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Joined January 2025
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The Fed's dot plot could be on its way out.
@ctorresreporter & Ellen Meade explore how adopting a market-implied interest rate path could solve Kevin Warsh’s communication dilemma.
Read more: anderseninstitute.org/choosi…
The risks go beyond financial leverage:
- Regulation and legal liability
- Open-weight competition and tech disruption
- Power, chip and supply chain limits
- Data centers becoming a midterm political issue
- Delayed frontier lab IPOs
Markets are sending mixed signals.
Forward P/Es look fine. Long-run valuation gauges are above dot-com levels.
Hyperscaler CDS spreads are widening, and rising rates make the financing harder.
Transformative technology doesn’t guarantee outsized investor returns, at least not in the short to medium term.
How the financial cycle ends matters more than how the tech transforms the economy.
Full analysis from @fmnatalucci: anderseninstitute.org/the-ai…
Three features make this cycle powerful and fragile:
1. Circular financing: chipmakers and hyperscalers backstop the labs that buy from them
2. A widening range of instruments: bonds, private credit, GPU-backed loans, SPVs
3. A wider investor base: pensions, insurers, sovereigns, retail
The internet boom ran on intangibles and asset-light companies. This one runs on physical capital: data centers, networks, energy.
And the financing is changing too. Hyperscalers funded phase one with free cash flow. Now they’re turning to credit.
The AI ecosystem is estimated to be about:
40% of the S&P 500
almost 50% of IG issuance this year
nearly 90% of venture capital
That makes AI financing a huge macro bet: funding compute supply before demand has materialized.
Why do banks avoid borrowing from the Federal Reserve’s Discount Window, even during liquidity crunches?
In a new note, Jim Clouse breaks down the history, economics, and math behind discount window stigma.
Why are banks still reluctant to use the Fed's discount window during stress?
Our new research explores how structural shifts like FHLBank growth and liquidity rules impact borrowing stigma and financial stability:
anderseninstitute.org/stigma…
Truman appointed Martin expecting a point man at the Fed. Martin became a staunch defender of its independence instead, even after the "woodshed" visit to LBJ's ranch.
Without him, the 1951 Accord might have stayed just a piece of paper.
anderseninstitute.org/when-h…
What happens to U.S.-European diplomacy and Western alliances after Trump?
This week on Global Rewire, Viviana Mazza on the domestic realignments reshaping America and what they mean for Europe.
anderseninstitute.org/the-po…
Warsh worries about a "hall of mirrors" between the Fed and markets. Martin's 1950s subcommittee had a similar worry that Fed intervention distorted market signals.
Its work led to the "bills only" policy. Jim Clouse on the parallels:
anderseninstitute.org/when-h…
Stablecoin supply has been flat since October 2025, but ~$20B moved out of DeFi and into exchanges and wallets.
Venue matters for run risk too. In March 2023, exchanges held 15% of USDC supply but drove 40% of outflows.
anderseninstitute.org/mappin…
About 80% of China's crude imports pass through the Strait of Malacca. The Northern Sea Route avoids Malacca and the Taiwan Strait.
The trade-off is dependence on Russian permits and icebreakers. Why the Arctic is emerging as a strategic bet:
anderseninstitute.org/how-a-…
Russia operates roughly 45 icebreakers, eight of them nuclear-powered. The U.S. has three.
In the Arctic, the chokepoint is harnessing an icebreaker fleet and the permits Moscow issues.
anderseninstitute.org/how-a-…
Chris Rokos is the U.K.'s third-highest taxpayer. His move to Greece leaves a £330M hole in public finances.
The top 1% pay over a quarter of U.K. income tax, so a few departures do outsized damage.
anderseninstitute.org/the-u-…
Viviana Mazza has covered the White House, presidential campaigns and international summits. Her book, L'America che verrà. Dopo Trump, looks at how the political landscape has permanently evolved.
Our interview with Mazza on the latest Global Rewire:
anderseninstitute.org/the-po…
A heavy debt load. Elevated inflation. Pressure on Fed independence. A new chair with ties to the administration launches a balance sheet task force.
That's Warsh in 2026. It's also William McChesney Martin in 1951.
anderseninstitute.org/when-h…
The PanStar Acro left Busan Aug. 22 and reached Felixstowe Sept. 12 via the Northern Sea Route, the first South Korean container ship to make the crossing.
How far can a U.S. ally lean on Russian infrastructure?
anderseninstitute.org/how-a-…