The two main goals: teaching investors about better investing through risk control, and tying all of the markets into a coherent whole.

Baltimore, Maryland
Joined March 2010
Have "AA" credits ever blown out by 40 bps within 60 days, w/ stocks at all-time highs and VIX < 20? No, until now. IG Hyperscaler Spreads in bps, OAS Aug: 143 Jul: 120 Jun: 90 May: 90 Apr: 95 Mar: 101 Feb: 82 Jan: 91 Dec: 80 Nov: 65 Oct: 54 Sep: 60 Aug: 61 Bloomberg, Barclays
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The staggering drop in new startups in China. Entrepreneurship is one barometer of authoritarianism and its effect on culture. In the long run, authoritarian economies decline because they forestall disruption, and thereby forestall progress.
If we deregulate, we win in the long run. China and the authoritarian regimes will stagnate in the long run because censoring ideas forestalls disruption. Limiting dissenting ideas limits progress. From: m.youtube.com/watch?v=GiNkEc…
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If you’re wondering what the Taiwan dollar appreciation is all about… For years, the U.S. has diplomatically signaled it believes Taiwan is engaging in unfair currency manipulation that favors its exporters. This echoes its China narrative. Unlike China, however, Taiwan’s economy is less centrally controlled. The main way the “manipulation” occurs is via Taiwanese life insurers and liability driven investment managers responding to the incentives at hand. This includes anticipating continued USD inflows, and reinvesting them in long term U.S. assets (USTs, corp bonds and MBS) rather than cashing them in immediately. This is on the assumption that the TWD is unlikely to appreciate against the USD. The TWD weakeness is thus engineered via delayed FX repatriation. Either way, this has resulted in a large unhedged FX position. If tariffs are going to knock the ability to continue generating USD yield due to less available USD to reinvest, then life insurers will finally be mindful to hedge their pre-existing positions in case the USD depreciates vs the local currency. But the hedging itself neutralises the export advantages. Either way it highlights what a more balanced exchange rate should look like and could play into upcoming trade negotiations. It also, however, sets the TWD apart from the yuan and juxtaposes the relative exposures. And yet there is an important difference vs the situation in China. Taiwan’s capital account is open. Ultimately, that means a much larger share of Taiwanese businesses are owned by foreign investors. That includes TMSC which is more than 70% foreign owned. Hence what’s bad for Taiwanese exporters is also bad for the foreign owners of those businesses. A rebalancing that potentially hurts those owners brings in a whole bunch of other geopolitical factors into play. For one thing, it potentially neutralises Taiwan in interesting ways.
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If America would have elected these great men, we wouldn’t be in the train wreck we are in now. This is the last Republican ticket that had a conscience.
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David Merkel retweeted
Bill Ackman
@BillAckman20 Feb 2025
Worth a read.
GeoConfirmed UKR - Misinformation by President Trump. While we typically refrain from political commentary, President Donald Trump's recent statement regarding the war in Ukraine is so egregious that we feel compelled to respond. Several claims made by President Trump have already been debunked. We've included responses from Grok AI for each claim, demonstrating that even Grok refutes the misinformation spread by the president. In this thread, we will provide geolocated footage as a reminder to everyone that Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marking the beginning of this war. 1) The United States has not spent $350 billion on this war, nor has it outspent Europe by $200 billion. In fact, European contributions have surpassed those of the US. Moreover, a significant portion of the American military aid (around 90% !) is spend in the US, reinvesting in the US economy. statista.com/statistics/1499… eeas.europa.eu/delegations/u… ifw-kiel.de/publications/new… csis.org/analysis/where-miss… (Grok: xitter.cf/i/grok/share/9grtpN5K2…) 2) President Zelensky did not claim that half the American money sent to Ukraine is "missing". He stated that half of the promised funds had not been received, which is a crucial distinction. csis.org/analysis/where-miss… politifact.com/factchecks/20… edition.cnn.com/2025/02/19/p… (Grok: xitter.cf/i/grok/share/x2J4XJgAu…) 3) Ukrainian constitution prohibits elections during wartime, a measure designed to protect the democratic process from foreign interference, particularly given Russia's known capabilities in this area... foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/11… edition.cnn.com/2024/03/30/e… united24media.com/war-in-ukr… (Grok: xitter.cf/i/grok/share/iNgj4reyI…) 4) President Zelensky is not a dictator, as evidenced by Ukraine's constitutional framework and his commitment to holding elections once hostilities cease. In contrast, it's worth noting that President Putin consistently wins elections in Russia with implausibly high percentages of votes, with opposition that 'falls out of windows", is poisened or jailed, raising questions about the true nature of Russia's electoral process. europarl.europa.eu/doceo/doc… oscepa.org/en/news-a-media/p… osce.usmission.gov/on-the-ru… japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/0… bbc.com/news/world-europe-68… (Grok: xitter.cf/i/grok/share/aK1JCZlsa…) 5) President Zelensky has a approval rate above 50% and not 4%. 4% is Russian disinformation. edition.cnn.com/2025/02/19/p… kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=re… euronews.com/2025/02/19/zele… abcnews.go.com/International… (Grok: xitter.cf/i/grok/share/IHyHHTkKe…) 6) There was no NATO expansion to the East, as NATO itself cannot expand. Instead, democratic countries independently decide whether they want to become members of the alliance. The process of joining NATO is voluntary and involves multiple steps, including meeting specific requirements and completing a formal application process. The fact that many of Russia's former neighbors have chosen to seek NATO membership speaks volumes about their perception of Russia and their desire for collective security. The decision of these nations to pursue NATO membership reflects their sovereign right to determine their own foreign policy and security arrangements. It also indicates a preference for the stability and security guarantees that NATO membership offers, rather than remaining under Russian influence. Regarding the famous 'promise': Article 103 of the UN Charter establishes a clear hierarchy in international law. It states that obligations under the UN Charter prevail over obligations under any other international agreement in case of conflict. This supremacy extends beyond just treaties, as it is generally understood to also apply to customary international law. The hierarchy can be summarized as follows: 1) UN Charter obligations 2) Other treaties and customary international law 3) Non-treaty international texts 4) Political promises or commitments 5) Historical claims Russia's invasion of Ukraine clearly violates fundamental principles of the UN Charter, including the prohibition on the use of force against the territorial integrity of another state. Any attempts to justify this action based on lower-ranking considerations like political promises or historical claims are legally irrelevant. euvsdisinfo.eu/report/there-… nato.int/cps/ra/natohq/11520… iir.cz/lies-provocations-or-… (Grok: xitter.cf/i/grok/share/fb5Fnn3Do… and xitter.cf/i/grok/share/NgIPkpYvJ… and xitter.cf/i/grok/share/NgIPkpYvJ…) 8) Who initiated this nearly three-year-long war? RUSSIA. As a platform that has analyzed over 50,000 frames/videos related to the conflict, we will remind the president ,with geolocated footage, who started this war: RUSSIA. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, despite repeatedly denying any plans for invasion in the preceding days. xitter.cf/Mike_Pence/status/1892… edition.cnn.com/2025/02/19/p… (Grok: xitter.cf/i/grok/share/m1W0ZufMq…) --- 24 FEB 2022 - Russian tanks crossing the border from Belarus into Ukraine in Senkivka. 52.106063, 31.780644 4Q4J+C7C Sen'kivka, Chernihiv Oblast, Ukraine Sources: xitter.cf/Conflicts/status… 1/11
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David Merkel retweeted
Mr. President, Ukraine did not “start” this war. Russia launched an unprovoked and brutal invasion claiming hundreds of thousands of lives. The Road to Peace must be built on the Truth.🇺🇸🇺🇦 “Russia Invades Ukraine in Largest European Attack Since WWII” @FoxNews (February 24, 2022) foxnews.com/world/russian-in…
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Memo from associate counsel John Roberts to the Reagan administration regarding the legal validity of impoundment (i.e., having the president unilaterally reject spending that has already been appropriated by congress). The second paragraph is definitive.
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Being happily married is by far the largest predictor of overall happiness. Education, income, work satisfaction, and marriage per se don't even come close.
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David Merkel retweeted
I'm always surprised when people put 80-100% in the US. The market cap weight is already 10x larger in the US than any other country. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
USA now 66% of the ACWI - a new high
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David Merkel retweeted
#SSudanWatch🇸🇸: On Feb.10th, South Sudan’s Petrodar oil pipeline ruptured. Since then, the SSD pound has FALLEN ~56% against the USD. Without oil exports, SSD’s economy remains IN THE TANK.
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Economists: It's the annual rate of inflation that matters. Consumers: It's the cumulative weight of inflation that matters.
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*USERS REPORTING ISSUES WITH LIVE PRICING FOR S&P INDEXES *S&P 500 AND DJIA HAVE NOT TICKED SINCE 10:41 AM NY TIME
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Different kind of bond
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David Merkel retweeted
Some Evangelicals Want to Break Trump’s Hold on Their Faith bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… I'm an evangelical that is Biblically conservative, politically conservative (Reagan), but I hate what Trump has done to evangelicalism & politics.
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David Merkel retweeted
Billionaire Adani Says India Will Add $1 Trillion to GDP Every 12-18 Months bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Not likely. When this overindebted conglomateur flames out it will be stunning.
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David Merkel retweeted
I'm a big fan of OddLots, but it is kind of silly to call Roubini "prescient" in calling that inflation would persist back in 2020. His "call" has been whatever the bear case is at any given time. Obviously at some point, he was going to be "right."
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New York is now the nation's busiest port in a historic tipping point for U.S.-bound trade cnb.cx/3fhB7A1
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David Merkel retweeted
Join me @ the CFA Society Baltimore's Big Annual Conference "Investing In A Post Pandemic World" web.cvent.com/event/e6a56f76… April 13, 2022 12:00 PM-6:00 PM @ The Four Seasons Hotel in Baltimore. Speakers include: Dr. Anirban Basu & Edward Byers. Topics: ESG, DEI, Value & Alt Income
David Merkel retweeted
On Wed., several crypto CEOs appeared before Congress to fight for tailor-made regulations for crypto. If it walks like a duck & quacks like a duck, it's a duck. Don't regulate it like a dog. Existing bank/securities regulations are sufficient for crypto. wsj.com/articles/crypto-ceos…
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