Trump's Federal Reserve chairman-designate will not be able to stop the bull market in gold: Myrmikan Research note argues that currencies do not typically decline gradually but instead collapse abruptly once excessive debt undermines confidence, a process that has repeated across history in countries ranging from Weimar Germany to Argentina, Turkey, Russia, and Mexico. It explains that over-indebted governments, corporations, and households borrow more not out of optimism but out of necessity or anticipation of devaluation, creating a fragile equilibrium in which central banks attempt to print just enough money to service interest obligations without triggering a loss of confidence. This equilibrium eventually fails when a shock such as war, financial crisis, or systemic stress disrupts debt servicing, forcing sudden currency devaluation, often over a very short time frame. Gold priced in local currency, as shown through multiple historical charts, consistently acts as an early warning signal of this collapse, becoming increasingly volatile as the pace and acceleration of monetary debasement intensify. It emphasizes that the current gold bull market differs fundamentally from past inflation-driven episodes because it began not with domestic U.S. economic distress but with an external geopolitical rupture in February 2022, when the United States froze Russia’s dollar reserves and thereby exposed the political risk embedded in holding dollar-denominated assets. This action triggered a quiet but persistent shift by central banks, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, and other large balance-sheet holders away from U.S. Treasuries and dollar assets and toward gold, the only non-dollar asset liquid enough to absorb such flows. From late 2022 through early 2026, gold’s steady parabolic rise reflects this growing institutional demand rather than retail enthusiasm or inflation panic. Myrmikan argues that the U.S. dollar’s reserve status is increasingly sustained by inertia rather than genuine global acceptance, noting that neither geopolitical rivals nor even U.S. policymakers fully support the burdens associated with reserve currency dominance. The international dollar system has allowed the United States to run persistent trade and fiscal deficits while attracting foreign capital to finance excessive leverage across the financial system. As foreign demand for dollar assets weakens, the paper warns that this external stress will translate into an internal financial crisis marked by rising funding costs, with private equity & private credit markets identified as the most vulnerable points due to their dependence on cheap and abundant liquidity. The Federal Reserve, the authors argue, lacks effective tools to resolve such a crisis without further destabilizing the currency. It casts serious doubt on feasibility of any attempt to simultaneously lower interest rates, shrink Fed’s balance sheet, and finance large-scale U.S. reindustrialization, concluding that political & market pressures will ultimately force renewed and accelerating monetary expansion. The Three Phases of the Gold Endgame Myrmikan outlines a three-phase monetary unwind: Phase 1 (Current) •External de-dollarization •Gold rises steadily, institutions remain underinvested •No visible domestic crisis yet Phase 2 (Next) •Fed forced to monetize more aggressively •Inflation resurfaces domestically •Bond market loses credibility •Gold reflects Fed impotence Phase 3 (Terminal) •Sovereign debt death spiral •Rising yields → rising deficits → forced monetization •Choice between default or currency destruction •Historically, this always ends in collapse Myrmikan avoids near-term calls but provides balance-sheet logic: •Historical gold backing: 33%–50% of central bank assets •That implies gold between $8,400–$12,600/oz •Panic scenarios can briefly push gold toward 100% backing myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Re…