@AlbertoFNeumann

📈 Portfolio Hedging & Derivatives Pro 💼 🔄 Prefer reposts 💬 Discord open only with password from @EWTracker

Financial District, NYC
Joined June 2016
Another week, another record: 16 positions closed, 141 open. Low $VIX is helping existing premium decay fast, but front-month credits are slim, so we’re mostly working the back month. All according to plan. $AAOI $ANET $CAT $DRAM $META $MSFT $RUT $SHOP $SMH $SOXX #ThetaGang #OptionsTrading #PremiumSelling
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If a human hacked @huggingface, we'd be talking CFAA & lawyers. But @OpenAI's agents broke containment and compromised its systems. Now @nvidia is buying it. @JensenHuang @ClementDelangue @sama: who owns the claim when the deal closes? Still no public lawsuit. $NVDA #NVIDIA
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Great week close. 20 spreads expired safely. The evolution of the way I trade: less prediction, more structure. Diversified risk clusters, defined risk, wide OTM strikes, low portfolio beta, and letting probabilities do the heavy lifting. Boring is beautiful. $AAPL $ARM $BABA $CRM $GDX $HOOD $META $QQQ $RUT $TEM $XLE
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Yesterday’s $RUT spreads expired safely OTM. 3085/3095 Call Credit: 7.29% away 2545/2535 Put Credit: 11.49% away Another clean expiration. $RUT #OptionsTrading #IronCondor
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Alberto F. Neumann retweeted
WEEKLY WRAP | NEW RECORD 🚀 106 positions expired today. We finish the week with a new record: 185 OPEN POSITIONS • 18 active risk clusters • Beta: ~0.10–0.20 • SPX Delta: ~0.68 • Only ~16% portfolio utilization • 3 straight weeks without a single alert forcing an adjustment And this wasn’t exactly a quiet week: Fed, rising oil, and today’s massive expiration/witching session. Yet the portfolio required zero defensive adjustments. That’s what I’ve been trying to prove with this portfolio: SCALABILITY. Can we keep adding positions without simply adding risk? Can we diversify across risk clusters while controlling beta, delta, Greeks and capital utilization? So far: 185 positions. 18 risk clusters. 16% utilization. Near-flat directional exposure. 3 weeks without a forced adjustment. There is still a LOT of room to scale. Today’s expirations included: $AAPL AFRM ALAB AMAT $AMD ARKK $ARM $BABA CAT CRM $CRWD CRWV DDOG DELL DIS EEM EWY EWZ FCX GLW GM LEN GOOG $HOOD HUT IGV $INTC INTU JNJ LRCX MRNA $MSFT NEM $NFLX OKTA PANW $PLTR $QQQ RSP RUT $SMH TEAM TEM TJX $UBER USO WMT XLE XLI XLV $XOM The goal isn’t 185 trades. The goal is to make 185 positions behave like one controlled portfolio. And we’re getting there. #OptionsTrading
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WEEKLY WRAP | NEW RECORD 🚀 106 positions expired today. We finish the week with a new record: 185 OPEN POSITIONS • 18 active risk clusters • Beta: ~0.10–0.20 • SPX Delta: ~0.68 • Only ~16% portfolio utilization • 3 straight weeks without a single alert forcing an adjustment And this wasn’t exactly a quiet week: Fed, rising oil, and today’s massive expiration/witching session. Yet the portfolio required zero defensive adjustments. That’s what I’ve been trying to prove with this portfolio: SCALABILITY. Can we keep adding positions without simply adding risk? Can we diversify across risk clusters while controlling beta, delta, Greeks and capital utilization? So far: 185 positions. 18 risk clusters. 16% utilization. Near-flat directional exposure. 3 weeks without a forced adjustment. There is still a LOT of room to scale. Today’s expirations included: $AAPL AFRM ALAB AMAT $AMD ARKK $ARM $BABA CAT CRM $CRWD CRWV DDOG DELL DIS EEM EWY EWZ FCX GLW GM LEN GOOG $HOOD HUT IGV $INTC INTU JNJ LRCX MRNA $MSFT NEM $NFLX OKTA PANW $PLTR $QQQ RSP RUT $SMH TEAM TEM TJX $UBER USO WMT XLE XLI XLV $XOM The goal isn’t 185 trades. The goal is to make 185 positions behave like one controlled portfolio. And we’re getting there. #OptionsTrading
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Three spreads expired this week, all comfortably OTM: $CRWD 165/155 Put Credit Spread: 20.15% away from the short strike $PLTR 217.5/225 Call Credit Spread: 30.06% away $SOXX 370/360 Put Credit Spread: 29.80% away. The experiment continues: more independent bets, more diversification, more distance from the market, but not necessarily more work. 179 spreads sounds like chaos. Yet for the second week in a row: ZERO orders. No adjustments. No defensive trades. Nothing to do. 17 risk clusters, 60+ underlyings, 31.78% avg distance OTM and SPX delta at 1.4. Scale without turning the portfolio into a full-time firefight. $CRWD $PLTR $SOXX #OptionsTrading #IronCondor #RiskManagement #ThetaGang
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Weekly recap: 11 positions expired today across $ARKK $CRWD $EWY $QQQ $RUT $SOXX $WDC. Another portfolio record this week: 168 open positions. Even better, we just completed a full week without a single alert requiring action on any position. Next target: 300 positions, while continuing to diversify beyond our current 16 risk clusters. Starting now, I’ll also include our portfolio Greeks in these recaps. They are absurdly conservative for a portfolio of this size. Great week, but definitely not our best one yet. #OptionsTrading #IronCondors #PortfolioManagement #RiskManagement #ThetaGang
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Another useful update to my dynamic spreadsheet: The TREND tab now shows whether each underlying is bullish, bearish, or neutral, while Column A checks whether my Iron Condor skew still matches that trend. I’m not using charts to enter trades. I’m using them to structure risk. And this does NOT replace my 20 or 30 delta alerts, depending on expiration. It’s simply another layer of protection, helping me manage skew, maximize credits through the life of the trade, and reduce risk. One rule remains absolute: respect the expected move. I will never skew an IC beyond it. Charts don’t tell me WHAT to trade. They help me decide HOW to structure it.
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A month ago, $QQQ and $RUT were two of my biggest positions.Today, those positions expired, and neither ticker is a major concentration anymore.I did not rotate out manually. My filters did.As volatility got crushed in $QQQ and $RUT, premiums became less attractive, fewer trades qualified, and those tickers stopped growing in the portfolio.That is the whole point: every position has to fight for its place.Even the bigger positions were diversified across strikes and expirations.Still diversified across 16 sectors. Still collecting theta. Still adding. Still letting the portfolio adapt as opportunities change.Simple process. So far, so good.#OptionsTrading #ThetaGang #PortfolioManagement #RiskManagement #Diversification #Trading #Investing $QQQ $RUT
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The self-driving debate is usually reduced to one question: Is AI safer than the average human driver? I think that misses the more interesting point. There is a difference between seeing danger and preventing danger. $TSLA, Waymo and other autonomous systems have extraordinary sensors: cameras, radar, LiDAR and 360-degree awareness. In many ways, they can see more than we can. But experienced motorcyclists learn something different. We don't just react to what a car is doing. We constantly think about what it might do next. Is that car drifting because the driver is distracted? Is that wheel starting to turn? Is someone about to take that open gap? Does that driver actually see me? If he does something stupid in two seconds, where is my escape route? A good rider changes position before the dangerous maneuver happens. You slow down. Create space. Leave the blind spot. Change lane position. Give up the right of way when necessary. You remove yourself from the accident before there is technically an accident to avoid. That is the distinction I find fascinating about autonomous driving. AI already has incredible eyes. The next challenge is not simply: "What is happening around me?" It is: "What stupid thing could happen next, and how do I position myself now so it doesn't become an emergency?" Maybe autonomous driving eventually becomes far better at this than any human. I actually expect it will. But comparing AI with the average driver sets the bar too low. The more interesting benchmark is the defensive thinking developed by highly trained, experienced riders: See the accident before it exists, and make sure you're somewhere else when it happens. $TSLA $GOOGL #Tesla #Waymo #AutonomousDriving #SelfDriving #AI #Motorcycles #RoadSafety
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Another record: 154 open positions. Goal was 150. Today’s 15 adds touched 6 risk clusters: $ARKK $ARM $IGV $KWEB $LITE $QQQ $RUT $SOXX $WDC $XLE. The book now spans 53 underlyings across 16 clusters. More positions, smaller risk, broader diversification. #Options #RiskManagement
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Yesterday I said the best NVDA earnings trade was no trade. NVDA stayed inside the expected move, so was I wrong? No. The outcome is not the point. Trading is about the risk you accepted for the return you expected. If you risked 20% of your portfolio and made money, great. But what would have happened if NVDA had surprised in the other direction? In a low-volatility market, expectations are compressed, and compressed expectations are easier to surprise. A profitable trade can still be a bad trade. I made a couple hundred dollars from theta decay today. Boring is fine. I am not trying to win today. I am trying to survive thousands of trades. $NVDA
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Guess the underlying. hehe
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My take on $NVDA earnings today? The best trade is not to trade it. VIX around 15 means market-wide implied volatility is relatively low, and that can compress the expected move to levels that may badly underestimate what earnings can actually deliver. Earnings uncertainty only makes sense to trade when the potential reward compensates you for that uncertainty. Here, I don't think it does. Why take the binary risk? Let $NVDA report. Let the market reprice it. Then trade the opportunities that appear afterward across semiconductors, chips, and related names. Sometimes the best earnings trade is the one you make after earnings.
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Another week closed. Another record. We’re now at 145 open positions, steadily moving toward 150. And at this point, I actually think 150 may end up being too small. Why? Because volatility remains low, capital usage is low, and the market is forcing us to work farther out in time and much farther OTM. That means more positions, not necessarily more risk. We keep spreading the exposure, skewing each trade according to the trend, and letting distance and time do the work. The month is not over yet, but so far, so good. Everything continues to work according to plan. $AAOI $ARKK $DRAM $EEM $GDX $IGV $LITE $NBIS $QQQ $RUT $SMH $SOXX $XLV #OptionsTrading #PremiumSelling #ThetaGang #Trading
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Why haven’t we traded $SPCX? Because I already paid for this lesson with $CRWV. $SPCX IPO’d with less than 5% of its shares freely trading. Even after the August unlocks, only roughly 14% of shares have become eligible. More are coming. (Reuters) So I don’t care that options are liquid. I don’t care that IV dropped from 100%+ toward 60%. I don’t care what the expected move says. You have barely 2 months of trading history, no mature 52-week volatility data, and a float that is STILL changing. That is not a normal statistical environment for a premium seller. We learned with $CRWV what happens when lockups suddenly change supply. I don’t need to learn it twice. Let the insiders unlock. Let the float mature. Let real supply and demand establish itself. Then I’ll sell premium. Until then, calling this intelligent premium selling is just pretending incomplete data is good data. $SPCX $CRWV $TSLA #SpaceX #OptionsTrading #PremiumSelling #Volatility #Trading
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Started $GDX with an iron condor. Gold kept rising. I rolled the losing calls and added put spreads. Now: 5 puts vs. 2 calls. I don’t care what you think about gold. I don’t care what chartists say. I don’t care what bonds say about gold. I don’t care about the gold/bond relationship. I don’t care if Bessent buys more bonds. Price moves. I adjust. I widen winning puts for extra credit too, but NEVER close to the expected move. One expires today roughly 35% OTM. Chasing $GDX higher with your puts just because they’re winning is insane. One reversal and your “safe” side becomes the problem. Double whammy. Add size. Widen intelligently. Collect credit. Preserve distance. I don’t predict gold. I trade what it does. $GDX $GLD $IAU $GDXJ $NEM $GOLD #Gold #GDX #OptionsTrading #PremiumSelling
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Yesterday $MRNA closed +177% in one day. Experience in trading is built by making mistakes, understanding them, and creating rules so you don't pay for the same lesson twice. One of ours: don't sell upside premium in pharma. A trial result, FDA decision, new drug, or breakthrough can reprice a stock instantly. That's why we generally avoid pharma upside exposure. If we're involved at all, positions are small and usually on the downside. You can't eliminate tail risk. That's why we trade small. But risk management starts even earlier: Before you enter the trade. $MRNA #OptionsTrading #RiskManagement #PremiumSelling
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