yes. pain today is better than crisis tomorrow
Align Capital retweeted
How much of India’s oil continued to come from Russia despite Donald Trump’s threats, tariffs and pressure on New Delhi?
Before Trump assumed office, Russian crude accounted for 36% of India’s oil imports.
In the first three months of his presidency, it averaged 39%.
Trump imposed a 26% tariff on India in April 2025.
Yet, Russian oil continued to account for 40% of India’s imports.
In August 2025, Trump imposed 50% tariff on India. From August 2025 to January 2026, Russia’s share averaged 33%.
In February 2026, Trump claimed India would stop buying Russian oil.
Since then, Russian crude has accounted for an average of 43% of India’s oil imports.
Despite mounting US pressure, India continued to make its energy choices based on its national interests.
Align Capital retweeted
The FMCG index had fallen approximately 35% in 2008. The next time it fell 30% during COVID and this time it has already fallen 35% so far.
2027
Datacenters 2027: The Year of Acceleration,
+50GW in a Single Year
60GW Under Construction,
SemiAnalysis Leading Indicators,
1.3T of Lease Contracts Signed YTD,
The Shortage Could Move to Chips
newsletter.semianalysis.com/…
interesting
Indian Startup IPOs: How They've Done
2026
🟢 Shadowfax: +133%
🟢 Kissht: +103%
🟢 Moneyview: +75%
🟢 Amagi: +58%
🟢 Rentomojo: +44%
🟢 Shiprocket: +34%
🟢 Aye Finance: +19%
🔴 Purple Style Labs: -6%
🔴 Fractal: -18%
🔴 AceVector: -22%
🔴 Turtlemint: -56%
2025
🟢 Ather Energy: +358%
🟢 Meesho: +105%
🟢 Groww: +101%
🟢 Lenskart: +61%
🟢 Urban Company: +54%
🟢 BlueStone: +51%
🟢 PhysicsWallah: +23%
🔴 Capillary: -5%
🔴 Pine Labs: -25%
🔴 Wakefit: -29%
🔴 ArisInfra: -35%
2024
🟢 BlackBuck: +118%
🟢 TBO Tek: +77%
🟢 ixigo: +55%
🟢 Go Digit: +5%
🔴 MobiKwik: -18%
🔴 Unicommerce: -23%
🔴 Swiggy: -40%
🔴 Ola Electric: -53%
🔴 FirstCry: -62%
2023
🟢 Honasa: +40%
🟢 ideaForge: +9%
🟢 Zaggle: +3%
🔴 Yatra: -32%
2022
🔴 Delhivery: -16%
🔴 Tracxn: -60%
2021
🟢 Eternal: +328%
🟢 Nazara: +204%
🟢 RateGain: +95%
🟢 CarTrade: +86%
🟢 Nykaa: +84%
🟢 PB Fintech: +9%
🔴 EaseMyTrip: -3%
🔴 MapmyIndia: -12%
🔴 Paytm: -21%
Before 2021
🟢 Info Edge, 2006: +7,807%
🟢 IndiaMart, 2019: +234%
🟢 Justdial, 2013: +35%
🔴 Matrimony, 2017: -45%
30 of 50 are green!
Return from IPO issue price to NSE closing price on 16 Oct 2026, adjusted for bonus issues, splits and rights issues.
Source: NSE.
Align Capital retweeted
"I always say, if you can compound your knowledge sustainably, eventually you can compound your capital as well.”
- Li Lu
China's actions are destabilizing the world
Hegseth on China:
The single largest buildup in modern history, but maybe in world history, is what China is building out in the Pacific.
Every single day, we're ensuring that our department is prepared to deter any change in the status quo that they might want to have on the first island chain or the second island chain or the South China Sea or in the Pacific.
not a good argument by Ben... essentially waiting for things to go wrong is not smart....need to be proactive... timelines will compress exponentially which could mean RSI achievement and its weaponization could occur without latency to act
Ben Horowitz: “The most dangerous thing going on in AI is Anthropic and Bill Gates”
“Anybody can go say, ‘AI is going to kill us,’ and you'll be on every major news station and every newspaper and so forth.
I think it's extremely dangerous, though, when it comes from Bill Gates because he is so credible, because he did build Microsoft, and people think of him that way, and then certainly he's been a big political donor, so he has a lot of political juice, particularly on the Democratic side.
The big risk that everybody talks about is that the models are going to recursively self-improve, and then they're going to take off, and then they're going to become so smart and run away from us.
Well, what would be the preconditions for that?
Ali Ghodsi from Databricks had a great formulation of, ‘Well, what would be the preconditions for that?’
And he had four preconditions.
One is that the next model has to require fewer GPUs than the last.
The second thing is the next model has to take less time to train.
And then the accuracy of the next model has to be better than the last, so it's got to be a better model.
And then finally, it's gotta keep happening again and again and again.
Zero of those four have been met.
We're not on track for any of those four to be met, and so we're really talking about a risk that's entirely theoretical at this point that we're not mapping to.”
Crazy numbers
JP Morgan calls for a re-rating in memory stocks:
- The memory S/D inbalance is deepening
- Rising AI/hyperscalers CAPEX
- Rising HBM content per AI accelerator
- HBM/DRAM wafer tradeoff becoming steeper with HBM4E consuming 4x more wafers per bit than DRAM
- SCA/lTA framework is significantly improving the forward visibility for memory producers
Just observe how cheap the Memory Big 3 have become:
Samsung: 2.99x FY2027 earnings
SK hynix: 2.72x FY2027 earnings
Micron $MU: 4.96x FY2027 earnings
Samsung and SK hynix are trading BELOW 3x next year's earnings, that is quite insane. Why? Is 2028 going to be a horrible year compared to 2027? No, 2028 profits will be even higher than 2027. What about 2029, will that year become horrible then? Nope, profits may moderate a bit but there is no sign of any earnings collapse with AI demand continuing to rise.
$MU $SKHY $SNDK $005930.KS $DRAM
1 scientist will direct or manage 1000 si agents ? assuming humans will still be in control
Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark tells the IMF the world is about to go from 10 million scientists to 10 billion (almost all virtual):
“According to UNESCO estimates, there are approximately 10 million scientists in the world. And even with only 10 million scientists, we have too few humans to oversee the work of today, too few laboratories to do material science analysis, too few biological labs to develop and test new drugs, and too few large pieces of scientific equipment in space or on the Earth for the experiments we want to run.
"Tell me what happens when instead of 10 million scientists, we have a billion virtual scientists directed by our own 10 million. Or 10 billion [virtual scientists]. That's the world predictably coming right for us. And we have to get ready. If we do get ready, we are going to be in a better position to translate the intelligence of AI systems into gains for us all. You know, longer, healthier lives, more energy, more food, more wealth.”
all big things start small..... "Gradatim Ferociter"
₹3,300 crore. 6 million chips/day. $31M (₹300 Cr) FY27 revenue target. 𓇲🇮🇳
Fabs take half a decade to pour silicon. Advanced packaging delivers commercial cash flow in months. 🌐
Kaynes Technology’s pivot from EMS into OSAT is an inflection point for India’s semiconductor roadmap:
• Commercial velocity: Sanand plant targeting ₹300 crore by FY27, focused on automotive, industrial power, and EV.
• Scale: Capacity to process 6 million chips per day under ISM 1.0.
• The foreign tech reality: CEO Raghu Panicker’s candid assessment: climbing from standard assembly to advanced packaging requires technology transfers and tier-1 global equipment partnerships.
Three takeaways:
1. OSAT is the pragmatic beachhead:
Greenfield fabs dominate headlines. Advanced packaging (heterogeneous integration, multi-chip modules) defines real competitiveness. OSAT delivers yield experience, customer qualification, and revenue without multi-year gestation.
2. Domestic demand de-risks capacity:
Unlike pure export hubs, India has captive pull from EV powertrains, smart meters, grid digitization, and industrial automation.
3. Capital is local. Know-how is global:
PLI and domestic balance sheets fund the plants. Packaging yields require deep process mastery.
Strategic foreign partnerships aren’t a compromise, they compress the learning curve by a decade.
Deeptech sovereignty isn’t built in isolation.
It’s won by mastering packaging execution and embedding into global supply chains.
@kaynes_tech @kaynessemicon
@AshwiniVaishnaw @SemiconIndia
By @ananta__agarwal
#Semiconductors #MakeInIndia #DeepTech #OSAT #ISM
Article below...👇
wow
24GW for datacenters in just China is insane. That's almost as much as Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the rest of the Asia-Pacific combined
The US is still over twice that at 56GW but buildouts here take >2x as long (China is doing <12 mo for 100MW) and we have almost <3x China's power capacity, which is a gap that's much harder to close
Align Capital retweeted
These days, I'm struck by how the dominant mood on both sides of the Atlantic toward the other is a kind of pity. Europe frets about the US's supposed slide into autocracy; the US about Europe's pusillanimity and immiseration.































