@Akghoxtt
Joined September 2026
  • Tweets148
  • Following806
  • Followers270
BREAKING: The US economy has now experienced 78 consecutive months of expansion, the 6th-longest business cycle since 1854. This is well above the long-term average of ~49 months and the median of ~38 months. By comparison, the longest period without a recession was between 2009 and 2020, at 128 months. All 5 of the most recent US expansions rank among the 7 longest economic growth periods since business cycle dating began in 1854. Unconventional monetary policy, historically large budget deficits, alongside the AI investment boom, appear to be extending the duration of business cycles. The data says the US economy is remarkably strong.
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Kepler’s Second Law says that a line joining a planet to the Sun sweeps out equal areas in equal intervals of time. So a planet moves faster near perihelion and slower near aphelion. The speed changes, but the rate at which orbital area is swept out remains constant. A beautiful geometric signature of angular momentum conservation.
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Visa能成为全球顶级支付巨头，根本不是单纯靠商业模式多厉害、管理有多牛。 它的根基，是吃了美元国际化的时代红利，背靠美国全球地位，拿到了全球跨境支付的入场券。 Circle（CRCL）的成长逻辑和它高度同源。 市场选择USDC，不完全是单纯的商业需求驱动，本质是美元体系下的被动取舍。 美元数字化大趋势摆在眼前，合规美元稳定币赛道供给稀缺，机构、链上生态几乎没有更好的替代选项。 这就是时代赋予Circle的底层壁垒。 只要美元的全球地位不变，数字美元的需求持续扩张，USDC就拥有巨大的成长想象空间。 Visa是实体世界的美元支付公路，Circle就是链上世界的数字美元基础设施。 时代红利是它最硬核的护城河。
wu fan
@wufantouzi
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有很多人觉得crcl分给渠道的太多了 自己拿的太少了 我反而觉得crcl现在应该亏钱发展 把美债收益全部返回给渠道 最大化拓展usdc的市占率 一个利润全部返回给渠道的稳定币 1、渠道没有自己做稳定币的动机了 渠道推的多赚的都是自己的 只会更卖力推 2、其他竞争对手敢不敢跟？ crcl是上市公司 可以通过增发股票不停融资 打赢这场战其他竞争对手有机会吗 3、crcl一直不赚钱不等于未来不赚钱 usdc做到几万亿美金发行量的时候 今天这一年几十亿美金的渠道费用还在意吗 合同到时候可以调整 其他收益到时候也不小 甚至渠道一直这样给crcl也有很多地方赚钱 4、亏钱发展不好吗 亚马逊亏了十几年 一直是抢占市场现在看策略完胜 tsla、spacex也都亏了很久 市占率才是王道 5、什么时候可以缓缓 好好给股东赚点钱 发行量超过了usdt的时候 usdc成为最普及的稳定币的时候
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Goldman shows 83bps of downside to the 10yr yield NTM Brent retreating by 25% to $77
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The Biggest Risk Everyone Already Knows About "Ever since the Great Financial Crisis people have been asking “What can go wrong next?” No one really asks what can go right? I suppose that is the nature of the finance business." buff.ly/RYOtugx by @awealthofcs
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Treasuries are suffering their worst long-run returns in 100 years. The last time stocks & commodities saw returns this poor, it marked a generational buying opportunity.
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The US will sacrifice the dollar to save the bond market. It doesn't matter who is in power or how tough they act... When push comes to shove, they will always choose to print to save the bond market. Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan put it best: "The US can pay any debt it has, because we can always print money to do that." Greenspan = Powell = Warsh = the next Fed Chair Just look at the poor fellow next to him as he slowly realizes... We all don't own enough hard assets for what's coming.
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The correlation between oil and long bonds ($USO - $TLT) has hit an all-time inverted extreme. Up until now, it would have been reasonable to expect higher oil = higher yields. But that trade may have just run out of steam, as this series is highly mean reverting. A breakdown in correlation between oil and bonds can play out in one of two ways: - Oil moves lower but yields remain stubbornly high; this is the bullish setup, as it argues yields are high because growth is strong (arguable, but that’s a different discussion); - Oil rises, but yields move lower; this is the bearish scenario, as it suggests growth is contracting due to higher oil prices; The way this plays out is the key to the path forward for equities.
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每次说交易，都有人逼逼赖赖，这个有风险，这个成功率低， 地球online 这个游戏 到底有啥是没风险，成功率高，回报率高的啊？ 就单单上个大学，我小学一年级大概有 100 人左右，最后只有 5 个人上了大学，连简单上个大学都只有 5% 1/20 的概率，20 个才出一个啊？ 上了大学就发财了吗？额，大学毕业啥样你们也知道。 我父母从小只会跟我说，好好读书，考上大学，以后不要回来了， 从没跟我说过， 读书有啥用，成功率那么低，赶紧初中毕业了出去打工。 是的，我们那因为太穷太落后，很多父母都是跟子女这么说的：读书有啥用，初中毕业就出去打工赶紧挣钱。 河南人的成人礼，是一张通往江浙沪的车票。 我父母没有这么跟我们说，不是因为他们多有眼见，纯粹是身边有榜样驱动， 因为一个大伯的孩子是村里第一个大学生，90 年代初上的大学，毕业后就分配到县医院去了，过上了他们眼里不用辛苦种地的舒服日子。 交易最坏能咋样？亏点本金，对吧，这是最坏结果了， 如果你负债累累，借了各种网贷，那是你自己的问题。 除了做交易，普通人任何逆天改命的机会，基本都涉嫌违法犯罪，是可能要坐牢的，你懂吗？？？ 在中国，没写在刑法里的，普通人压根没机会，普通人赚钱的路子都写在刑法里。 我身边所有认识 白手起家 从 0 做到 1000W 的，没有一个不在违法犯罪，全都都走犯罪的边缘上， 基本都涉嫌，洗钱，盗版，走私，非法经营…… 无一例外。 一个潮汕的朋友，走私香烟的，被抓了， 有走私手表的，至今还做的很大， 有走私 iPhone 的，就是华强北二手机那些当年很赚钱，后来太卷了就不做了， 有做礼品卡的，因为赚到大钱就不做了，怕被抓…… 对比一下，做交易有啥风险？起码没有坐牢的风险吧？！ 有些人啊，就想 躺着舒舒服服的赚确定性的大钱，可惜你没有个好爹，你爹不姓赵，这种好事轮不到你， 普通人，就是踏马的去卖逼，还有感染艾滋梅毒的风险呢？👊👊👊
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The US has the lowest equity risk premium among major developed economies.
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US equity and bond market volatility are moving in opposite directions: The Volatility Index, $VIX, to MOVE Index ratio is down to 0.15, its lowest since December 2014. This ratio has fallen -31.5% over the last 2 weeks as the Treasury market volatility intensified. Over this period, the MOVE Index has surged +25.9 points, or +32.1%, to 106.6, its highest since March 31st. At the same time, $VIX has declined -1.7 points, or -9.5%, to 16.0, well below its 2026 average of 18.3. To put this into perspective, during the March to April 2025 correction and the March 2026 pullback, this ratio jumped to 0.37 and 0.36, respectively, as equity volatility followed the surge in bond volatility. Is stock market volatility set to follow again this time?
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买30年美债，比买标普500更赚钱❗️ 这是2000年以来第一次❗️ 美债10年期：5.33%。2002年以来最高。 美债30年期：5.63%–5.67%。 英国30年期：6.02%。1998年以来首次。 三个数字，三个“几十年最高”。 原因不复杂：油价在涨，通胀预期在升，市场押注各国央行还得加息。 但真正的问题是： 当无风险收益率高到5.3%， 你还会去买一个没有现金流、波动率30%的资产吗？ 债券市场在说一件事： 钱正在变得“值钱”。
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Someone call the house. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield looks set to close higher than it opened for an 8th consecutive week. The last occurrence was in Oct 2022 which marked the start of bull market for the S&P 500 $SPX
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is on pace to close higher than its weekly open for an 8th consecutive week, a streak seen only seven other times since 1980. The chart also shows S&P 500 forward returns following prior 8-week streaks, with generally stronger performance over the following 6–12 months.

ALT U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is on pace to close higher than its weekly open for an 8th consecutive week, a streak seen only seven other times since 1980. The chart also shows S&P 500 forward returns following prior 8-week streaks, with generally stronger performance over the following 6–12 months.

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$SPX Seasonality Welcome to October!
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A lot of the action remains on the rate side, with the 10-year yield reaching 5.25% on Friday and the real yield rising to 2.82%. Most concerning in the chart below is the real rate spike above the economy’s speed limit (potential real GDP). Hopefully that speed limit will increase as the AI productivity miracle arrives at some point. If not, rates have reached the point at which the mountain of debt might get deemed unsustainable.
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Leverage in margin accounts stands at a very elevated level, suggesting that margin leverage has barely budged from June/July’s deleveraging and still presents a significant vulnerability for stocks.
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发现一个有趣的商品计算公式：BTCUSD * US10Y 在这个指数框架下，如果长端收益率处于低位，就会抵消BTC价格的下跌，因此2022年熊市在这里变成了横盘震荡... 同时，每轮牛市的顶点会恰好成为下轮熊市的底部，2018年熊市与2022年熊市皆是如此... 理解或解释这个指数的逻辑似乎有些难以表达，之后我会理清思路再说，如果你有更好的解释，我就当抛砖引玉，欢迎！
Crypto_Painter
@CryptoPainter
Sep 30
刚才核心 PCE 出炉，US10y 收益率快速回调，BTC 直接拉盘，真心以为这波可以走出强反弹了... 然后吃了个饭回来一看，现货溢价还在阴跌，4H线出现长上影，真心有点失望... 目前策略手里的多单已经没了，还在等回调之后做多... 但我看了下长端收益率又在涨了，如果系统接下来做多，大概率是要迎来一波回撤了... 即使如此，也坚决不干预！
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TLT 连续 5 天收在布林带下轨之下，成交量持续放大，IV Rank（隐含波动率百分位）爆表，教科书级别的空头极度拥挤与放量投降（Capitulation）特征, 以此反推10年期美债，也快要到阶段性顶部了。但说实话，利率高压制不了强盈利能力公司，比如大科技和半导体，影响不大。接着那看涨，9月中咱们抄底的半导体和大科技拿住了！！
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Stocks have outperformed Treasuries over the past decade by a margin approaching levels not seen in over 50 years. Bad news for bond investors? History suggests a different interpretation. We break down three reasons this extreme could set the stage for a reversal. 👇
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晚上有加仓了 16 万刀 CRCL ，这是我最后一次加仓了。 再调整下去也不打算买了。
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