spots and the Saints who line up: Travis Etienne's catches by week 7, 2, 2; Chris Olave's catches by week 8, 9, 8, 4, 4 against a line of 5.5.
ALT How to find it in the app: open the game, read each defense's weak spots on the Matchup tab, find the players who line up.
ALT Cover: Bengals at Ravens, Sun 1:00 PM ET. The Ravens defense: RB rushing TDs allowed 0.8 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 0.7); WR receiving yards allowed 176 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 151); catches allowed to WRs 13.3 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 11.6). The Bengals defense: TE receiving yards allowed 90 a game (2nd worst, NFL avg 54); yards per carry allowed 5.0 (3rd worst, NFL avg 4.1); QB rushing yards allowed 29 a game (bottom 5, NFL avg 17.2).
ALT Ravens soft spots and the Bengals who line up: Chase Brown's rushing yards by week 56, 80, 61, 10, 39, marked Mixed; Ja'Marr Chase's receiving yards by week 12, 75, 98, 27, 77 against a line of 80.5, marked Mixed; Tee Higgins's catches by week 3, 5, 6, 11, 2 against a line of 4.5. Tough spot: The Ravens allow the fewest RB receiving yards in NFL. Tough spot for Brown.
ALT Bengals soft spots and the Ravens who line up: Mark Andrews's receiving yards by week 49, 24, 27, 28, 4; Derrick Henry's rushing yards by week 68, 89, 73, 102, 58 against a line of 85.5; Lamar Jackson's rushing yards by week 40, 34, 50, 20. Tough spot: The Bengals stop runs at the line the most often in NFL. Tough spot for Henry.
ALT How to find it in the app: open the game, read each defense's weak spots on the Matchup tab, find the players who line up.
ALT Vantage prop card number 22 for Matthew Golden of the Packers, 73.5 rec yds against the Lions, Week 7. This season's games: 95, 58, 100, 21, 123, 104. Lions defense: WR receiving yards allowed, 2nd worst. Tag: Agree.
ALT Chart of all 32 NFL teams by offense (left to right) and defense (bottom to top) over their last 4 games, split into four boxes: good on both sides, defense carrying, offense carrying, struggling on both. Good on both sides: Panthers and Chiefs. Defense carrying: Vikings and Buccaneers. Offense carrying: Lions and Patriots. Struggling on both: Eagles and Dolphins.
ALT Bar chart of catches to tight ends allowed a game for the 26 teams still playing in Week 7, with the Lions highlighted at 10.2. Beside it, Tucker Kraft's line of 4.5 catches and his games this season: 3, 2, 4, 6, 5, 5.
ALT Thursday Night, Week 7, Patriots at Bears, 8:15 PM ET. 3 props the numbers back, each player's games this season against tonight's line. Hunter Henry, Patriots TE, over 33.5 receiving yards, 4 of 6 this season (26, 40, 5, 62, 44, 48); over in his last 3, but the Bears pass defense is top 5. Luther Burden III, Bears WR, over 56.5 receiving yards, 4 of 6 (63, 32, 61, 63, 47, 95); 5+ targets every game and the Patriots have 3 cornerbacks Out. Rome Odunze, Bears WR, under 3.5 catches, 5 of 6 (2, 3, 3, 6, 3, 3); the Patriots' missing corners push the other way. Free for 7 days on the Vantage web app. Context, not a forecast. 21+ where betting is legal.
ALT Cover: Patriots at Bears, Thu 8:15 PM ET. The Bears defense: yards per carry allowed 4.5 (bottom 10, NFL avg 4.1); TDs allowed to WRs 1.0 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 0.9); WR receiving yards allowed 160 a game (softer than avg, NFL avg 151). The Patriots defense: RB receiving yards allowed 39 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 31); TDs allowed to WRs 1.0 a game (bottom 10, NFL avg 0.9); catches allowed to WRs 11.8 a game (softer than avg, NFL avg 11.6). Left off. Out: Kyle Monangai.
ALT Bears soft spots and the Patriots who line up: Rhamondre Stevenson's rushing yards by week 43, 22, 47, 64, 36 against a line of 41.5; A.J. Brown's receiving yards by week 26, 27, marked Mixed; DeMario Douglas's receiving yards by week 9, 38, 15, 65, 86 against a line of 37.5. Tough spot: The Bears pressure the QB 3rd most often in NFL. Tough spot for Maye.
ALT Patriots soft spots and the Bears who line up: D'Andre Swift's receiving yards by week 54, 4, 16, 30, 26 against a line of 18.5; Luther Burden III's receiving yards by week 32, 61, 63, 47, 95, marked Mixed; Rome Odunze's catches by week 3, 3, 6, 3, 3 against a line of 3.5, marked Mixed.
ALT How to find it in the app: open the game, read each defense's weak spots on the Matchup tab, find the players who line up.
ALT Vantage prop card number 24 for C.J. Stroud of the Texans, 255.5 pass yds against the Giants, Week 7. This season's games: 274, 353, 167, 347, 261, 312. Giants defense: rarely pressures the QB, 3rd worst. Tag: Agree.
ALT Week 7 cheat sheet cover with one usage leader, one prop and one matchup for each of QB, RB, WR and TE.
ALT Line vs evidence board. Evidence points over: Chris Olave over 5.5 receptions (6 of last 8); Darren Waller over 22.5 rec yds (6 of last 8); Bryce Young over 252 pass yds (6 of last 8); Ashton Jeanty over 26.5 rec yds (5 of last 8); Devaughn Vele over 3.5 receptions (5 of last 8). Evidence points under: Courtland Sutton under 3.5 receptions (7 of last 8); Travis Kelce under 4.5 receptions (6 of last 8); D'Andre Swift under 60.5 rush yds (6 of last 8); Cam Ward under 187.5 pass yds (6 of last 8); Jaylen Waddle under 5.5 receptions (7 of last 8).
ALT RB anytime TD sheet. Each player shows the book price, our stats model's TD chance, and the three things behind it. Biggest TD prices: Jahmyr Gibbs −355 (78% chance by the book, our stats 67%); Christian McCaffrey −275 (73% chance by the book, our stats 63%); Derrick Henry −265 (73% chance by the book, our stats 47%); Bijan Robinson −240 (71% chance by the book, our stats 53%); Javonte Williams −175 (64% chance by the book, our stats 48%); D'Andre Swift −165 (62% chance by the book, our stats 44%). Priced for more than the stats show: Saquon Barkley −105 (51% chance by the book, our stats 30%); Tyler Allgeier +165 (38% chance by the book, our stats 19%); Kendre Miller +150 (40% chance by the book, our stats 21%); Breece Hall −125 (55% chance by the book, our stats 37%); Woody Marks −135 (57% chance by the book, our stats 40%).
ALT WR/TE anytime TD sheet. Each player shows the book price, our stats model's TD chance, and the three things behind it. Biggest TD prices: Amon-Ra St. Brown −150 (60% chance by the book, our stats 48%); Puka Nacua −130 (57% chance by the book, our stats 45%); Ja'Marr Chase +105 (49% chance by the book, our stats 43%); Brock Bowers +115 (46% chance by the book, our stats 37%); Nico Collins +115 (46% chance by the book, our stats 35%); CeeDee Lamb +120 (46% chance by the book, our stats 36%). Priced for more than the stats show: Isaiah Likely +180 (36% chance by the book, our stats 21%); Marvin Harrison Jr. +270 (27% chance by the book, our stats 14%); Jalen Royals +400 (20% chance by the book, our stats 7%); Dalton Schultz +240 (29% chance by the book, our stats 17%); Jalen Coker +170 (37% chance by the book, our stats 25%).
ALT usage leaders Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Kirk Cousins, Patrick Mahomes. Props vs the last 8 games: Bo Nix pass yds 218, under in 7 of 8, tag Soft matchup; Cam Ward pass yds 187.5, under in 6 of 8, tag Agree; Tyler Shough pass yds 232.5, over in 6 of 8, tag Tough matchup; Bryce Young pass yds 252, over in 6 of 8, tag Agree; Jordan Love pass yds 279, under in 5 of 8, tag Soft matchup. Friendliest matchup: GB vs DET, 321 pass yds/g allowed (Worst in NFL).
ALT usage leaders Jahmyr Gibbs, Kenneth Walker III, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Ashton Jeanty. Props vs the last 8 games: Javonte Williams rush yds 67.5, under in 7 of 8, tag Soft matchup; Kenneth Walker III rush yds 87, over in 6 of 8, tag Tough matchup; Rhamondre Stevenson rush yds 42.5, over in 6 of 8, tag Tough matchup; Chase Brown rush yds 50.5, over in 6 of 8, tag Tough matchup; D'Andre Swift rush yds 60.5, under in 6 of 8, tag Agree. Friendliest matchup: PIT vs NO, 117 RB rush yds/g allowed (Worst in NFL).
ALT usage leaders Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, Chris Olave. Props vs the last 8 games: Chris Olave rec yds 76, over in 6 of 8, tag Tough matchup; Jaylen Waddle rec yds 55.5, under in 6 of 8, tag Soft matchup; Tetairoa McMillan rec yds 70.5, over in 6 of 8, tag Tough matchup; DK Metcalf rec yds 58, under in 6 of 8, tag Soft matchup; Amon-Ra St. Brown rec yds 80.5, under in 6 of 8, tag Agree. Friendliest matchup: NYG vs HOU, 196 WR yds/g allowed (2nd worst).
ALT usage leaders Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert. Props vs the last 8 games: Hunter Henry rec yds 33.5, over in 6 of 8, tag Tough matchup; Sam LaPorta rec yds 50.5, over in 5 of 8, tag Tough matchup; George Kittle rec yds 68.5, over in 5 of 8, tag Agree; Tucker Kraft rec yds 48.5, under in 5 of 8, tag Soft matchup; Harold Fannin Jr. rec yds 30.5, under in 5 of 8, tag Agree. Friendliest matchup: GB vs DET, 109 TE yds/g allowed (Worst in NFL).