@AllForProgress_

For Progress. https://nitter.cf/t.co/FCnXMmTdhg https://nitter.cf/t.co/4m51qLkh7i

Joined July 2022
For the last year I've been helming the development of Progress, a new British political movement beyond left and right, for whom I have been acting as founder and leader. Today we are publicly releasing our policy testament, and with it, introducing our party and organisation for the first time. If you've been reading this feed over the past fortnight you'll have some idea of what we think is wrong with Britain. The tweets were not an exercise in commentary. They were the opening argument of a case we intend to prosecute through the coming years, made by a group of highly able everyday citizens who have spent years looking at the parlous state of the country in which they live and feel summoned to duty. Progress' philosophy is a best-of-both-worlds approach to the mixture of political spectrum positions. We believe in industrial development, real wage increases for the worker, skills and training, healthy public services (including and especially the NHS), and giving everyone in Britain a fair stake in their society; we will do more for working people on these issues than Labour have in living memory. We will do more to secure Britain's streets from crime than the Tories have in a century. We are committed to answering the public's repeat and clear wishes on immigration in a way that is both uncompromised and robust, as well as utterly civilised. We are in step, and side-by-side, with the median voter on these issues because Progress was founded by the median voter, for the median voter. We are the proud and natural home for the politically homeless. You may ask, "Why not Reform or Restore or the Greens?" In short, we at Progress understand implicitly the scale of the problems that face our country. We know that only organisations capable of the highest performance have a chance of wresting those problems to the ground. We look at Reform and Restore and the Greens and, like you, are left in no doubt that they are incapable of the level of performance required. They are conventional political organisations capable only of conventional things. Britain needs something far greater than that. The policy testament we are sharing with you today is the richest, longest, and most comprehensive integrated vision for the future of Britain written yet this century, a document that will continue to evolve as our understanding of how to best serve our people grows. We invite you to read it. It was written by people who take you and your needs extremely seriously. And yet, for all that, half a million words of policy is the easy part. The real challenge comes now, in building a political machine up and down the country not merely capable, in time, of contesting elections, but capable in the immediate term of providing value to the communities in which they are embedded. This is the essence of our aim: not to beg trust but to win it through service, without being asked and without asking anything in return. At Progress, we call this 'CIV', or 'Community Investment'. Our work may elapse over a generation before it bears fruit. Fate may intervene to bring it to resolution, good or bad, long before that. In the chaos of our world there's no way to know. But what is in our control is our drive and ability to build, and "build" is what we're doing and what we’re going to do. We require community leaders, active and would-be, to help support our existing CIVs up and down the country and build more. We require experts and technicians of every stripe. Outsized and unusually shaped talent is the alpha and the omega of our organisation. We require, above all else, any and everyone who has looked at what Britain has become and concluded that responsibility for fixing it must lay with the people, not with a professional failure class. Never doubt that, as dark as things seem in this land of ours, there are those fighting, hard and earnest, to right the course. If you’re stirred by duty, if you wish to work with a British political organisation that can do things others can't, then come and give us your hand. It Can Be Done. progressforbritain.org/
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Police in England and Wales recorded 74,727 rapes in the year to March. It is the highest figure in the country's history, 4% up on the year before, and it accounts for a 3rd of all recorded sexual offences. It's interesting that we had a national-panic-alarm-alert on Friday for the sake of scolding the public about disposable barbecues, but not one for this figure. It's interesting what such self-professed instruments of global humanism like the UN and Human Rights Watch will deign to declare humanitarian crises, and what it won't. When an estimated 20,000 women were raped in Kosovo, Human Rights Watch called it a weapon of ethnic cleansing. When 20,000 to 50,000 were raped across 3 years of war in Bosnia, The Hague prosecuted it as an instrument of genocide, and Europe swore its oaths of 'never again' once again. But England and Wales are recording more rapes than either war, every 12 months, the highest figures in our history. A number of that size has architecture behind it: three load-bearing walls. The first is a migration system run without the most basic accounting. What little the state knows about who commits sexual violence, it publishes only when forced: Ministry of Justice data, extracted by freedom of information request, shows foreign nationals took 26% of convictions for sexual assaults on women in 2024, against 10.9% of the population, and that foreign national convictions for sexual offences grew 62% across 3 years while the British figure grew 39%. Campaigners put certain nationalities at up to 20x the British per-capita rate; critics attack their population estimates; but even on the critics' own corrected arithmetic, the over-representation among sexual violence statistics stands at 3x or more. The row is unresolvable by design, because no official series exists. In the state's own conviction records, 614 sexual offenders have their nationality marked "unknown". Not one dataset in the official architecture connects the 74,727 to the immigration status of the men responsible. And while it declines to count, the state disperses. Middlesbrough and Hartlepool carry among the highest concentrations of supported asylum seekers in England, placed there because the housing is cheapest, by the same contracting machine that once painted the doors of its Middlesbrough properties an identical red. Those two towns now top the national table for recorded sexual offences. The state that arranged the co-location cannot tell you, and has chosen never to learn, what exact relationship the two facts bear to each other. I can't tell you; the point is that no one can (except perhaps the women who live there). Whatever, our Prime Minister's answer, delivered this week, has been to extend the dispersal of undocumented men who've entered our house illegally to nicer postcodes. The second wall is the dereliction of the forces meant to secure the safety of women. The patch with the highest sexual-offence rate in the country was policed, through the relevant years, by Cleveland Police: theirs is the first force in the history of inspection to be rated inadequate at everything, "rudderless" by its own staff's account, and in special measures for 4 years. Middlesbrough alone recorded 349 rapes last year. This column has documented what the wider institution believes: there is always an officer for the tweet, the reassurance visit and the awareness campaign, and a 97-in-100 no-charge rate for the woman with the file. A force reflects what its masters consider unforgivable, and for 20 years the unforgivable thing has been appearing harsh, rather than failing the innocent. The third wall is what Britain has done with its most vulnerable children, who are the next generation of these statistics on both sides. 84% of children's homes are privately owned. 9 of the 10 largest providers answer to private equity. The biggest 15 ran operating margins of 22.6% on public money. A placement can cost the council more per child than Eton charges, for outcomes measured in missing-person reports! 41% of England's children in care, more than 30,000 of them, are placed outside their home authority, shipped along the same cheap-housing gradient as the asylum contracts, into the same towns, where hundreds of children have gone missing from their homes. Looked-after girls have been over-represented in the grooming inquiries from Rotherham onward, and the Casey audit found the ethnicity of perpetrators missing from 2 in 3 of the case files. Below the large corporate groups, even the ownership of the homes is opaque. The state cannot say who profits from a given child, and has chosen never to learn that either. Three systems and one signature. Each concentrates its risk on women and girls with the least power to object, and each keeps no records in exactly the places a record would demand action. The blindness is a decision, renewed annually, by a class that has judged the cost of knowing higher than the cost of the women; a state that can fine a widow for a television licence could count the nationality of a convicted rapist any afternoon it chose. Progress has written the repairs into law we intend to pass. Our Open Justice Act prohibits the reporting restrictions that conceal the demographic characteristics of offenders and the patterns of their offending: the counting becomes mandatory. Our sentencing legislation raises statutory minimums for sexual offences. Our Bill of Rights removes the deportation resistance that keeps foreign offenders in this country after conviction, and PP1 rebuilds the enforcement and removals machinery around a principle stated in our programme: a country that cannot enforce its own borders has an open door with a suggestion box. Zero-Crime Britain is the ambition, and it is measured in Japanese numbers, never in improvements on last year's disgrace. 74,727. If the women of this country were a foreign population, what Britain tolerates being done to them annually would sit before an international tribunal. But they are our own; the state's answer is a filing system built so that they can be easily lost in it. Come and help us tear it out. Progress is where the rebuilding has started, and the safety of our people is a sacrosanct principle, load-bearing in the design.
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In the 24 months since Labour came to power, we've seen; • Employer National Insurance increased from 13.8% to 15%. • The employer NI threshold cut from £9,100 to £5,000. • Income Tax and National Insurance thresholds frozen until 2031. • Capital Gains Tax increased from 10% and 20% to 18% and 24%. • Business Asset Disposal Relief increased from 10% to 14%, then 18%. • Investors’ Relief increased and its lifetime allowance cut from £10 million to £1 million. • Carried interest taxation increased and moved towards the Income Tax regime. • Dividend tax rates increased by two percentage points. • Savings-income tax rates increased by two percentage points. • Property-income tax rates increased by two percentage points. • Most unused pension funds brought into the Inheritance Tax net. • Agricultural Property Relief restricted. • Business Property Relief restricted. • Inheritance Tax thresholds frozen for longer. • The non-dom regime replaced with a more extensive residence-based system. • VAT imposed on private school fees. • Business-rates relief removed from private schools. • Stamp Duty increased on second homes and buy-to-let properties. • The Furnished Holiday Lettings tax regime abolished. • Pension salary-sacrifice benefits capped at £2,000 before National Insurance applies. • The Cash ISA allowance cut to £12,000 for most under-65s. • A 22% charge introduced on interest from cash held inside non-cash ISAs. • Restrictions introduced on transfers and cash-like holdings within ISAs. • The Energy Profits Levy increased and extended. • Investment allowances for oil and gas producers reduced. • A new Vaping Products Duty introduced. • Tobacco duties increased above inflation. • Vehicle Excise Duty increased for many new cars. • Electric vehicles brought into the Vehicle Excise Duty system. • A new mileage tax announced for electric and plug-in hybrid cars. • Air Passenger Duty increased. • Climate Change Levy rates increased. • Plastic Packaging Tax increased. • A new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism introduced. • Making Tax Digital extended to more landlords and self-employed people. Together they represent one of the biggest transfers of wealth from households and businesses to the Treasury in decades - with no noticeable improvement in public services. Whether you're a business owner employing staff, a parent paying school fees, a farmer planning succession, an entrepreneur building wealth or simply someone trying to save for retirement... You keep less of what you earn. You keep less of what you invest. You leave less to your family. Death by a thousand cuts is becoming tax policy.
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The headline from yesterday's ONS release reads...ok, at a glance: GDP up 0.4% in Q2, in line with forecasts, 1.2% up on the year. The composition is where the truth lives. Services drifted up 0.5%. Construction managed 0.3%. But production, the making of physical things, the activity that built every town this column has ever mourned, registered zero. April shrank outright; May was flat and got revised down; and then the entire quarter was rescued by a 0.3% jump in June. And half the growth that did arrive came from a single industry. Information and communications contributed more than any other sector, on the back of £22.1bn of capital spending on machinery and equipment in the quarter, which the ONS attributes largely to computer hardware. Everyone in the industry knows what that hardware is for. Strip the quarter to its skeleton and the British economy in mid-2026 is a services sector treading water while datacentre kit, designed in California and fabricated in Taiwan, is bolted into racks on the M4 corridor. 0.4% is above zero, and above zero has become the British definition of triumph. The new Prime Minister inherits the print 6 weeks into a non-honeymoon conducted at the pace of an announcement a day. Highly 'productive', but then Whitehall announcements are a services industry too; they also add nothing to actual production. We've said it a million times before - lower productivity makes you poorer, and as such your being-poorer is a matter of central government choice. A factory here pays more for its electricity than a factory anywhere else in the developed world. An employer here pays a tax premium on every person he hires. A producer who wants a new shed enters a planning process we have measured, in this column, in units of years-per-runway-metre. Each of these is a policy with an author, and the authors' economy, the seminar and the podcast and the consultancy retainer, sits comfortably inside the 0.5% of services drift. Production is something that happens to other people, in towns the authors visit for by-elections. Progress wrote its answer before this print and every recent print like it. E1 delivers the cheapest energy on Earth within 10 years, because nothing is reshored to the dearest socket in the developed world. E2 builds Prosperity Zones where a manufacturer signs once and finds the grid connection, the consent and the tax treatment already agreed, so that his first year is spent manufacturing. E4 makes the default answer to a factory yes. Britain has the producers; what it has lacked, for decades, is a state that wants production, and the lack has lasted so long that a quarterly 0.0 no longer even makes the bulletins. It should make yours. If you make things for a living, or would like to live in a country that does, the 0.0 is your entire political situation in a single digit. We are building the government that reads it the way you do. Bring your trade to Progress; the rebuild will need it.
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And so history that began as farce has repeated as tragedy, with Jason Arday being found dead at an address in south London on Friday. 41 years old, and what must have been nine truly and overwhelmingly agonising days after his resignation of his Cambridge professorship, and his fellowship, at Jesus College. Arday systematically defrauded one of the country's great institutions, and by extension the hundreds-to-thousands of individuals who gave him work, tenure, funding and honours on the basis of his fraudulent claims and ostensible plagiarism. The scale of his astonishing deceit became a matter of the public's appalled fascination; so did his and his institution's attempts to fight a rearguard of intimidation against the people who blew the whistle on him and on them. He lost, for he could not possibly win having sinned so prolifically; and he has chosen suicide (which, whatever you are told, is no coward's way out; of all the vices which he may be duly assigned, a man with this level of chutzpah, to live as though there is no such thing as a lie, cannot be faulted for lacking a certain, very twisted kind of bravery) rather than living with the consequences. His family's first statement speaks of a "campaign of harassment". However intense, what dogged Arday was mere scrutiny; scrutiny arriving late, against the odds, of claims he had spent a career inventing and inviting the world to applaud. To those who say Arday was treated unduly harshly because he was a black man, we remember the death of UNCW's Mike Adams, the North Carolina criminology professor hounded from his post in 2020, who died alone and uncomforted of suicide for the far lesser crime of writing tweets that his co-faculty did not approve of. He is but a single example among many individuals likewise pushed out of their jobs by Metropolitan class cadres in the heady early 2020s for the sake of political differences. Many remain broken and in intractable career compromise. Without face and without crown. Few-to-none of them have had a single powerful champion declare for them, let alone the fully-mobilisied mixed-institutional machinery Arday found were out in his defence. I read and then lost track of a brilliant post this morning contemplating the lack of recourse available nowadays to those who destroy their own lives through errant decision-making; the absence of a road by which those who are in disgrace, but not in jail, might make amends and support themselves and their families. In the past, a man who broke his share of the social contract could join the forces, or enlist on a ship. Nowadays cancellation, even where ostensibly justified, is too absolute to allow for much of this. I thought the point was extremely well made. For people who have put themselves into such social disgrace as ruins their credibility and jaundices the public's ability to trust them, as Arday's deeds did him, there ought to be channels into work that serve as both life-preserver and penance-propulsion. The work should be incredibly tough; the kind that obliges the wrongdoer to begin reflecting harshly on the decisions that led him there, rather than merely leaving him space to do so at his leisure; and with it the means to the restoration of honour and self-respect that can beget proper rehabilitation. Infinitely better that Arday have had such a path open to him, and taken it, than have ended his life. Arday's fraudulent career was both an institutional and a personal failing. It was rooted in Arday's defects of character, and in the defects of character possessed individually by the preposterous individuals who enabled him; people who, in having doubtless passed over black men and women of real talent and serious intellect to hand a silly larker like Arday the privileges he enjoyed, must be reckoned with not just in their incompetence but in an especially bizarre kind of racism, the kind most often exhibited by the Metropolitan class types who would most loudly forswear racism as the European original sin. There will be no posthumous ransom due for any of this, however. "Abet and tolerate fraud, lies, and career-grade dishonesty, or suicides may result" stands in particular ignominy among manipulative sentiments; and manipulative sentiments are at the heart of this matter. They are what Arday preyed upon to advance himself, and what he and his associates deployed to try to protect the racket they had formed. There must always be consequences; and the higher your station, and the more egregious your corruptions, the harsher they must be. It is a terrible shame, for the sake of the family he left behind, that Arday was not able to face up to those demands, and pay those penalties. Had he done so, there is no reason not to suspect that he, like many who had done wrong before him, might have come good.
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No, I’m sorry, you don’t get to play the race card. We don’t tolerate frauds in high places in this county, even if they are white men with short hair - which is why we still constantly remind you of how you falsified evidence to start a war two decades ago.
I never met Jason Arday, and know nothing about him beyond what I have read, seen and heard in the media. As the debate around him raged in recent weeks, I stayed out of it, precisely because it struck me as one of those occasional frenzies in which facts get lost and humans cease to be treated as humans. I now wish I had reached out to him, tried to encourage him that “this too shall pass.” Many people today, those who knew him above all but also many like me who didn’t, will be feeling sadness and anger that this has all led to his death, a family suddenly without a father, parents without a son. None of us will ever know exactly what was going through his mind, but it is hard to disagree with @MayorofLondon that Jason Arday faced “an unacceptable public hounding and campaign of abuse … pernicious public shaming that other people in his position wouldn’t have faced.” Whatever the truth of the allegations against him, would he have suffered such a hounding had he been white, with short hair? I doubt it. The zeal with which the Trumpian anti-DEI brigade in the U.K. leapt on this story to try to push back the wheel of progress towards genuine equality was horrible. Again, Sadiq is right to say “His death was a tragedy but it should be a wake-up call for all of us.” RIP Jason. And to all of us, if ever you think someone you know may have cause to be suicidal, reach out to them.
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On a Thursday morning in April, in a theatre at St Bartholomew's Hospital, a 76-year-old retired detective named Ian MacLeod had a lung cancer operation performed by a surgeon sitting several metres away from him. Sasha Stamenkovic, Director of Robotic Surgery at Barts Health, worked the operation through the da Vinci 5, the most advanced surgical robot in the world: his hands on a console, the machine's arms at the table, a high-definition 3D camera inside MacLeod's chest, instruments moving with a precision no human wrist can match. MacLeod was the first patient in the NHS to have lung cancer surgery this way. 30 minutes after returning to the ward, he was on his feet. He left hospital with a single stitch. Inside a week he was driving his wife to the garden centre for coffee. He had survived cancer before, through old-fashioned keyhole surgery, and remembers a recovery of a different order; this time, he said, the whole thing "didn't faze" him. He is a volunteer diving coach from Romford, and is back at the pool doing what he loves best. 4 in 5 NHS trusts still keep some patient records on pen and paper. The government's contribution to the robotic future MacLeod has already lived is a target: 9 in 10 keyhole operations robot-assisted by 2035, a roadmap pointed at a decade hence, announced about a procedure a Barts surgeon simply performed in April. The men and women at the theatre table are living in 2026; the apparatus above them is filing in 1974 and planning for 2035. This keeps happening, and I keep writing it, because it is the single most consistent fact about this country: the excellence is from below. The fusion engine ignites in Bletchley, the interceptor arrives ahead of schedule, the robotic programme at Barts runs a world-class theatre, and none of it is the system working; it is particular, brilliant people succeeding inside a system that files their triumphs under communications opportunities. Our NHS programme starts from that fact: strip the apparatus back to basics, pay the people who carry the excellence properly, and get everything that is neither care nor competence out of their way. Somewhere in Romford this week, a 76-year-old man who has beaten cancer twice is coaching people to dive. The hands that saved him are British, the theatre was British, the nerve was all his. This column holds the country's failures up weekly; accuracy about what still works matters just as much, because the rebuild will be made from exactly this material.
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On Sunnyside, in the village of Aughton in West Lancashire, stands a house with a £180,000 extension containing a kitchen, the boiler, and a bedroom partitioned down the middle for 2 of Suzie Cavadino's 4 children. By order of the state, she must now demolish it, and with it, very possibly, her ability to keep the house at all. Cavadino bought the house about 20 years ago, moving out from Bootle. She decided to replace her conservatory with a 2-storey extension, and her builders advised her she would not need planning permission, a sentence that functions in modern Britain as a kind of dramatic foreshadowing that ought to come with its own characteristic 4/4 string ostinato in D minor. The work finished in December 2022. The council issued an enforcement notice. The Planning Inspectorate upheld it, the window for a High Court challenge closed in December, the extended compliance period ran out on 24 April, and the order is now live. And the order says 'Tear it Down'. The inspector, KA Taylor, gave the reason in a single sentence: the extension is "causing harm to the character and appearance of the host property and surrounding area." The host property is her house. She is the host. The state has appointed itself protector of her home's character, against her, at the price of her home. The building half of the planning system approved 39,170 homes in a recent quarter, which is among the worst on record; the average project waits 475 days between application and a spade in the ground; approvals for larger housing schemes have collapsed 43.8% since 2016/17. That half is a ruin. The un-building half, the enforcement arm, though, works beautifully: it has pursued one mother in one village through 4 years of process, to the brink of homelessness, over an aesthetic opinion about a kitchen. A machine that cannot produce a home has kept one muscle in perfect condition, and it is the muscle that deletes them. The belief underneath is legible in Taylor's sentence. The drawing in the file is the reality; the family living in the building is the irregularity. Nobody gains a home when this order is executed. 5 people lose 1. The net housing contribution of the whole exercise is minus one bedroom, minus one kitchen, minus one boiler, delivered at public expense by professionals, and everyone involved will consider the system to have functioned. Under Progress' Planning Liberation Act the default answer to "can I build?" becomes yes, and the burden of proof moves to the objector to demonstrate specific, material harm. "Character and appearance of the host property" does not survive that test, and was never meant to; a family's home is not the state's aesthetic project. We will build a planning system that treats the creation of homes as an act of national value, not a harm to be grudgingly tolerated, and leaves the Suzie Cavadinos of England in peace in the houses they paid for. Her deadline has passed. The machine is moving. If reading that puts a knot in your stomach, good; the knot is correct. Progress is being built by people who felt it and decided the machine, and the class that runs it, should be frightened of the public again, and there is room beside them for you.
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As of the beginning of August, the Renters' Rights Act is in force. Section 21 is abolished. Every tenancy in the country became periodic in May; rent in advance is now banned; and taking an offer above the advertised rent is banned. The most tenant-protective statute in British legal history is now fully armed and operational. The first results are in, and they're arriving this week through the trade press. Knight Frank, reporting on the lettings market where data lands fastest, says the Act is, to the surprise of no one bar the people who drew it up, backfiring. Rents in prime outer London is up 3.2% in a year, new rental listings running 14% below the 5-year average, landlords selling up under the combined weight of the Act, the margins and the looming EPC deadline. One detail from their lettings desks is worth the whole white paper: with bidding wars banned, landlords have stopped pricing to attract offers and started, in the agency's delicate phrase, "taking a more confident approach to pricing". The ban on paying over the asking rent has simply increased rent prices. And the listings that are growing, up 19% on the 5-year average, sit above £1,000 a week: the cheap end of the market is being priced out. Every landlord body in the country told them this would happen in consultation, for years: make tenancies harder to end and the marginal landlord exits; ban the pricing mechanism and prices get set defensively; pile on standards with deadlines and the oldest, cheapest stock gets sold rather than upgraded. The people who wrote the Act believe housing is a distribution problem, that a statute can offset the fixed-in-stone hardships produced by a housing shortage, and that the landlord is just a controllable utility. But the landlord is not. And the tenant who pays is the marginal one, every time. When a tenancy is nearly impossible to end, the rational landlord underwrites like a bank: the applicant with the thin file, the CCJ from 2021, the new job, the dog, the kids, is politely declined in favour of the safest professional couple in the queue. New families are put at a disadvantage to the single; the old favoured over the young. The Act's authors have made the strong tenant a little stronger and the weak tenant near-homeless, which is the reliable signature of Metropolitan lawmaking: the cost lands on the people who least deserve to have to pay it. Rents rise for one reason that survives all the commentary: there are not enough homes, and the state has made building them close to illegal. Approvals for housing schemes of 10 or more homes have collapsed 43.8% since 2016/17, to their lowest level in over a decade; in a single recent quarter England approved just 39,170 homes. The average development waits 475 days between submitting a planning application and starting on site. You cannot regulate your way to cheap rent inside that arithmetic; you can only rearrange who gets hurt. Progress will attack the arithmetic. Under our Planning Liberation Act the default answer to "can I build?" becomes yes; the burden of proof falls on the objector; no minor application takes longer than 90 days and no major one longer than 6 months, enforced by deemed consent when the clock runs out; judicial review of planning is restricted to genuine points of law with costs against failed challengers. Build until the landlord competes for the tenant, and every protection this Act pretends to offer arrives by itself, priced in nobody's rent: that is the only tenants' rights programme that has ever worked anywhere on Earth. A renter's monthly statement is the truest political document in Britain just now. If yours keeps saying what the podium says cannot be happening, stop waiting for the 4th relaunch of the people who did this. Come and build the surplus with us instead; Progress has the drawings ready.
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The Burnham government is going to set new high-watermarks in failure, and they will put paid to the old Metropolitan class consensus for good, while also putting the final nail in the coffin of Labour. This week we saw the era of the Small Boats end and the era of the Big Boats begin. A Mega-dinghy arrived at Dover carrying 230 illegal migrants. That's 15 metres of factory-made inflatable, ordered from manufacturers in China, built for exactly this: the largest vessel ever during the entire crossing era. The record it broke, 165 aboard, was set only in July 2026. French coastal authorities had counted 9 of these mega-dinghies even before the one that capsized on 4 August with 173 people on it. 900 arrivals landed in 3 days. In fact, Channel smuggling is currently the only sector in Britain posting double-digit productivity growth. When a 40-man dinghy failed, 40 lives were in the water; the new model wagers 200 at a time, and the men selling the tickets have priced that in with the total equanimity so characteristic of men of their trade. Andy Burnham's response to the arrival of the 230-seat people-carrier was to promise, and I quote, to "change tactics". His new tactics are distribution. After the protests at the new camp of illegal migrants set up at Piddington, outside Bicester, he remarked that "we cannot have a situation where it's only the poorest communities in the country that receive all of the dispersal of refugees and asylum seekers. I do believe all parts of the country need to work, to play their part." There's your manifesto, folks. Ending migration, legal or illegal, is not on the agenda. Spreading the misery around, however, is. The 13 hotels he's closing will empty into dispersal HMOs across the country. The shires are being told to ready themselves, and permanence is the premise of the whole scheme. This is why you can hear the death knell sounding not far off. The Prime Minister has now stood at the edge of the towns that represent Labour's last faithful hold-outs - the last people insulated from their work, the last ones the Labourite war on the working- and middle classes has not touched - and told them their turn is coming. As electoral strategy, remarkable. Once the respectable classes turn against the migration doctrine, it's done. Labour will find themselves with even less of a reason to exist than the Tories presently do. The waves of energy unleashed by their next-election wipe-out will be visible from the ISS. And it's put Burnham on the fast track to the public's deepest and most vitriolic contempt, as well. Don't believe the rubbish you see from the official pollsters. There is no 'Burnham bounce', never was one. The demographics who decide the outcomes of elections in this country reserve every bit of the ill-feeling they had for Starmer for the Barm-Cake Boy. Our own position was written down before he arrived. A country that cannot enforce its own borders has no immigration policy; it has, as our programme puts it, an open door with a suggestion box. Progress will disapply the Human Rights Act mechanisms in migration cases by primary legislation, rebuild the removal machinery the last 2 governments dismantled, and hand the smuggling networks to the Malebranche, whose statutory remit covers organised immigration crime, to be dismantled the way you dismantle any other criminal industry: at the bank account, at the supply chain, at the factory gate. Burnham has told you his plan for the boats: bigger ones, shared out more fairly. If you heard that and felt the floor drop, the work of replacing these people is hiring now, and it is the only work in British politics worth an able adult's time. Progress is where it is being done.
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Next month the Treasury starts putting up the price of petrol. The 5p cut in fuel duty, introduced as a temporary kindness in March 2022 and extended ever since, begins expiring in stages from September; by next March duty is back to 57.95p a litre, and from April it rises with RPI every year after, automatically, with no vote and no announcement. A permanent ratchet, installed in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis, timed for the month the summer holidays end. What minister concerned with their career would ever read the driver's full ledger out loud? Tax makes up around 53% of the price of a litre of petrol now: 52.95p of duty, then VAT charged on the fuel and on the duty itself, the state taxing its own tax. A household running 1 car for 8,000 miles a year buys roughly £1,960 of fuel, of which about £1,040 goes to the Exchequer. Fuel duty brings in £24.4bn a year. And when you park the car, the meter keeps running: motor insurance is the 1 purchase the law compels you to make, and the state adds 12% Insurance Premium Tax for your obedience. Obeying the law in Britain is a taxable event. It costs the average driver £67 a year on a premium of about £560, and it costs the 17-year-old staring at a £1,695 quote considerably more. Put together, a 2-car working household pays over £5,000 a year to stay on the road before the car itself is paid a penny of. The belief underneath this is never spoken but perfectly legible. Whitehall regards the driver as a revenue base wearing a seatbelt: driving is treated as a vice to be priced, when for most of the country outside zone 2 it is the way you get to the job, the school, the hospital appointment the NHS moved 40 minutes away. The people who design these schedules take the Tube. The people who pay them drive a 9-year-old Vauxhall because the carer's rota starts at 6am, and there is no bus. They know, too. A government that believed its own "temporary" label would have let the cut lapse in 2023. This one kept the label through 4 years of nervous extensions, and has now scheduled its reclamation plus an RPI escalator, while freezing rail fares only for the 45% of tickets it regulates and letting the rest float. The word temporary, in Treasury usage, means awaiting reclassification. Progress has the ledger priced the other way, in the programme, costed. Fuel duty cut to 45p a litre, permanently, from the first April of a Progress government; the September rises cancelled; RPI indexation never reintroduced, and any future increase requiring an affirmative vote of both Houses of Parliament, on the record, in daylight. Insurance Premium Tax abolished on motor insurance: £67 back on the average premium, £135 for the young driver the current system bleeds hardest. About £200 a year back into the 8,000-mile household against the rates now scheduled, and the principle worth more than the money: the state stops treating your compliance as a harvest. Until that happens, we'll just have to look forward to when the ratchet starts to crank. The men who built it are counting on you sighing at the forecourt and paying up, the way you always have. Sigh, pay, and nothing changes; or put an hour and a pair of hands behind the outfit that has already written the repeal. Progress is building the government that cancels the September rise. Drivers welcome.
3
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In 2013, the man who would become Anurag Mohindru KC told the panel interviewing him for a prestigious position 23 Essex Street that he had studied at Oxford. Asked for his CV so the claim could be checked, he edited it to say he had read medicine there for a year, and because he's a man of taste and saw that his fraudulent resume required some leavening texture he added a cricket blue he never won. After all, who ever heard of a less-than-well-rounded Oxford man? The Bar's tribunal called Mohindru's false claim a "reckless, foolish and completely unnecessary lie", found he had "doubled down", and disbarred him. On 3 July in the High Court, however, Mr Justice Johnson restored Mohindru to the practice of law with a sentence that deserves engraving above the door of every chambers in London: "It would be wrong to impose the ultimate sanction merely because dishonesty is present." 'Merely.' Mohindru is now is free to resume his career spent testing other people's honesty under oath. It seems like Britain is running an epidemic of fraudulent self-invention at the moment, and running a second epidemic underneath it: the organised defence of the people caught doing it. Jason Arday resigned his Cambridge chair and his Jesus College fellowship on 5 August, the day the university finally opened an investigation into his academic record. You've heard it all by now. The allegations, raised in July, are that passages of his thesis and published papers copy other scholars without attribution, and that celebrated elements of his life story sit awkwardly beside the available record. He denies the lot; Liverpool John Moores examined the plagiarism claims against work done there and found "honest and reasonable error"; nothing is yet proven, and the investigation can take its course. Cambridge stood by him for weeks and, on the day he resigned, announced it would "continue to provide support to him". The Good Law Project circulated a letter, signed by more than 24 academics and politicians, describing the examination of a public academic's public record as a "smear campaign". Validating a man's CV is now an act of aggression, provided the man is the right sort. Elsewhere, Zholia Alemi practised as an NHS psychiatrist for 22 years on a forged University of Auckland degree, having left her course in its 1st year. She detained patients. She was convicted of 20 offences of fraud and forgery in 2023, sentenced to 7 years, and has since been ordered to repay £406,624 of the £1m-plus she drew in salary. The forgery was exposed by a local reporter in Carlisle, who managed in an afternoon the check the General Medical Council had not performed in 22 years. Still elsewhere, more than 700 healthcare workers have been guilty of obtaining or seeking UK nursing registration through tests sat by paid proxies at a single test centre in Nigeria; the investigation swept up nearly 2,000 nurses; hundreds of them stayed on wards while it ran; 48 were asked to sit the exam again. The scheme was described in the proceedings as fraud on an industrial scale, and the regulator processed it at the pace of a parish council. And 2 weeks ago, on 24 July, Maidstone Crown Court gave Amran Hussain, 40, of Westerham, 4 years. Hussain applied for 2,071 NHS posts and landed 13 of them, worth £168,072.41, on the basis of him supposedly holding MSc degrees from Oxford and Birkbeck that nobody could verify, memberships of professional institutes that nobody could confirm, a directorship at an NHS trust he never held, and references supplied from NHS email accounts he himself controlled: the service wrote to ask whether Hussain could be trusted, and Hussain replied warmly that he could. Once he got in-post he went off sick until each contract died; how laughably appropriate that his one sincere engagement with the NHS was its sickness policy. 4 years, richly deserved. Hussain had no college behind him, no chambers, no campaign group, no letter with 24 signatures. The institutions doing the forgiving hold a doctrine. The CV may be a genre of self-marketing, and everybody may round the odd number up; but outright self-invention is quite another thing. Still, these places allow it. To them, dishonesty is just a lapse, an episode in a wellness journey, treatable with reflection and a statement about learning. Consequences are for outsiders. To them, the audit and the reckoning is the real offence, to be called disproportionate, vindictive or racist according to the defendant's profile and connections. Who pays? The candidate who told the truth and came 2nd, 13 separate times, to Hussain. The junior barrister who put her real university on the form at 23 Essex Street. The patients detained on the judgement of a psychiatrist with 1 year of study and 22 of practice. Do they know? The judge wrote "dishonesty is present" into the reinstatement itself. It is on the record in his own hand. This must all end. It is a practice of formalised dishonesty not known in public life in these isles for centuries. It will not be brought back. Progress's National Anti-Corruption Act stands up a 500-strong unit, the Malebranche, at the centre of government, with independent power to investigate and prosecute white-collar crime, procurement fraud and institutional corruption, and it pays whistleblowers up to 10% of recovered funds for exposing fraud inside public or private institutions, with criminal sanctions for any employer who retaliates. The first line of that policy reads: "If you're a white-collar criminal, there will be no worse place to be in Europe than Britain." We wrote the sentence before this summer's parade of the forgiven, and the parade has been making our argument for us ever since. This country runs, hour by hour, on the honesty of people whose honesty is rarely if ever honoured, merely taken for granted: the electrician whose certificate is real, the nurse whose exam was her own, the accountant whose letters were earned. Above them sits a class that treats truthfulness as a courtesy, extended and withheld among friends. A thoroughly Third World attitude. The defenders of the fraudulent are organised, lettered and funded. Organise against them. Progress is where that is being done, and the entry requirement is the one Mohindru failed: be what you say you are.
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Since January 1st 2026, 765 people have filed sickness reports with Surfers Against Sewage after bathing at 406 locations around the British coast: gastrointestinal illness, ear and throat infections, skin complaints, respiratory trouble. 322 of those reports have arrived since May 1st, as the heat drove the crowds to the water. Bournemouth, the flagship resort of the English seaside, tops the table. This did not ever happen. There was never, heretofore, any risk that came with swimming in English seas. Well, there is now. Last year, for the first time, the water companies were made to tell the Environment Agency what their storm overflows do when there is no storm. An overflow is legal in one circumstance only: exceptional rainfall. A dry spillage, with under 0.25mm of rain on the day and the day after, is illegal every time it happens, and lands on the beach undiluted. The companies went to their own monitors and filed the total: 187,241 hours of illegal dry-weather dumping in 2025, reaching 105 designated bathing waters. Run that figure through a calendar and it comes to more than 21 years of continuous crime, compressed into 1, self-reported, in spreadsheet form, to a regulator that read it and issued a press notice. And the sign at the top of the slipway still says Excellent. That classification is a 4-year average of samples taken on a published schedule through the bathing season; the samplers keep a diary, and the sewer does not consult it. Of the 20 illnesses SAS could tie directly to a confirmed illegal dry-day discharge last year, 17 occurred at bathing waters rated Excellent. The board on the beach describes the paperwork. The pipe reports to a different department. Absolutely insane. Harlyn Bay is a family beach on the north Cornwall coast: sheltered, shallow, the kind parents choose when they want to get away somewhere in the coutry. South West Water discharged raw sewage onto it on 231 occasions between 2016 and 2021. This year the company pleaded guilty to 18 criminal charges covering Harlyn, Bodmin, Playing Place, Polperro and Plymouth, including 336 illegal spills into the River Camel, a protected salmon river. It was fined £2.15m in 2023 for the previous batch of offences, and £1.85m in June for the Brixham drinking-water contamination. Pennon, its owner, booked £135m in profit in 2025-26, which prices the 2023 fine at 6 days of the year. That's what so criminal about this. These buggers believe the fine is a price, and a fair one; that a guilty plea is a communications event to be managed; that the sea off Cornwall is a shitbucket with a view. The people who pay for this particularly evil kind of market economics are a child in Bournemouth spending 3 days of her family's single summer holiday on a bathroom floor with a bug that'll stay in her gut biome for a decade, and the seaside towns whose whole economy rests on strangers trusting the water that laps on the shore. This is the driest summer in memory. The reservoirs are low, the hosepipes are banned, and the drought halved the legal storm-spill total, from 3.61m hours to 1.87m, for the simple reason that there were fewer storms to hide behind. The illegal dumping carried on through the sunshine regardless. The one flow this industry never once interrupted all summer ran straight to the beach. Progress has written its answer to the men who run this arrangement into our programme. Whistleblowers who expose criminal activity inside public or private institutions, the treatment-works operator with the discharge logs included, will receive absolute protection from retaliation, with criminal sanctions for employers who do retaliate, and rewards of up to 10% of recovered fines. Confessed, repeat, industrial-scale crime will be met the way we intend to meet every other kind: ended, and its authors made to fear the law they have spent a decade pricing in. So if you stood in the sea this month with your children, trusting a sign paid for by the people dumping behind it, you already understand what this industry thinks of you. The anger is earned, and 765 entries in a charity's database prove how widely it is shared. What the anger lacks is an instrument. Building one is the work Progress exists for, and there is a place in it with your name on.
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19
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"Don't walk alone. Only carry items you need. Be prepared to give up your cell phone, purse or wallet. Do not argue or fight with the criminal. Be prepared to describe the suspect. Above all, be afraid. Be very afraid." That is, in so many words, the Minneapolis Police Department, in August 2020, telling the public they serve how to be robbed properly. British and American politics don't share all that much in common, excepting a few governing air currents and shared fundamentals borne of our mutual cultural ancestry. But every word of that announcement could have been issued in Britain, in 2026, by an urban police force, and none of it would have surprised anybody. We are already living under the same instructions. Don't take your phone out on the pavement. Keep your car keys in a metal tin by the front door. Don't leave anything on the passenger seat, or in the boot, or in the car at all. Walk in pairs after dark; in 4s if you're a girl, and especially if you live in neighbourhoods where clean-up crews lurk. Take the long way round. Order a taxi to the door. Fit the second lock, the camera, the tracker, the shutter. Carry a spare bike wheel at all times. In a growing number of shops butter and coffee now sit behind a plastic gate, and the cashiers are better reinforced at and more confined in their positions than inmates talking on a prison phone, because the state has withdrawn from the question of whether it should protect the public from criminals. Because the public, like the wider governing establishment, expects you to just accept that this is the way it's going to be. That the days of safe streets, high trust, and neighbourhoods so secure you could leave your front-door unlocked or your garage open overnight, are gone and never coming back. Just in the same way that they expect you to accept that certain kinds of terrorism are an unavoidable fact of every day life and should be merely borne with grace - they are not, and you should not - they expect you to understand that crime cannot be stopped, will not be stopped, indeed should not be stopped, and that you will live under it forever. From that follows everything you have been told. Move your phone. Move your keys. Move your route home. Move yourself. It's not a coincidence, any of this. Not here, and not in Minnesota. The city of Minneapolis issued the leaflet summarised above in 2020, and over the years that followed the same state was drained of hundreds of $100,000,000s through a child-nutrition programme its own officials were too frightened to audit, because the fraudsters had sued them for racial discrimination and the auditors put down their pens like cowards. The same thing that allows your tax money to be stolen is what allows you to be menaced on the streets. The reflex is identical and so is the excuse. Progress will restore the charge rate to 15.5% and double the police force to make that arithmetic possible, because a crime nobody is charged with is not illegal in any sense a criminal recognises. Crime data will be published openly, by area and by offence, so that no chief constable can tell a town it is imagining what it can see from the window. And we will be the hardest government in Europe on those who steal from the public purse, with no exemption for the files that are awkward to open. Ultra-low-crime societies exist. People are living in them today. They are not the product of some special national temperament, and there is no reason on Earth that a British city cannot be one of them. Like in so many other areas, we showed the way first. And, having lost our way like so much of the world, upon finding it again, we will be the ones to remind our neighbours of how it was and will be again.
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A woman walked into a police station in Tottenham in January last year. She had been raped in a car park. She had a broken collarbone. The officers ran her name, found a community order she had breached, and put her in a cell. Consider what that took. Somebody had to be free to process her. Somebody had to key in her details, take her property, and walk her down the corridor. The Metropolitan Police had the manpower and the paperwork and the will to lock up a homeless rape victim on the same morning it decided her rape was too difficult to investigate. They said afterwards she had given the wrong date once, that the car park had no cameras, and that she was hard to reach because she had nowhere to live. In March, Carmenza Valencia-Trujillo, 53, was found dead. They arrested Simon Levy within days. They found his DNA on her body. They STILL did not open a murder investigation. In August, Sheryl Wilkins, 39, was murdered in that same Tottenham car park. Then, and only then, the machinery moved. Yesterday a jury convicted him of killing them both and of raping the woman with the broken collarbone. He had convictions for attacking women going back to July 2018. In 2022 he sexually assaulted a female prison officer while inside HMP Brixton. Between October 2023 and May 2025 he assaulted 10 more women on the Underground and the suburban lines, and for those 10 women he was given 6 years. Every institution that handled him knew who he was, what he was, and the level of threat he posed to every woman who was unfortunate enough to cross his path. Not one of them treated it as urgent. The polite version of this argument says our police are overstretched and doing their best. They are not overstretched when it comes to the things they believe in. There is always an officer available for the man who posted something coarse on the internet, always a unit for the reassurance visit, always budget for the strategy, the action plan, the lanyard and the away day. There is always a diversion scheme, always a report explaining that the perpetrator was himself failed, always a mechanism to let him out early because the estate is full. The money and the manpower exist. They are pointed somewhere else, deliberately, by people who have decided what the police are for. What they are not for, evidently, is women with broken bones, who have been violated in the most deeply personal and abhorrent fashion; for women dead in a stairwell. Well if you're not for those kinds of women, you're not for women at all. This is a class with an ideology, and the ideology says that the criminal is a product of his circumstances, that punishment is a failure of imagination, that a force's reputation for sensitivity matters more than its clear-up rate, and that the one unforgivable sin in British public life is to appear harsh. Every part of that costs something, and the people who hold the belief never pay it. It is paid in women. And to those who hold that ideology, their message to women. "We will sacrifice as many of you as necessary to ensure that our ideology is served." They know the price. They will make you pay it. They have been making you pay it, case after case, for 20 years. Rotherham, Telford, Rochdale, the Angiolini review, and now a car park in Haringey. It is written in a charge rate of 2.8% for rape and 4.2% for sexual offences, and in the plain fact that a man could assault 10 women on public transport across 19 months while the state looked at its phone. Progress will double the police force, because 2.8% is what happens when nobody knocks on doors. Rape will carry a minimum of 10 years, and 15 where there are multiple victims. Sexual assault will carry a minimum of 3 years, so that 11 counts against 11 women cannot come to 6. Repeat offenders will face compound sentencing, so that a record running back to 2018 counts against a man rather than being read out as background. And we will publish these decisions, every one, so the next family finds out what was known and when without waiting on a watchdog. Above all we will put people in charge of British policing who believe that the safety of its people is the first duty of the state, and that the rights of the law-abiding and innocent shall never be drawn to compete against the interests of the criminal. We shall do these women honour, though it can only be too late. Carmenza Valencia-Trujillo was 53. Sheryl Wilkins was 39. The third woman has no name in any of this, and she walked into a police station bleeding only to come out in handcuffs. They were sacrificed to an idea. We are coming for the idea.
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135
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Imagine British industry paying 7 pence for a unit of electricity. Today it pays 26.63p, the highest in the International Energy Agency, 125% above the European median and roughly 4 times what an American manufacturer pays. Every energy-intensive thing this country used to make, we now buy from someone whose power is cheaper, and we call the resulting deindustrialisation a global trend rather than a decision. So imagine the number changed. Then follow it. Consider first the plants that cannot substitute their way out of an electricity price: the smelters, the foundries, the glassworks, the chemical plants, the fertiliser works. For them energy is THE raw material, by any other name. British steel producers have paid an estimated £845 million more than their French competitors since 2016/17 for the same output. Take that away and the arithmetic that closed those works reverses, in the same towns, for the same reasons, running the other way. Consider what follows from that. The apprenticeships come back, because a foundry that is expanding trains people and a foundry that is dying does not. The supply chains thicken around each plant, the way they always did, and 40 small firms within an hour's drive get an order book. The wage in those towns goes up because there is somebody to bid against for a fitter. Now consider the thing nobody in Britain is planning for. Artificial intelligence is a power industry wearing a software costume, and the datacentres that run it get built wherever electricity is cheap and abundant. At the moment that is Virginia, Texas and the Gulf. At 7p it is Teesside and the Humber. And where the compute goes, the firms that need compute follow, which means the next 20 years of British science and British software happen in Britain because the electrons were here. Consider the house. Standing charges alone run at 55 to 65 pence a day before a single thing is switched on, and stripping the policy costs loaded into them takes £100 to £150 a year off every bill in the country. Then the wholesale price comes down on top. A pensioner in Sunderland stops doing arithmetic in her head before she puts the heating on in November, and keeps doing that for the rest of her life. Consider what cheap power does to everything priced downstream of it, which is everything. Energy is an input to the bread, the bus fare, the hospital, the parcel and the pint. A country that halves its industrial power price is a country with a permanent disinflationary current running under it, which means lower interest rates, which means the mortgage. And consider what it does to our position in the world. A nation that makes its own electricity from its own reactors on its own soil does not have to read the shipping news out of Hormuz to find out what next winter costs. All of it is just simple E1 - that is, item one in Progress' economic policy. British nuclear capacity is falling from 5.9 GW today to 1.2 GW by the end of this decade, and the plan is a nuclear surge to reverse it, alongside grid liberation to clear a connection queue that reached 739 GW, and the removal of every ideological levy from the bill on day one. First bill reductions within 21 days of Royal Assent. First small modular reactor generating within 48 months. Cheapest energy in the developed world within a decade. Every other party in this country will offer you a rebate on a bill they intend to leave exactly where it is. We are offering to change the price altogether. Come and help us do it.
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11
1
41
1,610
43% of A&E patients over 80 wait more than 12 hours between arriving at hospital and reaching a ward. For patients between 21 and 30, the figure is 19%. The oldest and frailest people in Britain are more than twice as likely to spend half a day on a trolley as the young and healthy, which is an exact inversion of how any functioning system would work. 49,000 patients waited over 12 hours from the decision to admit them in June alone, up 7% on last June. This year NHS England began publishing corridor care as a monthly statistic. May 2026 was the first month: an average of 2,241 instances a day in emergency departments across England. A monthly number is furniture. Once a thing is counted monthly it acquires a baseline, then a trend, then a tolerance, then a line on a dashboard that goes amber when it is worse than usual and green when it is normal. Corridor care has just been issued its paperwork and moved in. And it is the over-80s who are lying in it, because they are the ones who arrive at 2am with a chest infection and no advocate, who cannot make themselves comfortable, who develop pressure sores in 6 hours and delirium in 12, and who are the least likely of anyone in that department to complain to a manager afterwards. They are also the generation that built the thing. The cause is beds. Britain has stripped out its bed base for 30 years on the theory that shorter stays would compensate, and A&E is the room where the shortage becomes visible, because it is the room with no door on it. Progress will end the maintenance crisis in the NHS estate and rebuild the capacity, because a hospital that has nowhere to put people will always put them in the corridor no matter who is running it, how hard they work, or which tsar is appointed to feel strongly about it in a press release. Until then, count on. There will be a figure for May and a figure for June and a figure for every month after that, and somewhere in each of them is a woman of 84 on a trolley by a vending machine, 11 hours in, wondering whether anybody knows she is there. We think that is worth a country's fury. If you agree, you know where we are.
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1,014
176,361 children in England missed at least half of school last year. Not a fortnight here and there. Half of an entire academic year. The Department for Education counts them as severely absent. The rate has gone from 2.14% to 2.26% in a year, and it has risen by 193% since before the pandemic. 3 times as many children have effectively stopped attending school as had stopped attending in 2019. So if, like me, you've noticed a weirdly high number of kids sporting about and standing around, mid-day, in the middle of the week, in the middle of term time, in the last few years, I have the displeasure of informing you that your eyes were sowing no deceit. The same statistical release was reported as good news. Horrendously, on its own terms it sort of is. Overall absence fell from 6.93% to 6.63%. Persistent absence fell from 19.23% to 17.63%. But the two movements are made of different children. The ones missing a day a fortnight are coming back. The ones who had gone are now even further gone. The average improves while the tail lengthens, which is what happens when a system is capable of nudging the nearly-fine and has no idea what to do about problem cases. 176,361. More kids are missing the majority of the school year in Britain than there are people in Oxford. A city of children. Parliament has noticed, in its way. The Children's Wellbeing and Schools Act received Royal Assent in April, and Part 2 of it creates compulsory registration of children not in school, for the straightforward reason that nobody in this country can currently tell you where they all are. Local authorities will have duties. Parents will have to register. There will be visits and assessments. But none of it is in force. It waits on regulations, which wait on statutory guidance, which waits on consultation. 4 months after Royal Assent, not one name has been written down. A state that has lost 176,361 children legislated in the spring to find them and has not yet turned the machine on. We know who these children are. They are overwhelmingly poor. They are the ones for whom school, as currently constituted, offers a daily experience of failure followed by an exam they will not pass, and who worked out somewhere around Year 9 that the whole arrangement had nothing in it for them. They were not wrong about that. They were right about it, which is the part nobody in education wants to hear. Progress would give them something to walk towards. Under our Skill Capital programme a young person begins earning nationally recognised Hallmarks at 15, through structured workplace placements and vocational modules built into the school week, so that a boy who cannot see a single reason to sit in a classroom can see a trade, a wage and a certificate an employer will pay real money for. He leaves at 18 with 3 of them, no debt, and something he can do that he could not do before. A register will tell you where the children went. It will not tell you why they left, and it will not give a single one of them a reason to come back. We have the reason. Come and help us build it.
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The Department for Work and Pensions has published its annual report, and it would like you to know that the Department for Work and Pensions is brilliant and doing a smashing job. The justification on which such self-approval rests is that the DWP managed to review 1.2 million Universal Credit claims and found they only had to correct 250,000 of them! That's right; our government's benchmark of success is that it thinks a 20% error/failure rate in the matter of parcelling money out to benefits claimants is the sign of elite performance. Elsewhere in the report we ready that costs from fraud and error are up from £9.4 billion to £9.9 billion (though this is disguised by expressing it as a percentage). But the real interesting part of the document is not in the DWP's pathetic failure of an attempt to convince you and itself that it's doing a job despite screwing up 1 out of every 5 of its claims. Their own statistics, published on 11 June, cover 4.6 million Work Capability Assessments since April 2019. Of the initial decisions, 72% found limited capability for work and work-related activity, which means that that person has no obligation to look for a job ever again, and a permanent entitlement to state money. 16% found limited capability for work. 12% were found fit. 12%. Call that a gate if you like, but the refusal rate puts it somewhere between a turnstile and a welcome mat. 8.4 million people now claim Universal Credit, up 830,000 in a single year, and 4.2 million of them carry no work requirement at all. Meet the severe conditions criteria and there is no routine reassessment either, so the award runs for life from a department that will never ring back to see how you are getting on. Somewhere inside that number are men and women who physically cannot work and never will be able to, and it's reasonable that this country should keep them in reasonable comfort. The disgrace is that the system cannot tell you which ones they are and has arranged its affairs so that it never has to find out. The rest is the real bill. Vast numbers of people are being paid 'correctly', to the penny, under rules that are themselves insanely lenient, should have flagged them as patently able-to-work, and should never have admitted them. No fraud. No error. No column in the annual report. Just a test that a fundamentally articulate adult with a fit note has an 88% chance of passing, attached to an income for life. You can't audit your way out of that. Inspect every claim in Britain and you would find, at colossal expense, that almost all of them comply beautifully with a standard that is itself the scandal. Progress will make candour a condition of employment in the civil service, so that arranging 2 percentages the way those 2 were arranged this week puts an official in front of a disciplinary panel. We will rebuild the capability test, because one that finds 88% of applicants incapable is worthless. Every award carrying no work requirement gets reassessed, excepting the severe and terminal cases where reassessment would be tantamount to cruelty. And the work has to be worth having at the other end: tax off low pay, the employer thresholds restored so the young are hireable again, and a trade in people's hands rather than a monthly payment and a shrug. They spent the year checking that the right people got the money. Not one person in that building was asked whether it should have been going out at all. We have the gall to ask, though, at Progress. If that sounds like your kind of thing, come and work with us.
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It has taken Gatwick Airport almost 10 years to move a runway that it already owns 12 metres. It's part of a scheme to shift the existing standby northern strip 12 metres north so that 2 aircraft can use the airfield at once instead of 1. The land is Gatwick's. The tarmac is already down. The £2.2bn is private. Almost 10 years. On Tuesday the Court of Appeal threw out the last challenge. Lord Justice Holgate and Lord Justice Dove found the grounds unarguable, with no real prospect of success, which is judicial for get the eff-n-jeff out of my court. That failed appeal was itself the final stage of a process that began before the pandemic, before Brexit had been implemented, before 4 of the 7 prime ministers we have had in a decade had taken office. The project has moved at the rate of a metre and a half a year. A tortoise does a metre and a half in an afternoon and does not usually require senior counsel to do so. Heathrow Terminal 5 took 8 years to get planning permission. That delay was regarded as a national embarrassment so acute that Parliament built an entire new regime to prevent it happening again: the Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects system, designed to produce a decision within 12 to 17 months. As you'd expect from a department with a name that'd make a penguin cringe, it hasn't worked. Gatwick has just taken 8 years under the system created to stop projects taking 8 years. The machinery designed to fix the problem reproduced the problem exactly, to the year, and nobody in Whitehall appears to have noticed or minded. 58% of decisions under that regime are now judicially reviewed. The success rate of those reviews is 3.9% for ordinary developments and 10.2% for significant ones. They add 1.4 years to a project on average and up to £121 million in costs on a major road scheme. Roughly 9 in 10 challenges fail, and they work anyway, because delay is the point and defeat costs the challenger almost nothing. An objection does not have to be right. It only has to be filed. We built a legal system in which anybody can impose years of delay and 8-figure costs on a national asset, lose, and walk away whistling. A peculiarly contemporary form of looting. Progress will end it inside the first year. Under our planning programme there is a binding statutory maximum of 12 months from acceptance of an application to the Secretary of State's decision on any nationally significant project, with no exceptions: 4 months for examination, 3 months for the minister, and deemed consent if the state misses its own deadline. Judicial review of planning decisions gets restricted to genuine points of law, with hard cost consequences for those who bring hopeless challenges and hard timetables for the courts that hear them. On the other side of those 8 years: 100,000 additional flights a year. Passenger capacity rising from 43 million to 80 million. 14,000 jobs across Sussex and Surrey. Every penny of it privately financed, requiring nothing from the Treasury but permission. All of it available in 2019. A country that cannot move a runway 12 metres in less than 8 years is not going to build the reservoirs, the reactors, the labs or the houses. Everything else we argue about downstream of this is conditional on fixing it. And we intend to fix it. If you would rather live in a country that can move 12 metres in under a decade, come and join us. It's time to get to work.
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British actress, former TV presenter, and sometime-pundit Jameela Jamil has issued a follow-up to the remarkable comments she made a week or two ago on the Yestergays podcast describing the British as "the most evil people in history," primarily citing the history of empire for reasoning. Her follow-up is something of a doubling down on her prior sentiments. I'm not really interesting in evaluating the means or the method by which Jamil put her point across, or her feelings about the matter, only in taking her points in order and considering whether they're correct. So here they are, starting with her primary statement. 1. "The British are the most evil people in history." We'll begin first with an inventory of just the 'moral inventions' to which the British have claim. It throws up the Magna Carta, habeas corpus, trial by jury, the global template for parliament, the invention of humanitarianism, and of course the abolition of the slave trade, paid for in blood and glory by the West Africa Squadron of the Royal Navy through the 19th century, perhaps the greatest moral achievement to which any nation can lay reasonable claim. Then there's Wollstonecraftian feminism, the codified idea of individual rights against the Crown. The harm principle. Indeed, the same theory of toleration itself which Jamil invokes to defame the British originates with the British. She is wielding a standard against the very people who invented it. This does not seem to me to be the inventory-record of an evil people, let alone an especially evil people. We could go on with the list, but there are many other statements to interrogate. 2. "[The Empire is] widely documented as being the largest in history, having taken all land with violence, and having the highest death count of any other empire." The largest? Correct and totally uncontroversial: roughly 35.5 million square kilometres at its 1920 peak. "Took all land with violence"? Straightforwardly false as a universal. Britain acquired its territories by every imaginable means. Cession by treaty, purchase, transfer from other European powers at the conclusion of continental wars, dynastic inheritance (Bombay arrived as part of Catherine of Braganza's dowry), protectorate agreements signed by local rulers seeking a counterweight to their local rivals, and settlement of sparsely populated territory. Conquest was one mode among several. Merely considering the size of British standing armies, and the geographical span of their deployment, during the period of imperial expansion, especially compared to the size of subject populations, makes the idea of the British blazing in to subjugate the world at bayonet point rather ridiculous. "Highest death count of any empire". This is not an established finding, but an inference drawn from a single contested paper. It also compares unlike quantities, such as famine excess-mortality estimated against a counterfactual baseline, set beside direct killing at sabrepoint in the case of the Mongol or Japanese empires. It must be remembered that, for instance, the East India Company's expansion in India ran on Indian capital, Indian troops and Indian allies. Plassey was financed in significant part by the Jagat Seth banking house; by the mid-19th century the Company's Indian army was several times larger than its British contingent. A conquest narrative of foreign warships arriving to subdue a single unified polity living hitherto in perfect harmony acutely mischaracterises what was actually a collapsing Mughal successor-state system in which the Company was, for decades, one contending power among many, and frequently invited in. 3. "Up to 165 million Indians died during the occupation" This is attributable to the much-touted claim among enthusiastic critics of empire that the British schemed to kill off hundreds of millions of Indians through famine during this period. Tirthankar Roy (LSE, an economic historian of colonial India) has published the substantive counter-case, positing that there is no evidence whatsoever that famines in India were less frequent or less deadly in the pre-colonial period, so the comparison lacks a control, and thus grounds to lay responsibility at the door of the British. The mortality data Allen and others rely on comes largely from the Indo-Gangetic basin, which was not where the great Deccan famines occurred; Martin Ravallion's 1987 work found that food exports rose with good harvests and fell with bad ones, stabilising rather than draining domestic consumption; and Deccan famines effectively ceased after 1900 while the underlying weather shocks did not, which is difficult to explain on a pure extraction model but easier to explain on a state-capacity model. Roy's own explanation, in fact, is that famine relief improved as British administrative capacity improved, and there is no reason to believe Roy is a motivated empire apologist. 4. "OXFAM have a 97 page report that claims 64 TRILLION was drained" $64 trillion is more than all the wealth that has ever existed. The figure was not calculated by Oxfam but by Utsa and Prabhat Patnaik (and calculated for the purpose of being pitched at wealth distribution seminars in Davos). The Patnaik method takes India's export surplus, which was appropriated rather than paid for in the ordinary way, and compounds it forward at a rate of interest over two centuries, resulting in this huge inflation. The underlying nominal drain is orders of magnitude smaller. The number is best read as "what the drain would be worth if invested at 5% since 1765", which is a rhetorical construction chosen to arrive at the highest figure possible. It is not a serious number. And even if it were, it would not be a final number, as presumably in any settling of accounts of a reparatory nature between Britain and a colonial subject, the champions of restitution unto the subject would be just as keen to calculate the extent of that nation's present wealth that may be owed in some way to useful institutions, customs, laws, methods, and other contributions made by the British during the time in occupation, and duly factor that in? 5. "India had 25 per cent of the world's wealth before Britain, 4 per cent after" Prior to industrialisation, GDP was purely a factor of population size. You had more people, you had a higher GDP. Industrialisation changed this dynamic fundamentally. Industrialised nations are able to increase productivity and generate thus more wealth, per-person and per-unit-of-time, than non-industrialised nations. As the likes of not only Britain but subsequently all Western Europe, North America and later Japan industrialised, they created wealth at a far greater rate than India. India's decline in the standings is due to the relative progression of its peers. China is an excellent added weight in the assessment. It did not experience a colonisation of a similar nature; it also did not industrialise; and its own relative share of the world's wealth also went down during the same period. 6. "Sure they built roads, but only to loot with more ease" Rail and canal networks built purely for extraction do not look like India's, which by 1947 was the fourth largest network on Earth at roughly 40,000 route miles, retained and extended wholesale after independence rather than dismantled as a colonial artefact. The British built the Ganges Canal and the Punjab canal colonies, among the largest irrigation projects in the world, whose function was agricultural output for domestic consumption in regions which had no export value for Britain. Furthermore, Britain did much more than just build the roads. The full inheritance includes codified law, the census, the survey, the university system founded in 1857, an English-language administrative and commercial layer that is now a huge comparative advantage for India in global services, and the professional civil service on the Northcote-Trevelyan model. The railway guarantee system, however, under which Indian revenues underwrote a guaranteed 5% return to British investors regardless of performance, was a real and well-documented transfer from Indian taxpayers to British capital. Neither need nor point in denying as much. 7. "It was not just 'the done thing'. We had time and experience. We knew better." If the British are in fact a uniquely evil people, then it can hardly be argued that they did in fact 'know better'. But in any case, Jamil is right, albeit in a way that weakens her point: the Brits really did know better. Britain was the first major power to criminalise the slave trade (1807) and then slavery itself (1833), and it did so decades ahead of most of its peers, while the moral case against both was largely developed in Britain by Clarkson, Wilberforce, Equiano and the Quaker network. The claim "they knew better" is true precisely because Britain is where a great deal of the knowing was done. The abolition came at great cost and was enforced across decades. The 1833 compensation settlement, about £20 million, ran to roughly 40% of annual government expenditure and was financed by a loan not discharged until 2015! The Royal Navy's West Africa Squadron patrolled for around sixty years, directly freed on the order of 150,000 people, and lost roughly 1,600 sailors in the cause of their efforts. Rationally self-interested extraction does not look like this, has never looked like this, and will never look like this. Interestingly, the Royal Navy's efforts thus were directly responsible for things like the break-up of the African Kingdom of Dahomey, in modern day Benin, whose economy was so completely reliant on the trafficking of other Africans for slavery that it could not survive once the trade had been stamped out. And colonisation by REAL invasion and bloody, ruthless conquest WAS the 'done thing' at the time, as in every prior time; to suggest otherwise is ridiculous. The Mughal state was itself the product of foreign invasion (still a bone of enormous, live, modern contention for many, many Indians), Aurangzeb's Deccan wars had exhausted it, Maratha raiding into Bengal in the 1740s killed people in the hundreds of thousands by contemporary estimate, and Nader Shah's sack of Delhi in 1739 removed both the Peacock Throne and the Koh-i-Noor a generation before Plassey. The moral standard Jamil applies to Britain is one no 18th state anywhere met. The party that came closest to meeting it was...the British! 8. "The Empire is not in our school curriculum, so many Brits don't know much about it" People never stopped going on about the empire when I was at school (though happily it was taught in a less moralising way than I imagine it is now). It's taught at Key Stage 3, GCSE and A-Level. This claim is nonsense. 9. "Look at Germany and how accountable they have been." We'll presume Jamil is talking about German apologies for Nazism here. They reckoned rightly with a twelve-year national-socialist regime - with living perpetrators, following total military defeat, foreign occupation and an externally imposed denazification programme - with an unambiguous and systematic programme of racial extermination at its centre. It has nothing in common with the Empire. Germany is actually nowhere near so exemplary in grappling with its own much shorter imperial history. The Herero and Nama genocide was only formally recognised by Germany in 2021, more than a century after the fact; the accompanying €1.1 billion package was structured as development aid over thirty years, was negotiated with the Namibian state rather than with the affected communities, and has been rejected by many Herero and Nama representatives. And, at any rate, Britain has in both fact apologised and paid. The 2013 Mau Mau settlement was £19.9 million to 5,228 claimants with a statement of regret from the Foreign Secretary; Cameron called Amritsar deeply shameful at Jallianwala Bagh in 2013; Blair issued statements on the Irish famine in 1997 and on slavery in 2006. 10. "Where has the money been? Ten per cent hold over fifty per cent of the wealth" This is the "empire made us rich" chestnut. In fact, British per-capita income growth accelerated faster after decolonisation vs during the imperial peak. The richest countries in Europe today include several that had no empire at all, and Portugal, which held its colonies longest, is among the poorest in Western Europe. 11. "[Commonwealth migrants] came here because this is where their money had been relocated to" No, they came because of the 1948 British Nationality Act conferring the right of entry, acute post-war labour shortages, and active recruitment campaigns by the NHS and London Transport. The revealed-preference test disproves this. If the destination of migration tracked the path of extracted capital, Indian emigration would concentrate overwhelmingly in Britain, and it doesn't. The Gulf states host several times more Indian migrants than Britain does, and the Gulf extracted nothing from India (though some states in the Gulf are certainly extracting an awful lot, of an egregious and shameful nature, from Indians, including their passports). ... There are many, many empires in the history of our world who make for rich comparatives in this argument. For pure violence-meted-out, for the intensity of the violence in question, and for the athleticism with which it erased the cultures of the subjugated, the British Empire comes nowhere near the top of the league table. For the richness of the inheritance it left to its formerly subjugated territories on the other hand - which form a great number of the world's richest, safest, freest, and most prosperous nations - it stands proudly, and perhaps alone, among those at the very top. And safety, freedom, and prosperity have never struck me as 'evil'. Jamil's sentiments are unfortunate, especially for someone who has grown up on these islands with the rest of us - and all the more so given such views are merely the product of being misinformed. We can all dearly and earnestly hope she makes her turn to history shortly, at which point she can quite deservedly let go of the intense anger she needlessly feels towards the country in which she was born.
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If you'd like to read Jamil's original follow-up post, you can find it here: jameelajamil.substack.com/p/…
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