Now: Format One; Prior: Expa, 500Startups, ReTargeter; Passionate: startups, venture capital, learning, people, music, philosophy & life.
Mostly in the Bay Area
Joined January 2008
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The MOVEMENT begins! Sign up with your email on moovlab.com to receive a special pre-order offer. Only 500 units are available for pre-order. Shipping starts in October.
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For years, software was the dream: build it once, sell it forever, enjoy the fat margins. But memory chips just posted a 76% operating margin versus 45% for mega-cap software in Q2 2026. Apparently getting everyone using AI, then selling them memory is another great approach.
This chart doesn’t prove Jevons Paradox is at work, but falling inference costs are its precondition: cheaper AI opens the market to far more users and use cases. The riches in even tinier niches will get discovered.
We are so back?! Investors are back to writing more checks than they have in a while. An estimated 5,012 VC deals closed in Q3, the highest quarterly total since 2022.
Arjun Dev Arora retweeted
Introducing SubQ Snap, the first long-context decision model for real enterprise work.
Snap is the only decision model or LLM where compute per token stays constant as context grows.
• 384K tokens of multimodal context, 12x larger than Jev.
• 61.7 on Decision Index v0.2.1 vs Jev’s 57.9, outperforming on 13 of 16 enterprise benchmarks.
•Processes 100K tokens and returns a decision in under one second.
•$0.05/MM input tokens. Output is free.
Available today to anyone.
The first 10,000 sign-ups get 100M free input tokens.
We’ll likely hit capacity fast and will add users as we add compute. Compute offers welcome 🙂.
Latency will be variable as we tune the platform to this new model and category of users.
Model speeds are 80ms for minimal context, 250ms for 32k, 660ms for 100k, and 2.5 seconds for 384k.
Visit: subq.ai/
Arjun Dev Arora retweeted
I've been through a few cycles where startups had to focus on being default alive. We are now in one of those. But this time it's 95% of startups. The top 5% have endless money.
Big Five M&A (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and NVIDIA) value is massive, but the number of startups acquired is tiny.
Acquisition volume hasn't recovered, but deal value has. It’s a market where the biggest buyers are selective about what they're buying, but willing to pay up for it.
Arjun Dev Arora retweeted
98% of US households aren't paying for AI yet
More charts in State of Markets II: a16z.news/p/state-of-markets…
Introducing our State of Markets pt 2, along with a companion podcast where we unpack the data and discuss what comes next.
Tech is the everything cycle.
Supply: putting the buildout in context, just passed railroads as % of GDP. The wisdom of Elon is real: the factory (or the datacenter!) is the product.
Demand: diffusion is so, so early. Median AI vendor spending in the top 1% of companies is 8x that of the top 10%. Only about 30% of S&P 500 companies report a quantified AI impact, which means there’s a substantial opportunity in connecting models to a company's data and workflows. Diffusion into companies is one of the main themes of the next 5 years.
We’re entering the agent work period. Only a few million users today, but applicable to billions of internet users with massive surplus created. META/GOOG monetize US users at $200+ per year today. Agent opportunity is much higher.
Mega-trends the next 5 years: Consumer agents, Robotics, Autonomy, AI x bio, Personal health, Diffusion into enterprise, New era of American Dynamism.
Much more in our SoM report here - a16z.news/p/state-of-markets…
@a16z @sarahdingwang @aleximm @santiago__rdz
Arjun Dev Arora retweeted
Exclusive: Anthropic is seeking to go public as soon as the middle of November, according to sources, after the artificial intelligence model maker pushed back plans to list bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
I'm moderating A New Era in VC at the Venture Futures Forum this Friday at Oakland Tech Week, with Scott Beechuk, Saydeah Howard and Drew Glover, on what happens when networks outperform capital. Presented by Google for Startups and hosted by Transparent Collective and Black Ops VC.
Details and registration: otw.transparentcollective.co… #OaklandTechWeek #OTW26
Arjun Dev Arora retweeted
sean and @hrcsuraj ( @humanrce ) built @starshiphsa inside one of the most regulated corners of healthcare.
where every product change ran through banks, operators, or washington.
they sold to @Optum (@UHC ) in 2022. now they invest alongside founders early, while the rules are still being written.
Funds over $100M raised 38% of the capital in the 2017 VC vintage. By 2024, their share had climbed to 71%, nearly double.
Which is a huge, but it slipped back a bit to 64% in 2025, a full 7% pullback.
While on the one hand there is a clear trend in fund concentration, with the SpaceX IPO and maybe the Anthropic IPO bringing much needed liquidity, this chart may be on the verge of swinging back in the other direction.
Arjun Dev Arora retweeted
WE JUST TOOK AMERICA.GOV LIVE
CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL AMERICANS FOR THIS HISTORIC OCCASION
Arjun Dev Arora retweeted
Breaking: Smart-ring maker Oura said it was delaying its planned IPO due to market uncertainty on.wsj.com/46QTCmB
The revenue required to fund the AI buildout is beginning to appear. Consumer spending more than tripled to $40 billion, and most of that came from existing users.
Arjun Dev Arora retweeted
News: We’re moving NFX to self-funded. Taking it private. No more external LP’s after fund IV. The four GP’s stay intact. 8 more big seed investments to make in Fund IV, so hit us up. After that, we'll be doing $100K - $3M investments w/ our own money. Thanks to @homebrew who led the way! @NFX @GigiLevy @peteflint @omri_drory
nfx.com/post/self-funding-nf…
Arjun Dev Arora retweeted
Introducing TASTE BENCH, Omneky's eval suite for the creative quality of AI-generated ads across image and video models.
Creative is the most important lever for growth. A blind panel of AI judges scores every ad on eight quality dimensions, including brand fit and typography, and checks it for 11 failures such as gibberish text, invented claims, and logo errors. We also track cost, latency, refusals, and judge agreement.
See every result at omneky.com/tastebench.
Today we're launching TASTE BENCH, Omneky's eval suite for the creative quality of AI-generated ads. For image ads, the top model, GPT Image 2.5 Sunburst, averaged 7.38 out of 10 on quality, yet only 54.2% of its ads were ready to run as-is. Across eight models, ready-to-run rates ranged from 22.0% to 54.2%. Every model got the same 59 briefs across four brands and five languages, and a blind panel of AI judges from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google checked each ad for exact copy, faithful logos and products, safe zones, and fabricated claims. These are first-attempt numbers with our own review step turned off.
We built TASTE BENCH because once you can measure taste, you can hill climb it. It covers image and video models, and you can explore every image ad, brief, judge explanation, and score at omneky.com/tastebench.
Arjun Dev Arora retweeted
Today, we’re proud to announce Databricks as the new sponsor of Cal Bears Field! 🐻
All seven of our co-founders are Cal alumni. The earliest lines of what would become Databricks were written at Berkeley’s Soda Hall, fueled by late nights and a shared belief that data and AI could accelerate human progress.
This sponsorship is our way of investing in the next generation of researchers and builders who’ll have their own breakthroughs there.
Our mission has always been to democratize data and AI. It started at Cal. We’re glad to help it continue there.
Go Bears. 💙
databricks.com/company/newsr…
Arjun Dev Arora retweeted
Cellular covers about 15% of Earth's landmass. Everything past that has meant hardware too expensive to justify tracking.
Today, we're opening satellite coverage to Bluetooth devices, plus a $200M Series C, crossing unicorn valuation.
@sana_pashankar at @Bloomberg has more.
Huge congratulations to team @hubble_network!
Satellite startup Hubble raised $200 million in a new funding round, taking the company’s valuation to $1.6 billion as it works to enable global Bluetooth connectivity through a network of spacecraft. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Unicorns are being created faster, but exiting slower.
The median new unicorn is now just over four years old, down 37% since 2023. At the same time, the 2022 startup cohort is showing the fastest early revenue growth on record.
I think this dynamic is fueled by new unicorns being minted faster, largely because AI companies can raise huge rounds and reach billion dollar valuations unusually early.
Meanwhile, the existing unicorn herd keeps aging because the IPO and acquisition markets remain slow.
xitter.cf/a16z/status/2100986415…
Unicorns are getting minted earlier:
- The median new unicorn is just over 4 years old, a 37% decline in age since 2023
- The median unicorn overall is 15 years old
Charts of the Week: a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-we…
