The American household saves 2.8% of what it takes home. One bitcoin costs about $78,000. Do that division. Thirty-four years of setting aside everything you set aside, for one coin, assuming the price never moves again. And that is before tax, so the real number is worse.

At a 5.1% interest rate, refinancing $1 trillion in government debt costs approximately $51B annually in interest. That's $21B more than refinancing the same amount at 3%. The cost of debt matters enormously when a government already carries $40 trillion in obligations.

Bitcoin transaction fees depend primarily on transaction size in virtual bytes, not the dollar value being transferred. Moving $10M in one simple transaction can cost less than moving $100 using dozens of UTXOs.

September CPI arrives tomorrow. A stronger inflation reading could keep real borrowing costs elevated, while a weaker reading might ease pressure on Treasury yields. Bitcoin trades in a financial system where the price of capital matters, even though its own monetary policy doesn't change.

There's an important difference between borrowing against Bitcoin and borrowing to purchase Bitcoin. In the first case, you already own the asset and use it as collateral. In the second, you're financing an asset you don't yet own outright.

The difficulty adjustment is one of Bitcoin's most underrated inventions. Without it, adding more mining power would accelerate Bitcoin issuance. Instead, more hashpower eventually just makes the same bitcoin harder to produce.

More demand for oil eventually gets more wells drilled. More demand for gold makes marginal mines economical. A company with expensive shares can issue more of them. Bitcoin doesn’t give a shit about demand.

More Bitcoin mining does not create more Bitcoin. More hashpower increases competition for the same scheduled issuance.

Bitcoin is around $85K today. Oct. 4, 2025: $122,416 Oct. 4, 2023: $27,799 Oct. 4, 2022: $20,349 Oct. 4, 2021: $49,242 Down roughly 30% in one year. Up more than 3x in three years and more than 4x in four. Increase your time horizon and HODL.

So excited for this week

$2.65B flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in September, equal to roughly 70 days of new miner supply at today’s price. One single session accounted for about 26 days of issuance.

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