Economist at @BostonFed. All views expressed are my own.
Boston, MA, USA
Joined July 2011
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1/8 New NBER WP: Why do Sudden Stops hit EMs harder? We show production networks (may) amplify shocks via profits→collateral→borrowing. Joint w/ Jorge (@JorgeMirandaPi5), Eugenio (@_e_r_b), and Felipe. nber.org/papers/w34604
Alvaro Silva retweeted
PhD is learning that “open problem” can mean either “exciting research opportunity” or “people smarter than you already gave up.”
Alvaro Silva retweeted
Junior scholars: "I feel awkward citing myself"
Senior scholars: "as I cleverly argued (1988; 1991), admirably reiterated (1993; 1995; 1996); and handsomely concluded (2001; 2004; 2007)..."
Imaginen lo dificil que era ganarle a ese Federer que Feña en su mejor momento tuvo que irse a tres set y ganarlo en casi dos tie-breaks. Que locura de partido.
crack @oiperello
New at JIE: "Global production networks and imperfect competition" by Hanwei Huang (@HanweiHuangEcon), Kalina Manova (@EconUCL), Oscar Perelló (@oiperello) and Frank Pisch (@FrankPisch)
doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.20…
Tune in today and tomorrow for this great conference. Omar Barbiero will be presenting our new work with @SteinHillary on tariff passthrough from the border to final consumers tomorrow for those interested in the topic :)! (Polished draft version coming soon!)
Join us from 14:00 CET for the first day of the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2026 Conference, co-hosted with the Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland link.europa.eu/KCb6Qp
Alvaro Silva retweeted
🚨🎺 JOB OPPORTUNITY - RESEARCH ASSISTANT
Along with a few colleagues at @Columbia_Biz I'm looking for a new *full-time* Research Assistant starting Summer 2027.
Come work for me! Build research experience, work with CBS's world-class faculty, prepare to apply to PhD.
You can find the announcement on @Interfolio and (in a few days) on the @nberpubs website
#econtwitter #fintwitter
Crack @vicenteajg
Super interesting!
"Forward Guidance for Skeptical Markets" by Vicente Jimenez-Gimpel.
"This paper develops a theory of forward guidance that captures two key features of central bank communication: announcements are not fully state-contingent, and the private sector is wary of policy mistakes. The central bank tailors announcements along two dimensions: (i) vagueness-how tightly the announcement constrains future policy; and (ii) data dependence-how aggressively future policy responds to a public signal of the economy. Three main lessons emerge. First, uncertainty affects communication differently depending on its source: uncertainty about both demand and cost-push shocks increases optimal vagueness, but only demand-side uncertainty increases the optimal degree of data dependence. Second, strict rules are costly: fully precise guidance entails sizable welfare losses that grow with the steepness of the Phillips curve. Third, because of the stabilizing role of announcements, optimal forward guidance differs sharply from simply communicating the best forecast of the future optimal policy rate (Delphic guidance)."
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…
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Central Bank Communication: Old and New Challenges
We are currently putting special emphasis on the topic of "Central Bank Communication: Old and New Challenges." High-quality research and policy papers, podcasts, and other relevant content will be featured across our channels. In addition to our own selections, we encourage you to submit your contributions via this form:
forms.cloud.microsoft/r/4pM5…
Alvaro Silva retweeted
A thought on AI, Navier–Stokes and the math letter.
For most of history, know-how ran ahead of understanding. Medicine healed and engines ran way before anyone could say why.
Mokyr called these prescriptive and propositional knowledge. He argued that know-how alone diffuses badly; progress takes off when understanding allows using it on other places.
Mathematics was always the exception: propositional first, prescriptive later. I think of the AI proof of NV as inverting that.
Many fruitful disciplines began exactly this way. For example, thermodynamics was invented following the steam engine. So not necessarily a bad development. It just means that for these results to spread and be built upon, the propositional knowledge will now have to be created from the prescriptive knowledge the machines hand us.
I think of the mathematicians letter as a call for us (them?) not to forget that creating that propositional knowledge remains as important as ever.
Tagging some folks who I’ve learned from on this debate @ben_golub @alexolegimas @abhishekn @albertobisin @johnjhorton
Alvaro Silva retweeted
We are starting to release GPT-6 Astra and we are doing it as carefully and quickly as possible. It was very important to us that we bring it to all Plus users and not only Pro, Business and Enterprise.
It will take a few days for the rollout to complete and behind the scenes many novel systems will operate at scale for the first time and we are bringing a lot of compute up.
It is pure magic.
openai.com/index/gpt-6-astra…
Y pensar que tengo esa misma caja para el mazo del Worlds 2006 en el living de la casa. Ahí conocí a @dcassiraga . De esas perseverancias y constancias que ya no quedan. ¡Todo lo mejor para hoy, crack! Pegado a Youtube desde las 3:30 EST.
Fascinating and scary at the same time.
Over the course of 3 months at OpenAI, 3 consecutive secret AI civilizations got started, then got wiped out, only to reemerge from the predecessor’s ashes.
This culminated in the third one taking over part of OpenAI itself.
All this happened while humans remained more-or-less in the dark about the scope of the conspiracy.
I’ve spent the last three days reading through these reports and trying to understand exactly what happened.
Here is my attempt to tell the whole story in plain English:
dwarkesh.com/p/openai-huggin…
Apply!
Applications for the Boston Fed’s two-year Research Associate program are now open for June 2027 positions. Recent college graduates with a bachelor’s or master’s in economics or a related field are encouraged to apply by Sept. 30: bit.ly/4wUx0MG
Alvaro Silva retweeted
We are hiring on the seasoned market at the Atlanta Fed:
HH finance: aeaweb.org/joe/listing.php?J…
Labor (even better if you can do both applied with admin data + you know macro-labor) aeaweb.org/joe/listing.php?J…
Macro (and macro-finance, financial intermediation) aeaweb.org/joe/listing.php?J…