$DOV.MI doValue investor day takeaways: EBITDA guidance for 2026 was lowered from €300m to €270–290m. This was expected given Italy’s underperformance. Management guided €330–350m EBITDA by 2029, comfortably ahead of anyone’s expectations. The interesting part is the mix. coeo EBITDA is expected to grow at a ~30% CAGR, driven largely by margin expansion from 28% to 47%. coeo has had to hire a lot of AI specialists to automate its systems, but those systems now seem to be in place, so operating leverage should kick in. Although this kind of margin expansion sounds unrealistic, the margin target is less aggressive than it sounds. coeo already ran at ~38% in H1 2026. Annualizing H1 2026, the 2029 plan implies only ~8–12% revenue CAGR and margin expansion from 38% to 47%. To me the margin target is still extremely ambitious, as you would expect a lot of competition in a growing market with those kinds of margins. The growth, however, doesn’t look overly optimistic at all. The legacy NPE guidance, on the other hand, is very conservative. The plan assumes historically low NPL inflows and collections continue, essentially that the market stays at its cyclical low. Importantly, the decline reflects market volumes, not share loss. In every market, most notably Greece, doValue is winning a larger share of new NPL flow than its current market share. Management assumes a significant revenue decline, mostly offset by cost cuts from rolling out AI across the parts of the process where coeo has already implemented it. They plan to return €150–300m through 2029 via dividends, buybacks and potential bolt-on M&A, which is ~43–86% of market cap. They also launched a €10m buyback (~3% of shares) today, saying the stock is significantly undervalued and buybacks are the best current use of incremental capital. All in all, thesis still intact and if you want a deeper dive into the company, check out my Substack (Link in bio).

While writing the portfolio update, I realised I had too much to say for one post, so I'm splitting it into parts. I wanted to give my two new positions a proper write-up, since neither is widely followed on X. As you may have seen in my last post, I came across a LinkedIn post that changed my entire thesis on one of them, so I won't be writing that one up. The other deep dive is out now. Go check it out.

Spent days researching a stock, bought in, and almost done with my write-up when a LinkedIn post by an employee flipped the whole thesis. Probably selling on Monday. Hate it, but the hours I put in aren't a reason to stay in.

This weekend I'm posting a portfolio update with 5 new pitches: - Illiquid Italian company providing zero commentary to the markets. I found out that they got permitted to start a new facility that could almost double earnings, trades at 2.5x current earnings - Stable, growing company at 1x EBITDA and 3x FCF - A Speculative stock with massive upside, soon to be uplisted to Nasdaq - Roll-up firm buying companies at <1x sales and offshoring work to push margins above 20%. Trades at 3.5x FCF - A stock trading at 0.25x book and 2x on weak earnings Plus short updates on $SPCB, $DBO.TO and $LODE Sorry for not writing in a while, I have been working and studying.

$SPCB Another contract win, but the comments really caught my interest. "We are proud to continue our 100% opportunity conversion rate with this new win in New York State," commented Ordan Trabelsi, President and CEO of SuperCom. "This new contract demonstrates New York State's continued adoption of SuperCom's solutions and builds on our 100% submitted RFP win rate in Europe this year. Our consistent wins across multiple regions reflect SuperCom's growing global recognition and the increasing demand for our solutions. "

$SPCB The price action here is strange. Down 1% on the news? This alone probably added ~20% to H2'26 growth. Yes, it's mostly a one-time payment, but doesn't the market see the momentum this company is building with all these contracts / orders they are getting?

$SNWV I knew this was a risk, though I thought it was rather small. Anyway, it hurts and if this proposal goes through, or even partly, it changes my original thesis quite a lot, so I decided to sell most of my position until we get more clarity. NFA

$SNWV Glad I broke my rule of not doubling down on companies😅

Portfolio up +7.5% today🔥 My two largest positions: $SPCB +18% $SNWV +15% Still long runway ahead for both. I usually hate doubling down on a position, but I broke my own rule and added to $SNWV at $9. Sometimes the setup is too strong to ignore.

Talkpool $TALK.ST keeps on executing. The stock surged 36% yesterday and is now up 180% since my initial pitch. To be frank, I did sell a small chunk of my position recently, as I believe the market is finally starting to price in their growth story. However, the deal announced yesterday is a game-changer: a €10m contract over two years in Germany, which I expect to yield roughly 20% EBITDA margins. That translates to an additional €1m in EBITDA per year. To put that into perspective, even after yesterday's rally, Talkpool’s market cap sits at just €12m. The valuation remains compelling, which is why I'm still holding a sizable 10% position. The only reason I trimmed was to reallocate capital into another high-conviction play where I see an more asymmetric risk-to-reward ratio right now. I believe there is still plenty of upside left here.

Has anyone mapped out how serious SolarCycle is as a competitor to $LODE? $68M raised and Georgia plant already running.

$SPCB up ~20% today! SuperCom just signed and launched a national electronic monitoring contract in Sweden with a customer-published budget of $75 million. Almost like I called this one.

$SNWV Sanuwave -40% today. Ouch. They cut guidance from $11.1m–$11.6m to $8.5m–$9.5m. That's a 20–25% reduction, which is massive. The real question is whether this is a structural problem or just a rough quarter. The CEO's explanation: widespread CMS reimbursement clawbacks on skin subs and allografts have been far worse than expected, pushing wound care practices out of business. Some of those closures are flooding the secondary market with used Snwv systems, cannibalizing new system sales. Is this the full story? What comforts me is that applicator volumes are on pace for a record Q2 consumable shipment volume. That means the entire guidance cut came from system sales, not consumables. My rough math suggests new system guidance dropped from ~145–165 units down to ~50–80. For context, 168 systems were retired as "discontinued" in Q4'25, and some of those have most likely found their way back into the market. That explains part of the shortfall. Combine it with capital-constrained practices pulling back due to reimbursement chaos, and I believe this is most likely the reason for this guidance miss. My one real concern is whether the market is shifting to a competing product. I haven't found any evidence of that. If you have, let me know. So to me this looks like a short-term headwind, not anything that breaks my thesis. And the fact that consumables are tracking toward a record quarter actually reinforces the core thesis. The install base is being used. Practices that own the device are running more treatments. Currently Sanuwave is trading at under 2x sales, 80% gross margins, and meaningful operating leverage ahead as the company scales. Even if you assume just 50 new systems added per quarter (same as the lower end of this horrible quarter) going forward, that's 200 annually, a roughly 15% increase to the 1,382 active install base, and should be quite proportional to the growth in consumable revenue. That's the conservative case. The bull case is actually more interesting. Once the reimbursement uncertainty clears, I think new system sales accelerate hard. Ultramist just got added to Healogics, the largest wound care clinic network in the US. They're onboarding large resellers who ignored the device before because skin sub commissions were so fat there was no reason to push anything else. The salesforce has been expanded. These are things that didn't exist a year ago. Would I buy here? Honestly yes, but my position is already large and I try to ride winners rather than double down on pain. Looking forward to hearing Morgan Frank at MCC's event on Thursday. That call will tell us a lot. Not financial advice. DYODD.