Global macro and cross-asset thematics. Rates, currencies, equities, and other sources of unnecessary stress.
London, UK
Joined August 2021
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AP Research retweeted
What is AI really capable of in bio?
To separate hype from reality, we spent 3 months working firsthand with @AnthropicAI's internal research model to see if it could create an experimental scorpion antivenom.
Introducing Citrini Therapeutics.
citriniresearch.com/p/citrin…
AP Research retweeted
Very good piece here.
The interesting macro stories aren’t limited to Europe and the US.
Brazilian assets have repriced sharply after Bolsonaro’s first-round win. With a presidency increasingly priced in, the next leg of the Brazil trade hinges on one thing:
Delivery.
alphapicks.co.uk/p/buying-th…
AP Research retweeted
The interesting macro stories aren’t limited to Europe and the US.
Brazilian assets have repriced sharply after Bolsonaro’s first-round win. With a presidency increasingly priced in, the next leg of the Brazil trade hinges on one thing:
Delivery.
alphapicks.co.uk/p/buying-th…
AP Research retweeted
The BoJ’s balancing act isn’t getting any easier. October hike expectations are fading, December is coming into focus, and the yen outlook remains murky.
Our latest revisits the dilemma we flagged in September and the catalysts ahead.
ap-fx.co.uk/p/no-rush-in-tok…
AP Research retweeted
Everyone has been a Brazil expert for the past 24 hours. Bolsonaro will likely go all the way, while high real yields and improving fundamentals leave plenty to like in BRL.
Latest from the team: ap-fx.co.uk/p/brls-bolsonaro…
AP Research retweeted
Bonds Are The Worst ™️
Even @AlphaPicks told ya so
AP Research retweeted
No Country for Low Yields
Higher yields are starting to expose where the global debt burden is weakest. Yet the equity right tail remains alive. Positioning has reset, leadership remains concentrated, and the pain trade in Q4 may still be higher.
alphapicks.co.uk/p/no-countr…
AP Research retweeted
Political risk is already finding its way into French assets, despite the election being seven months away.
But before then, France has a budget to pass. Amid deteriorating public finances, Macron’s final finance bill could prove his most perilous yet.
alphapicks.co.uk/p/he-who-pa…
AP Research retweeted
new infographics just dropped
hyperscaler plumbing
conks.plumbing/p/infographic…
AP Research retweeted
will AI kill us in 10 years… buddy, the bond market is going to kill us next week.
AP Research retweeted
Had a great time chatting with @AlphaPicks research yesterday about all things macro— through the lenses of FX.
We covered a whole lot of ground from the Fed, to the ECB, BOJ and BOE— with some lessons on trade studying unique to FX along the way.
Linked below ⬇️
AP Research retweeted
Be there!!
Joining @AahanPrometheus @prometheusmacro at 17:00pm BST (12:00pm EDT) to talk all things markets.
Live on Substack.
AP Research retweeted
new plumbing post just dropped
the Repo Dark Spot, Part II
conks.plumbing/p/the-repo-da…
AP Research retweeted
Seeing as everyone and their dentist is short bonds, here's something to chew on:
The current spread between US2Y and FF is at its historical peak, including the marvelous post 1994-95 soft-landing - except if Warsh&Co. are about to *start* a new hiking cycle.
AP Research retweeted
No clearer pulse check on the US long end than Bessent’s latest ‘up to $6bn’ being brushed off yesterday by PMIs and oil price action.
The 30yr is only heading one way…
ap-fx.co.uk/p/the-us-30yr-is…
