…in that vein, and as discussed previously¹, plenty of "natural brakes" already exist to govern AI proliferation, but we have no doubt removed some of them (e.g. tariff exemptions² and fiscal incentives for AI/tech/datacenter) at our peril, manifest 🤏 in economic crowding-out effects, distortions from funneling resources toward AI at the expense of the rest of the real economy, including not only competition for goods/services allocation (e.g. HVAC or construction below), but also things like monetary policy, wherein AI-led economic growth is pushing a higher-for-longer natural/neutral/equilibrium interest rate⁴, which the rest of the economy might struggle to bear and could stir more political angst about inequality⁵ – ymmv, but point is to be careful cutting-the-brakes: 1️⃣ “the technology share of GDP growth has risen from almost zero [in] 2022 to ~33%”⁶ 2️⃣ “only 20% of US states are growing faster than the national average, almost the lowest figure since 1979”⁶ 3️⃣ “AI accounts for the only positive trend in US construction spending, having risen by 38% since January 2024. Unfortunately the other three main categories are down since then (manufacturing -28%, commercial real estate -13% and residential -6%)”⁶ __ ¹medium.com/adventures-in-con… ²nitter.cf/AnthPB/status/19111229… ³nitter.cf/AnthPB/status/19398021… ⁴nitter.cf/AnthPB/status/20223279… ⁵nitter.cf/AnthPB/status/21005694… ⁶am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-…

On risk, liability, and insurance for nuclear power plants...

...if you ever doubt the progress or trajectory of AI in 2026, get nerfed outta Fable 5.1 or 5.0 so you're relegated back to coding with Opus 4.8 for a few hours¹ – feels like going from pocket calculators to VisiCalc to Excel with macros and connected live databases, except that spreadsheet progression took 13 years from the HP-35 to Excel, and we're talking mere weeks/months apart on the release dates (5/28, 6/9, 9/1) for each of these Claude models! __ ¹felt like a necessary tradeoff to preserve context/flow state 🤷 #anthropic

…cannot be overstated how important inflation expectations remaining anchored (compared to 2022) have been to sustaining macro economy, consumption, growth – since my "[brink of] unanchored to unhinged"¹: 1️⃣ INFLATION BREAKEVENS (tips): down from over 2.7% to under 2.4% (5y forward) 2️⃣ EXPECTED INFLATION (cleveland fed): down from over 3.5% to under 2.4% (1y fwd) down from 4.8% to 4.2% (UMich, July) 3️⃣ INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (ny fed SCE): up slightly to 3.6% (1y fwd) __ ¹nitter.cf/AnthPB/status/20515170… $TIP $STIP

…pretty much the definition of term premium – and little onus on inflation/inflation expectations or credit risk/fiscal sustainability: > "90% of the observed rise in the 10-year US Treasury since August 2020 has occurred in the three-day window around US [NFP] payroll reports or speeches by top Fed officials…which accounts for just 24% of trading days [which] are responsible for 81% of the rise in markets' expected average short-term rate over the next 10 years, which means this isn't about investors getting nervous about holding long-term debt and is instead about markets revising their view of short-term rates"¹ > "inflation expectations [have been] stable [so] long-term rates are primarily determined by ‘real’ forces such as the supply and demand for safe assets, demographics, and the rate of technological progress"² > Christensen and Rudebusch (2026)³ analyzed specific dates associated with major fiscal-policy developments to see if investors were demanding higher rates due to worsening fiscal prospects [and] revealed "no substantial evidence" that these fiscal events contributed to the rise – the trading windows around major fiscal policy announcements accounted for less than 20% of the total increase in long-term rates • 90.5% of the observed rise in $tnx • 91.3% of the observed rise in the nominal 5y5y forward rate • 81.0% of the observed rise in the average expected short rate over the next 10 years (bootstrapped) __ ¹nitter.cf/nicktimiraos/status/21… $irx $fvx $tyx ²cepr.org/voxeu/columns/anato… ³brookings.edu/wp-content/upl… $study

…dueling aphorisms for every boom, tho ymmv¹ – ‘XYZ is infused throughout the economy so ofc that sector should take asymmetric share of the benchmark index/earnings’: "transportation touches everything" $iyt "utilities touch everything" $xlu "consumer is everything" $xlp "energy is everything" $xle "technology is everything" $xlk "financials are everything" $xlf "real estate is everything" $xlre "materials are everything" $xlb "consumer is everything" $xly "communications is everything" $xlc "technology is everything" $xlk __ ¹nitter.cf/AnthPB/status/20036943… #concentration

$coin $nflx $nvda $tsm $uber all blew out the right shoulder of their failed h&s topping patterns – but not Monday… no, $mndy's all alone in the corner clearing its throat to start singing "head and shoulders knees and toes"… #technicals #charting

…re datacenter construction delays from supply chain shortages and bottlenecks: 🛠️ 30–50% of 2026CY datacenter pipeline unlikely to come online before 2026YE (vs 36%¹ in 2025CY)... ↳ 16GW announced for 2026CYe (140 projects total) 🟰 5GW currently under construction ➕ 11GW announced but not started ⚡️ "shortage of electrical equipment, such as transformers, switchgear and batteries… not enough domestic capacity to go around [so imports]… Electrical infrastructure adds up <10% of the total cost of the datacenter, but it’s impossible to build the operation without it"² __ ¹"in 2025, 26% of expected capacity slipped, and another 10% of projects pushed back their commercial operation dates without much notice" (sightlineclimate.com/researc…) ²bloomberg.com/news/features/…

the burden for tweeting/posting/publishing has increased considerably in past 4 years because AI – descriptive, not normative: 1️⃣ the bar for original, comprehensive ideas/insights has been raised considerably¹ 2️⃣ tolerance for poorly substantiated/sourced/researched analysis (even mis/disinformation) has lowered proportionally 3️⃣ if you don't feel the burden or manifestation #1 and #2, you're likely¹ either an entertainer; posting entertainment; grifter; ideologue; or exit liquidity for any of the former (and ymmv) __ ¹i.e. the expected bar for anyone competing on the serious analysis/insight axis has risen in absolute terms, albeit not necessarily relative terms because "leptokurtic distribution of truthiness": medium.com/adventures-in-con… ²few exceptions (e.g. if you're a primary source; have MNPI; etc), but I'd argue even those exceptions "feel the burden" because they've done the proof of work