NYC
Joined October 2024
Rule 1 of #optionstrading: Hope for gamma, prepare for theta #0dte $spx #options $spy $qqq
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the market made people believe that hedge fund deleveraging is bullish $spy $qqq
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funny how they call companies like $MPC or $XOM old economy stocks. You don't have #AI without #energy
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THE OPENING GAMBIT | WEEKEND WATCH — OCT. 11 • Riyadh airport hit twice in two days. Saturday’s Houthi strike killed at least 12 and wounded 309. Sunday’s projectile remains unidentified. Saudi jets backing a counteroffensive in Yemen. $USO $BNO $XLE $FANG $OXY • Trump announces an immediate Russia–Ukraine “energy ceasefire.” Moscow has not confirmed. Follows Friday’s announced deal for roughly 13.5M barrels of Russian diesel to enter global markets initially. $USO $MPC $VLO $PSX • India launches emergency rupee defense as currency nears 97 per dollar. RBI opens a dollar window for state oil companies and tightens FX restrictions—its strongest intervention since 2013. $INDA $EPI $IBN $HDB • IEA urges governments to accelerate pledged diesel releases and assess additional supply ahead of its Oct. 15 board meeting. Hormuz disruption and attacks on Saudi infrastructure compound the shortage. $MPC $VLO $PSX $DINO • French debt stress deepens. Bundesbank warns investors are growing nervous about government borrowing. NatWest exits U.S. and European sovereign debt markets. Fiscal strains take focus ahead of IMF/World Bank meetings. $EWQ $EUFN $DB $NWG Sources: Bloomberg / WSJ.
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Last 48 hours of trading has been nothing more than a rotation into sectors/segments hit by rates ($RSP, $XLP, $DVY) and out of $QQQ. That comes on the back of two strong, back to back bond auctions. $spy $tlt
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Underlying trend within #smallcaps is to buy profitability Below is @Bloomberg's EPS revisions factor, which measures how excited analysts are getting about earnings for the S&P 600 Small Cap Index. $IWM @ 200-day moving average
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Russell 2000 Index @ 200-day simple moving $IWM #smallcaps
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THE OPENING GAMBIT | OCT. 8 • Brent +5% to $105+ on reports of potential U.S. strikes on Iran. 10Y Treasury yield hits 5.32%. $USO $XLE $XOM $CVX • European banks extend losses after Wednesday’s 3.3% drop. SocGen down 26% from August peak; Deutsche Bank down 18% from its high. $DB $EUFN • Fed’s Waller expects additional hikes, says consecutive meetings aren’t necessary. $SPY $QQQ $TLT • ECB minutes show growth concerns accompanied its second hike in response to the energy shock. $FEZ $VGK • PBOC rules out competitive yuan devaluation ahead of EU trade talks. $FXI $KWEB $BABA • Germany lifts 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% from 0.5%, citing exports and government spending. $EWG • PepsiCo cuts core constant-currency EPS growth guidance to 1%–2% from the low end of 4%–6%. Higher costs, slower consumer recovery. $PEP • OpenAI reportedly discussing a $30B raise at a $1.4T valuation. $MSFT
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$NQ_F volume profile 10/1-present VAH = 31,415 $QQQ
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$39B 10Y auction: • Rate: 5.30% (highest since 2000) • Bid-to-cover: 2.77x (avg 2.54x) • Foreign/indirect: 80% (avg 74%) • Dealers: 2.5% (avg 8.8%) • Cleared 1.7bp below expected Translation: buyers outnumbered bonds nearly 3 to 1. #tlt #interestrates $spy
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$NQ_F / $ES_F 30 min chart 28-period rsi $qqq $spy
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Bonds said "We are the house" #bessent $TLT $SpY $qqq
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$NVDA 70% sales growth forecast... s...e...v...e...n...t...y percent
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In 2008, the $QQQ topped out in the summer, correcting ~14%. It then rallied ~12%, with haste as if a generational buying opportunity would pass everyone by in August... It then fell almost 50% shortly thereafter.
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Guess Morgan Stanley was right… we peaked $mu $skhy
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#oil just hit 83 in the post market. #oott $spy $QQQ
Notice #trump made sure to get oil from 93 to 78 for #FederalReserve to postpone the inevitable rate hike. I can’t prove it… but I know it’s true Btw… $USO looks good here #oott
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What happened to July bullish seasonality? July is one of the most bullish months of the year… this in and of itself is an indicator something is wrong $qqq
Never mind "worst July since 2004." Now, QQQ is not that far away from it's worst July EVER. A close this Friday of 672.89 or lower gets you there.
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